Generational Dynamics World View News

[FullMoon]

This is a very insightful analysis.

We can see that it IS coming, but we don't know when. It's seemed like it could happen anytime for long enough that most people are conditioned to living in a greatly heightened state of danger. I mean, it's much more dangerous now than anytime during the Cold War and it's getting more dangerous shockingly fast. With the Taiwanese and US elections next year, I have a bad feeling that it will make 20' seem like a warm-up. John, what's your thoughts on the timeline and sequence of events? If Navigator could chime in it would be great too.

[Bob Butler]

Unless we kill the criminals first.

In the US, thinking back to the BLM days, there were multiple motivations. A very few police officers murdered out of prejudice. A lot of black people protested. A few spree killers and thugs killed and harassed protestors. Some minority criminals used the protests as an excuse and cover for criminality. I suspect more hate is not the answer, was not in the US, is not in France, which has a similar mess of motivations, unless that hate is specifically targeted against those who actually did something wrong. Still, expecting those who wallow in hate to be focused and rational would be a bit much.

[JDav]

Cluster bombs and mobilizing reservists? Is that what all you Ukraine-loving Americans wanted? We won't protect our borders from drug runners and sex traffickers (anyone have a chance to catch that Sound of Freedom movie yet?) but look what we'll do for a country halfway around the globe. Oh wait, war in Ukraine is good business for our politicians and their cronies, and an open Southern border is... good for our politicians and cronies. I think I'm beginning to see a pattern here...

[FullMoon]

https://youtu.be/IrsWejq3zKQ
China's economic collapse intensifies rapidly.

https://youtu.be/24kH4Cuvk7c
China's foreign minister "disappears" together with the arrests and assassinations of leading missile force commanders.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/a ... -rcna93030

“I don’t believe conflict is inevitable. I don’t believe it’s unavoidable,” said Gen. Mike Minihan, the head of the command. “But I also believe that ready now is what matters most. So ready now is the foundation of deterrence. And ready now is also the foundation of decisive victory.”

Minihan made headlines in January when he wrote a controversial memo warning his commanders the U.S. could be at war with China in two years. The memo directed all Air Mobility Command personnel to prepare for a potential fight with China and practice their marksmanship — “fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most.”

“Aim for the head,” Minihan added.

In an interview at U.S. Pacific Air Forces Headquarters in Hawaii, Minihan said he stands by the memo.

“I’m not trying to be provocative. I’m not trying to be coy,” Minihan said. “I’m trying to provide my formation with the tools and the action and the priority necessary to win.”

We've got somebody in leadership position actually putting their words into practice. But everyone knows this war will be an attrition of missiles and productive capacity. It's hard to find parallels with the previous Pacific war.

[FullMoon]

Cluster bombs and mobilizing reservists? Is that what all you Ukraine-loving Americans wanted? We won't protect our borders from drug runners and sex traffickers (anyone have a chance to catch that Sound of Freedom movie yet?) but look what we'll do for a country halfway around the globe. Oh wait, war in Ukraine is good business for our politicians and their cronies, and an open Southern border is... good for our politicians and cronies. I think I'm beginning to see a pattern here...

The persistence of Russia as the enemy is a derangement and disease of the outdated swamp creatures. They didn't even identify or prepare properly for the real existential war and our children will pay the price their short sightedness and ignorance.

[John]

https://youtu.be/IrsWejq3zKQ
China's economic collapse intensifies rapidly.

The following is one of the comments that appeared
following the above video:

@dongshengdi773
@dongshengdi773
12 hours ago
China has been playing hard to get for the last several months and they would not talk. Now they relented and agreed to talk with high-level American cabinet members on matters that are vital to both nations' economies. The reason why they relented is because China's economy is in big trouble. They need the West much more than the West needs China. So they're being a little bit more realistic this time." - Miles Yu.


You analyze the key difference between US and Chinese economic models. The Chinese model is rather predatory. The CCP is willing to suppress the non-state sector to ensure state control , employing policies such as zero Covid lockdowns and excessive taxation schemes. This approach even involves shutting down the main driver of China's economic growth.

