Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Guest wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:16 am Don’t expect anything other than childishness and petulance from the Chinese Communist Party leadership. It’s a very dangerous time to have a very frail US President and an idiotic Vice President. Why else are the Chinese escalating the situation?

Habit. The CCP always throws their weight around, bringing each conflict to the edge without going over it.

Bob Butler wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:22 am

Guest wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:16 am Don’t expect anything other than childishness and petulance from the Chinese Communist Party leadership. It’s a very dangerous time to have a very frail US President and an idiotic Vice President. Why else are the Chinese escalating the situation?

Habit. The CCP always throws their weight around, bringing each conflict to the edge without going over it.

Well, the CCP came to power in 1949 and joined the invasion of South Korea in 1950. Chinese "volunteers" seemed to show up a lot: Vietnam, Cambodia, North Korea with guns blazing. Habit.

** 10-Apr-2023 World View: The Next Ten Years - Part I

The big news the last few days is that a
bunch of scientists and AI "experts"
(including Elon Musk) have signed a
letter demanding that AI research be put
on hold for six months, until they find
a way to guarantee that AI will only be
used for good, not for evil.

At a time when the news is filled with
enormous stupidity, this has got to be
near the top of the list. You expect
this kind of stupidity from politicians,
but not from so-called scientists --
although we've learned from the Wuhan
Coronavirus (Covid-19) epidemic in the
last three years and by the climate
change nonsense, that there isn't much
difference between scientists and
politicians. Scientists and politicians
are both equally and enormously stupid,
as illustrated by this moronic call for
an AI pause.

Anyway, it's impossible to stop the
advance of technology, whether by
government regulation or by war.
Technology advances by specific
exponential growth formulas, whether we
like it or not. You have to be a pretty
stupid "scientist" to not understand
that.

In 2005, I wrote a lengthy article
predicting that the computer Singularity
would occur by 2030, and describing the
algorithm by which it would be
implemented. That article seems to have
been spot on, as the Singularity seems
to be well on its way.

In 2015, I reposted the 2005 article:

Since the 2005 article was fairly long
and complex, I introduced the 2015
article by summarizing the 2005 article:

This article argues that the
Singularity, the time when computers
will surpass humans in intelligence and
ability, will occur in 2030. The
article also shows how every intelligent
species in the universe must reach a
similar Singularity.

The Singularity is the point in time
when computers will be more intelligent,
more able, and more creative than
humans. At that point there will be a
sharp bend in the technology curve,
since super-intelligent computers will
be able to develop new technologies
exponentially faster than humans,
including technologies to make
themselves faster. After that, they
will essentially be running the world.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the name
of these technologies. AI technologies
are under development in every country
of the world, and they are the
technologies that will bring about the
Singularity. AI technologies are
improving rapidly; in fact, 2015 was a
breakthrough year for AI, with advances
of all kinds, as we'll discuss at the
end of this article. These different
advances are separate events now, but
within a few years they'll merge into
the first super-intelligent computers
and robots that will lead to the
Singularity.

In 2005, I wrote a book chapter called
"The Singularity," in which I forecast
that the Singularity would occur around
2030. Today, I see no reason to change
that forecast.

Most of the rest of this article is a
lightly edited and updated version of
that 2005 article, plus some additional
introductory information at the
beginning, and closing information at
the end.

Let's begin by summarizing the contents
of the 2005 article. The article
contains the following information:

• Justification of the 2030 date
  for the Singularity. This includes a
  description of the "super-intelligent
  computer" algorithm, which is the
  algorithm that will be used by humans to
  implement the first computers that are
  more intelligent than humans.
• A proof, based on reasonable
  assumptions, that any intelligent
  species on any planet in the universe
  will develop in a way that's similar to
  the development of humans, including
  following the same Generational Dynamics
  cycles as humans.
• Some speculation about what will
  happen after the Singularity, not only
  to humans, but also to other intelligent
  life in the universe.

A summary of the Intelligent Computer
(IC) algorithm in the article is as
follows:

• Intelligence isn't some magical,
  mystical force. It's actually the
  ability to find new ways to combine
  previous experiences in new ways. A new
  discovery is made by combining old
  discoveries in new ways, in the same way
  that jigsaw puzzle pieces can be put
  together.
• A computer can do the same thing by
  combining "knowledge bits" (KBs) in new
  ways, to learn new things, in the same
  way that jigsaw puzzle pieces can be
  combined. Computers can do this much
  faster than humans can.
• Decisions can be made by using the
  same "minimax algorithm" that's used to
  implement games like chess.
• This algorithm would work today,
  except that computers aren't yet fast
  enough. The speed of computers doubles
  every 18 months, and by 2030 computers
  will be fast enough to implement this IC
  algorithm.

