Financial topics

[aedens]

Social Silences as the snake eats its tail. His work senses the dichotomy in the spirit of this age.

The moderates understand the actual cost of just being that, I would consider them the smart money who has to pick up the pieces.
Some can consider that ruthlessy pragmatic and seated in apathy not understanding the defence mechanisn induced from fear.
I have found over the decades as we discussed before induced stress only induces the 28 day wonders as a oiled hing to swing to
needs of the control group. Traits are induced, or as we note polished for results to be brief. As for 1929 the leviathon was induced,
or to say unleashed to meet competion in my view.
http://www.voltairenet.org/article186109.html

[vincecate]

So Hussman's article is an interesting analysis, but it still doesn't
tell us what triggered the 1929 panic, or what will trigger the next
panic. The only (very weak) indicator that I know of is that
volatility precedes the panic.

There are many positive feedback loops in nature. Many times we can not tell what triggered something. If there is an earthquake some piece of Earth cracked and then the crack ran along the faultline. But why that time and that location? It does not really matter, if it was not there and then it would have been another place along the faultline at another time.

It is the same in finance. If by some magic you could go back in time and prevent some particular trigger, another would happen later. Once things are setup for a chain reaction, it is sort of bound to happen at some time.

http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2014/08 ... ry-of.html

[aedens]

The fulcrum does not move, just opinion to why Mother nature always bats last as we unpacked
GGS dynamics also and the infered fragility of data for purposes.

As we know the shadows on the cave wall for the vacuum of intent.

As for innovation and design, well I guess we will have to wait a decade to get back on that as forwarded before.
We covered alot of material here.

https://www.mises.org/humanaction/chap35sec1.asp
There are only two explanations open. Either these self-styled welfare economists are themselves not aware of the logical inadmissibility of their reasoning; or they have chosen this mode of arguing purposely in order to find shelter for their fallacies behind a work which is intended beforehand to disarm all opponents. In each case their own acts condemn them.

We seen this dislocation, as few others in this equity consolidation cycle.
As they noted back then "a deliberate shift in investor attitudes towards how best to diversify the asset mix with an eye towards generating risk-adjusted
returns has been underway.

What people have failed to garner is that FDR was the culmination of a sovereign to commercial statutes."

Capital is fungible as the attitude attacking it cannot fathom.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSOhD6c786E

[aedens]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-0 ... -obamacare lulz

quite clear that only a nation as stupid as America would allow such as an opaque law as Obamacare to be passed. And, by implication, Harvard being subject to this law,
makes its faculty about as stupid as the average American voter.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... rts#p25916

makes as much sense as swaps untaxed eh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLYDqw0LK-4

[aedens]

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2014/1 ... -blog.html

cave reading

[aedens]

S

Give it til Friday.

Then the derivatives begin to blow sky high.

Like a child, these idiots think they can just say nevermind, it was a bad idea, we sorry...

One of the few times so many jobs lost within weeks. This seems to play into the liberal progressive democrat job killing strategy quite nicely, as this will render Keystone useless.

When reading how Dow will save the world, building new plastics plants, and the LNG export terminals ramping up to export natty, and how many jobs would be created as a result, and all the while there is no where to export said products to, it finally comes into view. Barry is using Saudi to kill the american energy sector, since those bastards were creating more higher paying jobs for people without degrees, who dont mind actually working for a living, while the liberals cry and whine for moar free shit, makes one want to visit somewhere where hard work might be rewarded. Mars???

Oh right, Barry killed the space program too...

[gerald]

John -- have you ever witnessed the reactions of a crowd? They are like an unthinking herd, if properly ( poor choice of words ) stimulated they will do what they thought they could not.
Hence the mob. --- stay away from crowds.

And you wonder why I like the desolation of nature, I know what to be prepared for , humans not so much.

cheers

Yes, but exactly when does the unthinking herd start to move? What stimulation is required?