You highlighted the significant trouble faced by many non-state sectors in China, which were previously the most vibrant and innovative sectors of the economy.

The three years of Covid lockdowns led to the closure of millions of small and medium sized businesses. Even prominent Chinese companies like Alibaba and Tencent, which are e-Commerce and tech giants did not fare well.

Reports indicated that the Chinese regime was planning to obtain 1% special management shares in these companies, granting the state special decisionmaking rights.

Furthermore, according to Mr. Miles Yu, China's development scheme primarily relies on issuing a substantial amount of loans for not performing projects, particularly in the housing industry. However, the housing market is now collapsing. He also noted that rapid borrowing by local governments had created an illusion of prosperity. In China, all Urban and rural Land is owned by the state or agricultural collectives, respectively.

Companies and individuals do not actually buy land. Instead, they purchase land use rights from the government for a period of up to 70 years, which can be extended. This system, most surprisingly, makes land sales the primary source of income for local governments, turning them into the largest contractors for china's developers over the past 2 decades.

As Miles Yu explains, much of the local government spending finances has come from the exploitation of the housing industry because they control the land they can sell and resell the land, but now with the collapse of the housing industry they cannot do that anymore. So that's why virtually every province of China has a huge deficit. With the collapse of the housing industry and the inability to recover those loans, the banking industry is suffering significant losses, and governments at all levels are running out of money because China's banks are state-owned. When the banking industry is in trouble, a credit crunch occurs, leading to more business closures. It becomes a chain reaction. That's why China wishes to attract more international banking institutions to salvage the collapsing economy. I hope that global financial institutions and banks are smart enough to see through this. That there's a big hot potato in China.

Miles Yu urges American companies to reconsider their investments in China. In fact, he states that decoupling has already begun, even though no country has officially adopted it as part of their strategy. At the corporation level, every major corporation must assess investments in China on whether they're safe or whether it is sound or whether it runs the risk of being repressed by a state-sponsored or subsidized Chinese company.

Miles Yu also pointed out to a July 5th report from Goldman Sachs, in which the investment bank said it has downgraded the Agricultural Bank of China from neutral to sell, while cutting the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China from buy to sell . Almost every major company that has heavy investment in China is reconsidering investment in China and thinking about getting out of China . The American companies, Many big ones are reconsidering this, precisely because of the kind of economic reality as depicted by Goldman Sachs, as depicted by a lot of policy reports about China's investment environment .

China is not a very good country for long term investments. It's a hostile investment environment . That's why for the US to win, the CCP must change the way it behaves.
.

Miles Maochun Yu (余茂春) born in 1962, is an American historian and strategist. He is also a professor of military history and modern China at the United States Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, where he directs the China Center, and the Project 2049 Institute, and the Robert Alexander Mercer Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution.

[Bob Butler]

Cluster bombs and mobilizing reservists? Is that what all you Ukraine-loving Americans wanted? We won't protect our borders from drug runners and sex traffickers (anyone have a chance to catch that Sound of Freedom movie yet?) but look what we'll do for a country halfway around the globe. Oh wait, war in Ukraine is good business for our politicians and their cronies, and an open Southern border is... good for our politicians and cronies. I think I'm beginning to see a pattern here...

Containment was the major lesson of the 1940s crisis. Even before that, conquerers like Napoleon had to be careful not to create a defensive alliance. You can’t be so blatant and obvious about your habit of conquest as to force a defensive alliance. I’m not sure why NATO remembered their purpose with Ukraine and not before, but maintaining a safeguard against serial conquerers is an old lesson.

[Guest]

https://nypost.com/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-sa ... pare-jews/

From forum favorite RFK Jr.

RFK Jr. says COVID may have been ‘ethnically targeted’ to spare Jews

[Tom Mazanec]

Here's one we haven't been looking at much...
US to send F-16 fighter jets to Gulf amid Iran shipping tensions
US defence official said Washington is considering options amid growing aggression by Russian planes in skies over Syria.
15 Jul 2023
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/1 ... g-tensions

[guest]

Russia has left Civilisation.

Russia is Uninvestable.

Learn the lessons.

Never invest and commit to Russia again. Never.