Financial topics

[aedens]

Few understand how difficult it is to construct a viable reality with regional positions.
No matter how you unpack facts the Consumer decides. As we touched on and T noted also
some regions save bricks as others do not have enough to build so utility announces its own position.
The master builder dilema is real and only a few pay attention long enough to see the printed results.
Granted time is indeed a premium. I wonder if those two shorted the blunt verbal in person oil statement that was given.
No they did not.... and yes they thought I was odd saying you never understood the last business war either we survived.
I stopped out at 76.50 since I stuck to a targeted view.
I find the levithon is a self canceling effect since each layer of its serves its own purpose. Pointless to convey the middleman
seeking parity since who was the problem when fiat creates uncertain terms and unstable contracts to ensue.
As I consided for my view, why expand book until 2018 since they are submerged in avarice, or to say good luck on your choices.
Still it refuses to see inside as we are warned to what is kindled in the silent weapons of the silent war.
I find it typical in the spirit of the age if we cannot separate the Convenant to the air of simple realism the democides will
linger. I do consider the term " climate change" or "climate science" as accurate as one clip in one clip out from the grain colony since data is fragile.
The guy who mentioned violence is the vestage of the incompetant was on to something.
As I enjoy irony, one falls on his face, and another wishes to punch us in the nose.

[aedens]

Miserly Austrians LOVE cherry picking.

Never do they fathom enough bricks for enough predicated open market plans....
Same as ever.....
As for this posting by Banksy it was found offensive and removed by the regional dead heads.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-3 ... ing-bubble
http://worldcomplex.blogspot.ca/2010/08 ... ghana.html

Right back to term net working capital, as we noted correctly last time here.
As I reminded my Wife if you hear a accent, its you my Dear.

[Higgenbotham]

How increased inefficiency explains falling oil prices

Since about 2001, several sectors of the economy have become increasingly inefficient, in the sense that it takes more resources to produce a given output, such as 1000 barrels of oil. I believe that this growing inefficiency explains both slowing world economic growth and the sharp recent drop in prices of many commodities, including oil.

2001 seems about right. And I think the beginning of the new dark age was just a few years after that - 2008 or so. Also, I don't think we're too far from the point that things seize up and there is no viable way to get them working again. Meaning for example that substantial amounts of oil are no longer viable to produce and production stops and cannot be restarted. The swing down from the collapse of artificial production should be a lot more devastating than if a gradual swing down had been opted for.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/12/29/ho ... il-prices/

[Higgenbotham]

A point about the regional differences, the coming swing down, and why I think those types of changes break up empires.

Let's say the US as a whole with its current money system and political system finds itself in a place that the fracking is no longer economically viable and most of it shuts down. It may not be long before it occurs to regional players that are stronger than the country as a whole that the rest of the country has dragged them down. Specifically, it may occur to the brain trust in a place such as Austin Texas that if they could shed themselves of the dollar and create a new currency and economy defined by the borders of Texas that they could get their oil production restarted because the economy of the region would be viable as a separate entity.

What we seem to be seeing recently is a drop in price to what consumers can afford for some of these increasingly unaffordable sectors. Unless this situation can be turned around quickly, the whole system risks collapse.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/12/29/ho ... il-prices/

[vincecate]

Higgy, what do you think about the Yen? I think it is in big trouble very soon.

http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/

[aedens]

http://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/2015/0 ... t-mcmurray

H its like being in a meeting for four hours when lip stick and new dress was what they meant to say.

Our whole view is based on we have to pick up the pieces again.

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/2015/0 ... t-mcmurray

H its like being in a meeting for four hours when lip stick and new dress was what they meant to say.

Our whole view is based on we have to pick up the pieces again.

Yeah, exactly, every setback has been viewed as a speed bump to greater heights and it is believed from historical experience of the last 5 centuries that a solution is always available somewhere, you just have to think hard enough. But I'm skeptical there is any solution. If Texas tried to implement such a thing it would likely only make matters worse.

[Higgenbotham]

Higgy, what do you think about the Yen? I think it is in big trouble very soon.

http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/

I think you know better than me. My thought continues to be that the Fukushima accident and lack of a fix will continue to create a mindset, maybe not identified but it is real nonetheless, where the Japanese gradually lose faith in their system to prevent and solve problems with Fukushima being the trigger of that irreversible shift. I think the money printing has been shown to mask that for a period of time and it has here in the US too but long term only makes the loss of faith worse because the money printing reinforces the fact that they have no real solutions.

That's what we see here in the US too. We have no real solutions like balancing the budget or anything else that is real. We can only debase currency until the system collapses for good. Which of course means that if the system is collapsing and people are engaging in criminal activity as they are, then trying to document that in some fashion such as making tape recordings is a waste of your time because it goes beyond being a moral problem, it is a problem where hard ecosystem limits are being reached.

I have no timeline for when the value of the yen reaches zero except to think that the points in time mentioned last year that correlate to Chernobyl and Katrina might be the points in time where that value of the yen will not be seen again. I would continue to think that the US stock market will reach its intrinsic value of zero or be shut down before the end of 2016. That prediction is not looking very good as 2015 opens but we also know how sudden crashes can be.

However, as we started to near the end of the 2 year time period a new policy was announced on Oct 31st of 80 trillion Yen per year with no end date.

Maybe this could be considered the point of acceleration I was looking for earlier in 2014, in the sense that the Japanese government tried to temprorarily head off the loss of faith by accelerating the debasement process.

[John]

If you momentarily ignore the war aspects, and just focus on the
financial crisis aspects, then Japan is in a First Turning Recovery
Era, while America and Russia are in Fourth Turning Crisis eras. This
means that their situations are not comparable.

[Higgenbotham]

If you momentarily ignore the war aspects, and just focus on the
financial crisis aspects, then Japan is in a First Turning Recovery
Era, while America and Russia are in Fourth Turning Crisis eras. This
means that their situations are not comparable.

I think how important the various cycles and factors are will depend on whether hard ecosystem limits are being reached or if some kind of fix can be implemented that frees the world from these various limits where necessary resources are becoming harder to extract and source. That's why I think nobody has gone to prison this time around. The other thing I would wonder about Japan specifically is that when the Japanese stock market collapsed after 1990 and their economy went into deflation the larger US economy was able to help keep them afloat during the crisis but now if the US stock market and economy get slammed hard with deflation how much that might drag Japan down too (or how pseudo-inflationary that might be for Japan).