Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Higgenbotham wrote:http://freedomoutpost.com/2014/08/fed-v ... apitalize/

Same as the 90 percent nazi tax back in the day. The desease never left.

jcsok wrote:H - Looking at the same seasonal tendency of major tops in late summer, therefore I'm short, expecting up to 2020 to continue to sell into this rally. Throwing more $$$ at a possible top, like I've thrown $$$ in the past 4 years at turning points, only to have the pain as the market keeps going. Keep thinking of John's mantra of the market will be irrational longer than I can remain solvent.

As A keeps reiterating, water, wheat, weather. If the volcano blows in Iceland, we WILL experience global cooling. I have written in previous posts that I expect a natural disaster to be the game changer in the global economy.

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

I think your very correct j

http://news.msn.com/world/volcano-erupt ... icials-say

It has been many decades since we had a summer like this here this cool.

"The ash was initially blowing to the southwest but has now turned to the southeast and we expect it to clip the edge of Australian airspace later today."

http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/

http://www.macminn.org/Fisher%20monograph.pdf

Rothschild-Stiglitz modality

eco317 results

A basic problem with probabilistic audits is that once they have achieved their purpose of deterring the bad types, there is no actual ex post incentive
for the company to spend resources to carry them out. Of course if the bad types know and expect this ahead of time, it won't deter them in the first place. So the company has to have a way to commit itself to carrying out investigations with the stated probability. In reality this may or may not be possible depending on the exact circumstances.

https://www.princeton.edu/~dixitak/Teac ... cept10.pdf

Frequency inspection Agent bias.

http://townhall.com/columnists/katiekie ... /page/full

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-2 ... ing-hands-

http://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ran ... al-impulse

Running From A Lion... Into A Bear... Bitten By A Snake. Amos listened and it was written.

Dietrich Bonhoeffer said, “Silence in the face of evil is itself evil.” Think what you will.

" One might ask the question, "Aren't American socialists in favor of their own country's survival?"
To answer this question, we must turn to abnormal psychology.

Other side of the coin to themes of collapse exist, 11 major ones (PS. Diamond has 5). 1) Depletion or cessation of vital
resources; 2) establishment of new resource base; 3) insurmountable catastrophe; 4) insufficient
response to circumstance; 5) other complex societies; 6) intruders; 7) class conflict, societal
contradictions, elite mismanagement; 8) social dysfunction; 9) mystical factors; 10) chance
concatenation of events; 11) economic factors. tainter

Human history is divided into three phases: (1)pre-industrial, (2)industrial, and (3)de-industrial.
Eco-Communalism movements add up to a sustainable world or globally coordinated efforts and initiatives result
in a new sustainability paradigm.
The Kardashev scale classifies civilizations based on their level of technological advancement, specifically measured by the amount
of energy a civilization is able to harness.

water wheat weather is short hand from the notes here...

Taxpayers cannot hold the ears of wolfs foreign and domestic. http://www.unrv.com/forum/topic/8852-ha ... gn-policy/
Attitude closed the borders more than barriers.....

aedens wrote:1) Depletion or cessation of vital
resources; 2) establishment of new resource base; 3) insurmountable catastrophe; 4) insufficient
response to circumstance; 5) other complex societies; 6) intruders; 7) class conflict, societal
contradictions, elite mismanagement; 8) social dysfunction; 9) mystical factors; 10) chance
concatenation of events; 11) economic factors. tainter

a, what would you say are the dominant factors present today?

1,7,8, and 11? with 3,4, and 10 probable? I guess I've basically been saying 3 and 10 are what will bring the system down.

http://ahabiblemoments.com/bible_histor ... uakes.html

#3 will end an age. What then takes place?
"And there were voices, and thunders, and lightnings; and there was a great earthquake, such as was not since men were upon the earth, so mighty an earthquake, and so great."

==============================================================
http://solarcycles.net/2014/08/29/last- ... of-august/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-3 ... 00-futures
1936 ‘General Theory’, John Maynard Keynes said that he looked forward to the “Euthanasia of the Rentier”, to be replaced
by “communal saving by the agency of the state.

Latency of effect to crack up boom will ensue but not today..... Goes back to our political smoothing discussions....Sun Apr 20, 2014

thread May 21, 2014 : We will see more soon enough by the end of the year. Fixed commodity contracts will expire for some cluster groups for the next few years and the transition will entail convertibility letter of credit with energy margin supply chains movements into 2018 -2020.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-3 ... itizenship moving faster than noted...

