Generational Dynamics World View News

[FishbellykanakaDude]

... I lived through the breakup of Yugoslavia. In 1990, no one believed it would happen. By 1991, people couldn't believe Yugoslavia had lasted as long as it did. The JNA broke apart. Mass desertions happened. MiG pilots fled in their aircraft. Soldiers were murdered by their former comrades in the barracks. Those men never thought their comrades would turn on them. They did.

Just because you don't believe civil war is possible doesn't mean it won't happen. I knew people like you who were caught off guard and murdered because they didn't think civil war could happen.

You seem to enjoy the playing the fool. But it fools like you that end up being butchered alive like farm animals.

I do, in fact, enjoy playing the "naïve". It's a very good tack to teasing out the stories that people are trying to tell. Making space for people to "fall into", and then work to get out of, seems to exercise the conversational muscles.

Whether anyone chooses to believe anyone else is as naïve as they appear is of no concern to me, 'though I believe that anyone who DOES believe that other's are truly naïve (and act under that assumption) are the (dangerously?) naïve ones.

The South Slavic Mishmash that you knew and which broke up is not the US.

It was a compacted, pressurized and contained expanding artificially constituted foam that, once the "contained" part was eliminated did what it had to do. Explode.

The US is a mildly lumpy stew.

Stews do not explode. Unless someone turns the burner up too high, I suppose, but our burner isn't particularly over hot, and we have a sensible cook (the constitution).

..we might get a few splashes now and then, and we may get a bit "thick" if the cook isn't paying attention, but even a complete "boil down" would just result in a rather over ripe sludge that could be easily rescued and reconstituted as a lovely sauce.

It is socialist farmyards that result in more equal equality and the eating of neighbors.

So,.. as long as we're vigilant in smacking down the adolescent urge to "socialism", we'll be fine.

[Xeraphim1]

https://ahvalnews.com/justice-and-devel ... ainst-west

Interesting story on Turkey and what is driving Erdoğan:

"President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has a clear stance on the West. Its traditional Islamist ideology leads to radical anti-Westernism on key issues of global politics. Besides, Turkish Islamists also see the West as a threat to their survival."

"There is also a new dynamic that compels the AKP-MHP coalition towards a more aggressive anti-Western foreign policy; economic bankruptcy. Having no effective economic programme, the AKP-MHP coalition employs authoritarian means. Given the economic crisis is not likely to go away, the coalition is clever enough to realise that ruling Turkey through authoritarian means and statist economics requires a new foreign policy orientation. The AKP-MHP coalition dreams of an alternative global alignment, which it expects to mean less commitment to complex issues such as the rule of law, the free market and democracy."

"Anti-Western sentiments are also common amongst ordinary people. A recent survey by Istanbul’s Kadir Has University shows that most Turks see countries such as Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Qatar, Venezuela, Iran, Russia, India and China as friendly countries. According to the same study, Turks see countries like the United States, France, Britain and Germany as a threat.

The survey points to a hatred of the West. Thus arguments on the potential costs of the S-400s miss a point. The question should rather be, is it possible to keep Turkey in its traditional pro-Western position today as long as the public, elites and the state are so anti-Western?"

[FishbellykanakaDude]

... What he doesn't understand, is that I foresee an over 50% desertion rate of the actual fighting forces (minorities in the military tend to be in support roles). In addition, it doesn't take huge desertions for the modern military with its heavy and complex weapons system to have a logistical nightmare. Add in the massive amount of private arms in the US, and the Red Rebel side is actually the larger force. ...

You have an interesting opinion. I don't happen to share it. That's fine.

..I also corrected (I think) a key misspelling in your response (the red bit above). If I got that wrong, do please correct me.

I'd like to see your vision, more filled out, as to how a >50% desertion rate happens, while at the same time the "white" and "non-white" military populations diverge entirely. That would be an EXCITING story!

More story, please! Also, what is your main character gonna be? Ooo, and the main villain!?

[John]

** 18-Jul-2019 World View: Turkey's alignments

> https://ahvalnews.com/justice-and-devel ... ainst-west

> Interesting story on Turkey and what is driving Erdoğan:

> "President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development
> Party (AKP) has a clear stance on the West. Its traditional
> Islamist ideology leads to radical anti-Westernism on key issues
> of global politics. Besides, Turkish Islamists also see the West
> as a threat to their survival." ...