Having witnessed and been in the herd -- a seemingly unimportant action can start the stampede ( a person becomes one with the herd ) --- and then all reason goes out the window. it becomes like an uncontrollable force that sweeps people into it ( what is that trigger ? it depends, illogical as that may be ) stay away from crowds as stimulating as they can be, for they can turn on a dime, and you will be trampled. -- Lemmings -- Humanity

cheers

John, there is a bit more to this herd effect. When a crowd does this it is a though a collective consciousness is activated, you can't put your finger on it, but something happens or is "triggered" and it can be instantaneous. One could say it is kinda like the 100th monkey phenomenon http://www.uhh.hawaii.edu/~ronald/hmp.htm
------------------------------
To go deeper into the fog, it is interesting to note that when reading -- tinfoil hat time -- about extraterrestrials their cultures etc. how often the spiritual issue and one's connection to this force or conseiousness comes up, and that humanity's disconect from this force and that this disconnect, is the cause for much of humanity's problems --- hmmm

[John]

John -- have you ever witnessed the reactions of a crowd? They are like an unthinking herd, if properly ( poor choice of words ) stimulated they will do what they thought they could not.
Hence the mob. --- stay away from crowds.

And you wonder why I like the desolation of nature, I know what to be prepared for , humans not so much.

cheers

Yes, but exactly when does the unthinking herd start to move? What stimulation is required?

Having witnessed and been in the herd -- a seemingly unimportant action can start the stampede ( a person becomes one with the herd ) --- and then all reason goes out the window. it becomes like an uncontrollable force that sweeps people into it ( what is that trigger ? it depends, illogical as that may be ) stay away from crowds as stimulating as they can be, for they can turn on a dime, and you will be trampled. -- Lemmings -- Humanity

cheers

“Beware the Ides of March, or the Ides of any month in 2015 for that matter,” Bill Gross wrote. “When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes. The good times are over.”

While Gross said predicting the end of a bull market is “nearly always an impossible task,” he added that there “comes a time when common sense must recognize that the king has no clothes … when it comes to future expectations for asset returns. Now is that time,” he wrote.

Gross’ message is simple: Investors should “lower their expectations” in 2015.

“Manias can outlast any forecaster because they are driven not only by rational inputs, but by irrational human expressions of fear and greed,” Gross wrote. “Knowing when the ‘crowd’ has had enough is an often frustrating task, and it behooves an individual with a reputation at stake to stand clear. As you know, however, moving out of the way has never been my style so I will stake my claim with as much logic as possible and hope to persuade you to lower expectations for future returns over the next 12 months.”

http://americasmarkets.usatoday.com/201 ... -are-over/

[gerald]

events shall be interesting

cheers

[gerald]

events shall be interesting

cheers

I guess we shall see --- may you live in interesting times -- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-0 ... rspectives


Will 2015 Be A Year Of Economic Disaster? 11 Perspectives

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Will 2015 be a year of financial crashes, economic chaos and the start of the next great worldwide depression? Over the past couple of years, we have all watched as global financial bubbles have gotten larger and larger. Despite predictions that they could burst at any time, they have just continued to expand. But just like we witnessed in 2001 and 2008, all financial bubbles come to an end at some point, and when they do implode the pain can be extreme.

Personally, I am entirely convinced that the financial markets are more primed for a financial collapse now than they have been at any other time since the last crisis happened nearly seven years ago. And I am certainly not alone. At this point, the warning cries have become a deafening roar as a whole host of prominent voices have stepped forward to sound the alarm. The following are 11 predictions of economic disaster in 2015 from top experts all over the globe…

#1 Bill Fleckenstein: “They are trying to make the stock market go up and drag the economy along with it. It’s not going to work. There’s going to be a big accident. When people realize that it’s all a charade, the dollar will tank, the stock market will tank, and hopefully bond markets will tank. Gold will rally in that period of time because it’s done what it’s done because people have assumed complete infallibility on the part of the central bankers.”

#2 John Ficenec: “In the US, Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio – or Shiller CAPE – for the S&P 500 is currently at 27.2, some 64pc above the historic average of 16.6. On only three occasions since 1882 has it been higher – in 1929, 2000 and 2007.”