Trying not to let the pagans eat each other h.
==============================================================
http://tsjwang.blogspot.com/2013/10/wir ... ation.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4nE_DZ-MXE

Adjectives are just messengers being shot.

1861 Internecine Slaughter, not civil war

“I have two great enemies, the Southern Army in front of me, and the financial institutions in the rear. Of the two, the one in my rear is my greatest foe.”
One month after the inauguration of President Abraham Lincoln, the American Civil War got underway . . .
The real reason for the war is that . . .
Northern industrialists had used trade tariffs to prevent the Southern States from buying cheaper European goods. Europe subsequently retaliated by stopping cotton imports from the South. Thus the South were being forced to pay more for goods whilst having their income slashed.
This is when the money changers saw the opportunity to divide and conquer America by plunging it into Civil War. This is confirmed by Otto Von Bismarck when he was Chancellor of Germany
(1871 - 1890), who stated,
"The division of the United States into federations of equal force was decided long before the Civil War by the high financial powers of Europe, these bankers were afraid that the United States if they remained as one block and as one nation, would attain economic and financial independence which would upset their financial domination over the world.

One might ask the question, "Aren't American socialists in favor of their own country's survival?"
To answer this question, we must turn to abnormal psychology.

http://tsjwang.blogspot.com/2013/10/wir ... ation.html
http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/ eyes open no fear
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4nE_DZ-MXE

08/08/2014 BKEP

Excerpts

2. THE BIG PICTURE
Part of the trouble is probably due to the
Pollyanna nature of mankind: we much prefer to feel that
everything will turn out fine regardless of the difficulty of the
problem or our limited understanding of it. We are good at burying
our heads in the sand. Also, businesses and advertising paint
unrealistically rosy pictures of the future in order to increase their
profits, politicians do it to get elected, and highly religious peoples
trust God to protect them from harm.

13. INFRASTRUCTURE
Huge quantities of hundreds of different natural resources have
been used to make existing infrastructures. But most of these
water-supply systems, sewers, highways, streets, bridges, tunnels,
railways, airports, docks, dams, levies, marine locks, canals, jails,
libraries, courthouses, museums, concert halls, power plants,
power lines, communication systems and homes were built long
ago; some of them over a hundred years ago when the resources
they required were plentiful and usually close by. But now a high
percentage of this essential infrastructure is worn out, obsolete,
inadequate, too small, or has become dangerous, and needs to be
replaced.

Most of these must continue to function while their replacements
are being built. Therefore the resources each contains must remain
on the job and additional natural resources will be required for the
replacements. Thus the resources in existing infrastructures can’t
be recycled until the replacement infrastructures are up and
running. Since most of the new items will be bigger than the
originals (to serve a larger and more demanding population) over
twice the original resources may be in use in the interim. We will
be hard-pressed to find enough of all of the required materials for
these duplicate infrastructures.

What have we done to our Earth? Let us compare the endless
massive things man has built to the endless massive holes in the
ground we have produced in obtaining materials for building those
things. Think of the deep open-pit copper mines, strip coal mines
that used to be mountains, dry river beds, huge stone-quarry pits,
sink-holes caused by abandoned mines, mountains of waste rock
and slag, square miles of toxic chemical wasteland, huge uranium mine
pits, officially homeless radioactive nuclear wastes, polluted
rivers, and enormous clear-cut areas that used to be forests. These
and similar monstrosities are behind the facades of manmade
structures.

14. THE RISE AND FALL OF THE HUMAN EMPIRE
But the fall of the Human Empire will be different from the falls of
historic empires, because here our “enemy” is not some stronger,
smarter, larger, or better-armed fellow human tribe. In an old
comic strip, Pogo said, “We have met the enemy, and it is us.”

We will have very little control over the coming decline of
humanity. We cannot replace the huge amounts of vital resources
we have used and will continue to use.

http://www.decline-mysite.net/
http://decline-mysite.net/Depletion_of_ ... ankind.pdf

About the Author

Francis Reynolds, PE. is an Engineering graduate of the University of Washington now retired from a career in Boeing Engineering Management. He has eight patents, both private and corporate.

His book, Crackpot or Genius? A complete guide to the Uncommon Art of Inventing has been published in both paperback and hardcover, and he taught university-level evening courses on inventing for years.

His book, The Revolutionary Dualmode Transportation System, is online at http://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/rev/revcontents.htm.

He has had roughly 175 articles published in Journals, magazines and newspapers, and has lectured nationally including the presentation of an Engineering Colloquium at NASA Goddard in Oct. 1994.