> The survey points to a hatred of the West. Thus arguments on the
> potential costs of the S-400s miss a point. The question should
> rather be, is it possible to keep Turkey in its traditional
> pro-Western position today as long as the public, elites and the
> state are so anti-Western?"

Over the years, I've been trying to psych out the alliances
in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, which I've
characterized as US + West + India + Russia + Iran vs
China + Pakistan + Sunni Muslim countries.

Although Turkey is a Sunni Muslim country, how it aligns with
the other countries has still has some puzzling elements.

> Anti-Western sentiments are also common amongst ordinary people. A
> recent survey by Istanbul’s Kadir Has University shows that most
> Turks see countries such as Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Qatar,
> Venezuela, Iran, Russia, India and China as friendly
> countries. According to the same study, Turks see countries like
> the United States, France, Britain and Germany as a threat.

The current S-400 issue is very serious, as it may well force
Turkey completely out of Nato.

China is exterminating Uighurs and Kazakhs, who are Turkic people,
and is preparing for war in Central Asia, where there are
more Turkic people, so it's hard to see how Turkey can be
an ally of China.

Turkey and Russia are currently allies in Syria, but they're enemies
in Crimea and Ukraine, so it's hard to see how Turkey can remain an
ally of Russia. Furthermore, Turkey has had historic wars with other
Orthodox Christian countries, including Greece and Armenia.

Turkey is on the same side as Qatar in the Saudi-led blockade
of Qatar, so it's hard to see how Turkey can be an ally
of Saudi Arabia.

And of course Turkey has its own internal problems, especially
with the Kurds.

[John]

** 18-Jul-2019 Omar

> Omar is not particularly loved even in her own district (which,
> shamefully, is mine.) It's D+26 and a three week old dead dog
> could get elected if you painted a "D" on it's back. She only got
> the nomination due to the work of intersectional activists: shes a
> three-fer; female, black, Muslim.

> No one is going to war over Omar.

> Posted on July 18, 2019 by Scott Johnson in Ilhan Omar
> David Steinberg: Tying up loose threads in the curious case

> In four intensely reported investigative columns — here (August
> 13, 2018), here (October 23, 2018), here (October 30, 2018), and
> here (November 5, 2018), — David Steinberg has explored the
> evidence suggesting that Ilhan Omar entered into a sham marriage
> with her brother in 2009. This is his fifth. He titles it “Meet
> Leila Elmi: The Missing Link Showing Ilhan Omar Married Her
> Brother.” Drawing on his research, interviews, and social media
> evidence he makes the case that Omar has engaged in a variety of
> fraudulent activities and willful misrepresentations related to
> her marital arrangements. He writes: ...

> https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/ ... s-case.php

[FishbellykanakaDude]

... Although Turkey is a Sunni Muslim country, how it aligns with the other countries has still has some puzzling elements.

... Turkey and Russia are currently allies in Syria, but they're enemies
in Crimea and Ukraine, so it's hard to see how Turkey can remain an
ally of Russia.

Furthermore, Turkey has had historic wars with other
Orthodox Christian countries, including Greece and Armenia.

Turkey is on the same side as Qatar in the Saudi-led blockade
of Qatar, so it's hard to see how Turkey can be an ally
of Saudi Arabia.

And of course Turkey has its own internal problems, especially
with the Kurds.

Turkey hits some "weird nationalistic psychotic break" and shatters into seven or eight, or five or four, separate "countries", where the Turk (not "Turkic" but more narrowly "Turk") group and the "Arab" group ally with the Sunni-Chinese and everyone else allies with the West,.. unless they get stomped out like that campfire in "The Gods Must Be Crazy" by the rhino.

..how that happens,.. I plead the "stupidth". I haven't a clue.

[Millenial83]

Well, "desertion" implies a smaller force leaving a larger force.

Why would the smaller force win?



I'm not being "difficult". I'm trying to get you to think about how your scenario would actually (or at least hypothetically) work in 4D (through time).

To be anywhere NEAR persuasive, you need to make the "mechanism" work from the initial conditions (aka NOW) to your "desired" outcome.

Keep goin' buckeroo!