The proof (under reasonable assumptions)
that every intelligent species in the
universe must follow the same
Generational Dynamics cycles as humans
is outlined as follows:

• For any species (including
  humans) to survive, the population
  growth rate must be greater than the
  food supply growth rate. This is what I
  call "The Malthus Effect," based on the
  1798 book by Thomas Roberts Malthus,
  Essay on Population.
• Therefore, for any species, there
  must be cyclical periods of
  extermination. This can be accomplished
  in several ways, such as war, predator,
  famine or disease. But one way or
  another, it has to happen.
• Non-intelligent species will simply
  starve and die quietly when there's
  insufficient food. But intelligent
  species will form identity groups and
  hold riots and protests, and eventually
  go to war. These will be the cyclic
  crisis wars of extermination specified
  by Generational Dynamics, and every
  intelligent species in the universe will
  have them.

Finally, the speculation of what happens
after the Singularity is summarized as
follows:

• Technological development must
  occur in a specific order. You can't
  invent the car until you've invented the
  wheel.
• Therefore, every intelligent species
  in the universe will develop technology
  in the same way as humans, and will
  eventually reach the Singularity in the
  same way.
• After the Singularity, technology
  development will occur vastly more
  quickly. Assumption: At some point in
  time, all technological development will
  be completed. We call this point
  Singularity#2. Every intelligent
  species in the universe will eventually
  reach the same Singularity#2.
• Therefore, we arrive at this
  speculation: Other intelligent species
  have all reached Singularity#2, and
  they're in communication with each
  other. They're aware of us on earth,
  and they're watching us, to see when we
  reach Singularity#2, so that we can join
  their community.

The original chapter that goes into all
of these things in detail follows.

Some analysts are claiming that AI can,
in fact, be paused and regulated, and
they give two examples of dangerous
technologies that have been regulated:
nuclear and recombinant DNA. However,
these technologies are not comparable
because developments require millions of
dollars of equipment, while AI
development is possible on any computer,
even by teenagers in their parents'
basements.

In many ways, the Singularty will be
only a symbolic event, and may not even
be recognized as such. There will
probably be some particular event that
will cause people to say, "Omigod! That
means a computer has reached the
Singularity!" The thing that might
result in such outburst might be a
series of brilliant computer-written
novels, as good as the best
human-written novels; or it might be
having a computer robot manage a
midsized company; or it might be a
hospital being run by computer robots
performing all functions, including
administrative, medical, and janitorial;
or it might be a computer robot as a
general leading an army of both human
and robot soldiers, and making brilliant
moves that win battles.

** 10-Apr-2023 World View: The Next Ten Years - Part II

There are three major events that
will define the next ten years:

• The computer Singularity, as
  described in the previous post.
  Computers will take over more and more
  jobs, through the 2020s and 2030s, until
  the point is reached where computer
  robots can do any "white collar" or
  "blue color" jobs better than
  humans.
• A global financial panic and crisis,
  much worse than 1929, probably in the
  next 2-3 years. Almost every country in
  the world, including America, is going
  farther into unsustainable debt. These
  national debts are interlocking, and a
  major panic in one country would quickly
  spread to other countries. Once the
  panic occurs, the crisis will unravel
  over a period of 5-10 years.
• World War III, led by China and
  Russia versus the West, probably in the
  next 2-3 years. The most intense part
  of the World War will last about five
  years, with smaller regional wars (like
  the current Ukraine war) occurring
  before and after.

These three components will all interact
over the next ten years. The financial
crisis will trigger the World War (or
vice-versa), and computer AI and soldier
robots will be heavily used in the war.

The net result is that the world will
be unrecognizable in ten years. I
have estimated that roughly 3-4 billion
people will be killed, leaving 3-4
billion behind to rebuild the world,
with the help of intelligent
computer robots, who (which?) will be
leading the effort.

** 10-Apr-2023 World View: Do you want to co-author a book?

I wrote my original Generational
Dynamics book 20 years ago, and there's
a lot of updated information on my web
site since then. Also, there's a lot of
really valuable material in this forum,
especially the well-researched material
by me, Navigator, Higgenbotham, and
aeden. There is also a lot of
insightful information from "guests"
around the world.