Higgenbotham wrote:I've written about the decaying infrastructure but don't think that will deliver the knockout blow.

I would reiterate this but infrastructure and scarcity of materials is a factor currently present that will wear the population down and make it susceptible to the knockout blow. I think it's becoming obvious that the "shovel ready jobs" will never come because they can't come, and the infrastructure will be allowed to decay with reassurances from "pencil engineering" processes. Costs of road repairs, water usage, water treatment, waste disposal, pest control, and other infrastructure costs will be reflected in increased rents and taxes, and much of the population is being forced to cut back on health care, dental care, and food consumption to pay these costs. I read 31% in one survey. This will increase each year until there are open revolts or the knockout blow is delivered.

The Book of Job states the pride of the leviathan is his scales, which look like many shields.
The Book of Revelations and I seen from the sea of peoples.

"After that, in my vision at night I looked, and there before me was a fourth beast terrifying and frightening and very powerful.
It had large iron teeth; it crushed and devoured its victims and trampled underfoot whatever was left. It was different from all the
former beasts, and it had ten horns.

The little horn we see today rises from the sea of peoples.

In that hour he will speak for you.

Higgenbotham wrote:Excerpts

In an old
comic strip, Pogo said, “We have met the enemy, and it is us.”

We will have very little control over the coming decline of
humanity. We cannot replace the huge amounts of vital resources
we have used and will continue to use.

http://www.decline-mysite.net/
http://decline-mysite.net/Depletion_of_ ... ankind.pdf

About the Author

Francis Reynolds, PE. is an Engineering graduate of the University of Washington now retired from a career in Boeing Engineering Management. He has eight patents, both private and corporate.

His book, Crackpot or Genius? A complete guide to the Uncommon Art of Inventing has been published in both paperback and hardcover, and he taught university-level evening courses on inventing for years.

His book, The Revolutionary Dualmode Transportation System, is online at http://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/rev/revcontents.htm.

He has had roughly 175 articles published in Journals, magazines and newspapers, and has lectured nationally including the presentation of an Engineering Colloquium at NASA Goddard in Oct. 1994.

Higgenbotham wrote:I've written about the decaying infrastructure but don't think that will deliver the knockout blow.

I would reiterate this but infrastructure and scarcity of materials is a factor currently present that will wear the population down and make it susceptible to the knockout blow. I think it's becoming obvious that the "shovel ready jobs" will never come because they can't come, and the infrastructure will be allowed to decay with reassurances from "pencil engineering" processes. Costs of road repairs, water usage, water treatment, waste disposal, pest control, and other infrastructure costs will be reflected in increased rents and taxes, and much of the population is being forced to cut back on health care, dental care, and food consumption to pay these costs. I read 31% in one survey. This will increase each year until there are open revolts or the knockout blow is delivered.

http://www.macminn.org/Fisher%20monograph.pdf page 37 The agency problems.
What I mean is consolidations is not always condusive to productive capex. To limit the risk I
select smaller projects for now to invest in since lets get to point alot of the larger firms do
not practise better risk managent. I dialed back a few years ago and as such have found better
premium payments. I will take the smaller bang for the buck since capex is inline with opex
and that why we discussed dunbars number to scope and scale investments back then.
Internalized problems to opex are the agency problems. As we noted here the equity cults
are suffering the dunbar effect from attitude and confirmation bias. We already covered
the left and right hand legal view on actors. The taxpayer does not understand clearly why
the adjectives and alphabet constructs since capital is indeed fungible and top to bottom
the white flag attitude will run the ship aground as we read everyday for some decades now.

When bbepp levels off it should garner a decent view to numerous topics.
I have a few tech positions also which are flat as of late. Sector rotation
or nadir we shall see.

Same as it ever was.

From a forthcoming book titled “Kennewick Man: The Scientific Investigation of an Ancient American Skeleton”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-3 ... t-american

"Native Americans appear to have been in a constant state of warfare, with many tribes becoming extinct well before the arrival of Columbus. Not only did these tribes have to compete for food but also genes, where problems associated with inbreeding likely led to the common practice of raiding one another for women and slaves. The arrival of the Europeans did not make things any better, and not before long they were also fighting among each other."

Does the above provide the fallback answer to the question I previously raised regarding fighting in the Middle East? The question being "the solution is?"

Same as it ever was.

Is this just a part of "human nature" or is it a fundamental part of existence? Have you ever watched the interplay among animals? Have you ever watched plants choke one another out for growing space? We are part of existence, so why should we be different? Because we think we are?

Trying to view reality without rose colored glasses, a spade is a spade.

cheers