#3 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, one of the most respected economic journalists on the entire planet: “The eurozone will be in deflation by February, forlornly trying to ignite its damp wood by rubbing stones. Real interest rates will ratchet higher. The debt load will continue to rise at a faster pace than nominal GDP across Club Med. The region will sink deeper into a compound interest trap.”

#4 The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, which correctly predicted the bursting of the subprime mortgage bubble in 2007: “Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggests movement toward a 2015 downturn.”

#5 Paul Craig Roberts: “At any time the Western house of cards could collapse. It (the financial system) is a house of cards. There are no economic fundamentals that support stock prices — the Dow Jones. There are no economic fundamentals that support the strong dollar…”

#6 David Tice: “I have the same kind of feel in ’98 and ’99; also ’05 and ’06. This is going to end badly. I have every confidence in the world.”

#7 Liz Capo McCormick and Susanne Walker: “Get ready for a disastrous year for U.S. government bonds. That’s the message forecasters on Wall Street are sending.”

#8 Phoenix Capital Research: “Just about everything will be hit as well. Most of the ‘recovery’ of the last five years has been fueled by cheap borrowed Dollars. Now that the US Dollar has broken out of a multi-year range, you’re going to see more and more ‘risk assets’ (read: projects or investments fueled by borrowed Dollars) blow up. Oil is just the beginning, not a standalone story.

If things really pick up steam, there’s over $9 TRILLION worth of potential explosions waiting in the wings. Imagine if the entire economies of both Germany and Japan exploded and you’ve got a decent idea of the size of the potential impact on the financial system.”

#9 Rob Kirby: “What this breakdown in the crude oil price is going to spawn another financial crisis. It will be tied to the junk debt that has been issued to finance the shale oil plays in North America. It is reported to be in the area of half a trillion dollars worth of junk debt that is held largely on the books of large financial institutions in the western world. When these bonds start to fail, they will jeopardize the future of these financial institutions. I do believe that will be the signal for the Fed to come riding to the rescue with QE4. I also think QE4 is likely going to be accompanied by bank bail-ins because we all know all western world countries have adopted bail-in legislation in their most recent budgets. The financial elites are engineering the excuse for their next round of money printing . . . and they will be confiscating money out of savings accounts and pension accounts. That’s what I think is coming in the very near future.”

#10 John Ing: “The 2008 collapse was just a dress rehearsal compared to what the world is going to face this time around. This time we have governments which are even more highly leveraged than the private sector was.

So this time the collapse will be on a scale that is many magnitudes greater than what the world witnessed in 2008.”

#11 Gerald Celente: “What does the word confidence mean? Break it down. In this case confidence = con men and con game. That’s all it is. So people will lose confidence in the con men because they have already shown their cards. It’s a Ponzi scheme. So the con game is running out and they don’t have any more cards to play.

What are they going to do? They can’t raise interest rates. We saw what happened in the beginning of December when the equity markets started to unravel. So it will be a loss of confidence in the con game and the con game is soon coming to an end. That is when you are going to see panic on Wall Street and around the world.”

If you have been following my website, you know that I have been pointing to 2015 for quite some time now.

For example, in my article entitled “The Seven Year Cycle Of Economic Crashes That Everyone Is Talking About“, I discussed the pattern of financial crashes that we have witnessed every seven years that goes all the way back to the Great Depression. The last two major stock market crashes began in 2001 and 2008, and now here we are seven years later.

Will the same pattern hold up once again?

In addition, there are many other economic cycles that seem to indicate that we are due for a major economic downturn. I discussed quite a few of these theories in my article entitled “If Economic Cycle Theorists Are Correct, 2015 To 2020 Will Be Pure Hell For The United States“.

But just like in 2000 and 2007, there are a whole host of doubters that are fully convinced that the party can continue indefinitely. Even though our economic fundamentals continue to get worse, our debt levels continue to grow and every objective measurement shows that Wall Street is more reckless and more vulnerable to collapse than ever before, they mock the idea that a financial collapse is imminent.

So let’s see what happens in 2015.

I have a feeling that it is going to be an extremely “interesting” year.
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"If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand." - Milton Friedman