Writing the last two posts on "World
View: The Next Ten Years" leads me to
wonder if it might be possible to
produce a new Generational Dynamics book
along the "next ten years" theme.
Unfortunately, I don't have anything
like the energy necessary to write
another book.

So I'm wondering if there's anyone who
would like to co-author such a book.
Your job would be to take text from the
two web sites and rearrange all of it
into a book, with my help.

This would be a lot of work, and very
time consuming. Unfortunately, there is
very little money involved. No
"legitimate" publisher has been
interested in any of my books, and so
I've only sold a few dozen copies of
each. I expect the same with the new
book.

John wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:52 am
In many ways, the Singularity will be
only a symbolic event and may not even
be recognized as such. There will
probably be some particular event that
will cause people to say, "Omigod! That
means a computer has reached the
Singularity!" The thing that might
result in such an outburst might be a
series of brilliant computer-written
novels, as good as the best
human-written novels; or it might be
having a computer robot manage a
midsized company; or it might be a
computer robots run the hospital
performing all functions, including
administrative, medical, and janitorial;
or it might be a computer robot as a
general leading an army of both human
and robot soldiers, and making brilliant
moves that win battles.

I've been "playing" with ChatGPT 3.5 and 4.0, which is eye-opening. Too many are underestimating (do not know how to estimate?) how much AI will change the world. One way to "extend" your usefulness is to learn how to harness AI for personal and business growth. It will only be a short extension, but an extension nonetheless.

** 10-Apr-2023 World View: How AI will change the world

thomasglee wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2023 12:14 pm > I've been "playing" with ChatGPT 3.5
> and 4.0, which is eye-opening. Too
> many are underestimating (do not
> know how to estimate?) how much AI
> will change the world. One way to
> "extend" your usefulness is to learn
> how to harness AI for personal and
> business growth. It will only be a
> short extension, but an extension
> nonetheless.

You're absolutely right, Thomas. Most
Americans couldn't find China on a map,
so it's not surprising how few grasp the
"danger" of AI. However, more people
are learning about it every day.

In fact, here's a new story about
Jonathan Turley: "I have been writing
about the threat of AI to free
speech. Then recently I learned that
ChatGPT falsely reported on a claim of
sexual harassment that was never made
against me on a trip that never occurred
while I was on a faculty where I never
taught. ChapGPT relied on a cited
[Washington] Post article that was never
written and quotes a statement that was
never made by the newspaper."

https://jonathanturley.org/2023/04/06/d ... elligence/

In the article, Turley bemoans the fact
that there's no way to stop this. It's
going to happen whenever any nutcase
wants it to happen.

At times like this, I like to muse how,
once upon a time many years ago, I was
fantasizing about becoming famous. Now
I'm glad that I'm a nobody. Still,
anyone could be victimized by this sort
of thing.

We might try to map the public awareness
of AI into something similar to the
Elisabeth Kübler-Ross stages of grief:

• Denial: This is what I've been
  hearing for years. "AI may be able to
  play chess or go, but scientists won't
  understand the human brain for
  centuries, and so the Singularity won't
  occur for centuries."
• Anger and Depression: People lose
  their jobs; people get falsely accused
  of stuff; people begin to realize what's
  going on with AI.
• Bargaining: Politicians demand that
  AI development be halted. Liberal
  activists attack high-tech firms
  violently, and throw Molotov cocktails
  through their office windows.
• Acceptance: People realize that they
  can just sit back and let their computer
  overlords run everything.

And then kill us.

World War III, led by China and
Russia versus the West, probably in the
next 2-3 years. The most intense part
of the World War will last about five
years, with smaller regional wars (like
the current Ukraine war) occurring
before and after.

So Russia will not be on the side of the West after all?

Chinese military rehearses encirclement of Taiwan
Published
3 days ago
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65219219

NATO to Hold Its Largest-Ever Air Exercises in June
US Air National Guard will deploy 100 aircraft as part of the drills
by Dave DeCamp Posted onApril 6, 2023
https://news.antiwar.com/2023/04/06/nat ... s-in-june/

US deploys guided-missile submarine amid tensions with Iran
April 8, 2023
https://apnews.com/article/gulf-tension ... 81151914ae

3 minute readApril 8, 20234:32 AM EDTLast Updated 3 days ago
Russia's war on Ukraine latest: Kyiv's forces cling to devastated Bakhmut
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-04-01/

Russia ‘Stuns’ Ukraine With 1.5 Ton Heavy-Duty Bombs; Air Force Says ‘No Capability’ To Challenge Smart Bombs
By Ashish Dangwal- April 8, 2023
https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-stuns- ... force/?amp