I lived through the breakup of Yugoslavia. In 1990, no one believed it would happen. By 1991, people couldn't believe Yugoslavia had lasted as long as it did. The JNA broke apart. Mass desertions happened. MiG pilots fled in their aircraft. Soldiers were murdered by their former comrades in the barracks. Those men never thought their comrades would turn on them. They did.

Just because you don't believe civil war is possible doesn't mean it won't happen. I knew people like you who were caught off guard and murdered because they didn't think civil war could happen.

You seem to enjoy the playing the fool. But it fools like you that end up being butchered alive like farm animals.

What he doesn't understand, is that I foresee an over 50% desertion rate of the actual fighting forces (minorities in the military tend to be in support roles). In addition, it does take huge desertions for the modern military with its heavy and complex weapons system to have a logistical nightmare. Add in the massive amount of private arms in the US, and the Red Rebel side is actually the larger force.

As for John, I see his blind spot now. John does not see that a racial fault line DID open in the US in the 1960s. It's been under the surface in GOP politics for decades, The Southern Strategy, the fight over busing (which is now being relitigated), Reagans welfare queens, Willie Brown, all the way to MAGA.

John,

I notice you have not reaponded to my second paragraph here. Is it you have no answer (since being a Cambridge early Boomer you have no concept of it) or the idea of it scares you silly that it is true?

[Millenial83]

BTW John,

Even though you get Generational Dynamics, you still show your early Boomerness, thinking America is the 90% white country you grew up in, not a multi ethnic mess about to engage in Civil War.

[John]

** 19-Jul-2019 Questions

> John, I notice you have not reaponded to my second paragraph
> here. Is it you have no answer (since being a Cambridge early
> Boomer you have no concept of it) or the idea of it scares you
> silly that it is true?

No. The reason I didn't answer it is because I've already answered
it, because you've been asking the same question over and over for
years, and because you're a complete idiot.

By the way, I'm not your servant that I have to answer any of your
questions at all. I answer a question when it's asked respectfully,
when the subject matter interests me, and when I'm in the mood.

[John]

** 19-Jul-2019 World View: Argentina freezes Hezbollah's assets

We usually hear about Hezbollah in the context of the Middle East.
Hezbollah is a Lebanon-based terror group and militia, funded by its
puppetmaster Iran. Hezbollah has been fighting alongside Iranian
troops in Syria, and is committed to war with Israel. So it's a
little bit of a surprise when Hezbollah makes news outside of the
Mideast.

On Thursday, Hezbollah was designated as a terrorist organization by
the government of the South American country Argentina, which froze
all of Hezbollah's assets in the country. There are few Hezbollah
assets in Argentina, but this freeze of assets adds to Hezbollah's
dwindling cash flow, as Iran has been cutting back Hezbollah funding
because of the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the
resumption of sanctions.

Hezbollah is also designated as a terrorist organization by the US,
UK, Israel and several Gulf Arab states, but Argentina is the first
country in Latin America to do so.

"At present, Hezbollah continues to represent a current threat to
security and the integrity of the economic and financial order of the
Argentine Republic," Argentina's Financial Information Unit said on
Thursday. Argentine officials say Hezbollah is engaged in illegal
activities between Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay to finance its
operations elsewhere.

Thursday was the 25th anniversary of the terrorist bombing, blamed on
Hezbollah, of the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA,
Argentinian Israeli Mutual Association) Jewish community center in
Buenos Aires. A truck loaded with explosives was driven into the AMIA
center in a densely populated central area of Buenos Aires, also
leaving 300 people wounded. Argentina has the largest Jewish
community in Latin America, 300,000 people.

Two years before the AMIA bombing, Israel's Buenos Aires Embassy was
hit by a suicide bomber driving a truck, killing 29 people and
wounding 200.

---- Sources:

-- Victims of 1994 AMIA bombing still waiting for justice, 25 years on
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argenti ... s-on.phtml
(Buenos Aires Times, 18-Jul-2019)

-- Argentina brands Hezbollah terrorist organization, freezes assets
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-arge ... SKCN1UD1XE
(Reuters, 18-Jul-2019)

-- Argentina designates Hezbollah as terrorist organisation
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49030561
(BBC, 18-Jul-2019)

-- History of Hezbollah / Profile: Lebanon's Hezbollah movement
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-10814698
(BBC, 15-Mar-2016)