Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Guest wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2023 11:32 am

John wrote: Wed Aug 16, 2023 9:31 am

As a separate issue, Communist China's
Military chief is visiting Belarus for
three days of consultations, as Poland
is conducting military exercises along
its border with Belarus.

The Chinese general has slovenly appearance and a chinless and weak profile.

Russia’s Central Bank announced on Monday that it will convene an emergency meeting on Tuesday after the ruble fell to a 16-month low against the U.S. dollar—indicating that Western sanctions and international isolation over Russia’s war in Ukraine are taking a bite out of the country’s economy. According to new central bank data, the ruble is trading at a rate just above 101 to the U.S. dollar—a value loss of around 30 percent since the year began.

This marks the Kremlin’s weakest currency level since Russia invaded Ukraine more than 18 months ago. Now, only a handful of fiscally stricken nations—such as Turkey, Nigeria, and Argentina—are having a worse monetary year. “The whole world is laughing at us now,” said Vladimir Solovyov, a Russian TV presenter considered Moscow’s top media propagandist.

Beefeater
@Beefeater_Fella
Russian announcement on wage increases today:

State Duma deputy urged to increase the salaries of state employees by 10-15% due to rising prices, said Nikolai Arefyev, deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy.

“At the moment, the price of imported products has almost doubled compared to last year. Naturally, since prices rise, then salaries should increase from September 1, somewhere by 10-15%, depending on the calculation, ”Arefiev said.

Svetlana Bessarab, a member of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Social Policy and Veterans Affairs, said “I want to remind you that the minimum wage will increase by 18.5% on behalf of the president.

Let’s recap on other indicators:

2023 Budget deficit = 2.3trillion roubles - current actual deficit for first 7 months = 2.82 trillion Rubles ($28.2 billion).

July 2023 saw the deficit grow by 222 billion Rubles..

Capital outflows since Feb 2022 = $260 Billion

State revenues down 50% in 2023

Oil and Gas revenues down 41.4% in 2023

Interest Rate up to 12% from 8.5% in July, and 7.5% in June

Interbank rate 9.34%

Military expenditure in Jan-Feb 2023 = 2 billion Rubles

Ruble value against the USD down 39% in 2023, similar declines agains the Yuan, Rupee and Euro.

Sovereign Wealth Fund down 60% YOY, now being depleted further by propping up the Ruble.

Property rentals up 18-30%

New car prices up 18-35%

Holiday air travel up 25-75%



But the “official” inflation rate published by the FSB managed Central bank is “4.4%”

“The whole world is laughing at us now,” said Vladimir Solovyov, a Russian TV presenter considered Moscow’s top media propagandist.

Water Cannons and Lasers: South China Sea Standoff Around World War II-Era Ship Heats Up
The U.S. has reaffirmed that an ‘armed attack’ on its ally’s vessels would invoke its commitments under a mutual-defense treaty

Any accident or skirmish could escalate into conflict, with the potential to involve the U.S. After the Aug. 5 incident, the U.S. State Department reaffirmed that an “armed attack” on Philippine vessels would invoke its commitments under the two countries’ mutual-defense treaty.

Guest wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2023 12:38 pm

Water Cannons and Lasers: South China Sea Standoff Around World War II-Era Ship Heats Up
The U.S. has reaffirmed that an ‘armed attack’ on its ally’s vessels would invoke its commitments under a mutual-defense treaty

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/water-ca ... p-6d24d8d0

Any accident or skirmish could escalate into conflict, with the potential to involve the U.S. After the Aug. 5 incident, the U.S. State Department reaffirmed that an “armed attack” on Philippine vessels would invoke its commitments under the two countries’ mutual-defense treaty.

FullMoon wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2023 12:56 pm

Guest wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2023 12:38 pm

Water Cannons and Lasers: South China Sea Standoff Around World War II-Era Ship Heats Up
The U.S. has reaffirmed that an ‘armed attack’ on its ally’s vessels would invoke its commitments under a mutual-defense treaty

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/water-ca ... p-6d24d8d0

Any accident or skirmish could escalate into conflict, with the potential to involve the U.S. After the Aug. 5 incident, the U.S. State Department reaffirmed that an “armed attack” on Philippine vessels would invoke its commitments under the two countries’ mutual-defense treaty.

The mutual defense treaty covers aggression to be determined by the Philippine president. It's his decision. And there's always some level of conflict, because the Chinese have blocked their traditional fishing areas and continue to attack and harass fishermen. Unless they start shooting and then it's on.

John wrote: Tue Aug 15, 2023 7:40 am ** 15-Aug-2023 World View: China stops reporting youth unemployment rate

China announced a large stimulus
packaage today, to save its tanking
economy, which is in a deflationary
spiral.

China also announced that it will
"temporarily" stop reporting youth
unemployment rates, with the current
rate already officially above 21%.

This immediately reminded me of how Mao
Zedong closed China's statistical agency
in 1959, during the Great Leap Forward,
because it was reporting agricultural
data that he didn't want to hear. The
result was a famine that killed tens of
millions of innocent Chinese.


A Fascist like Justin Trudeau says that
he admiree China's form of government
because decisions can be made quickly
without going through a lengthy
legislative process. That's true when
the decision is a good one. But if the
decision is a bad one, then it cam't be
stopped, even if it's leading to
disaster.

*** China, facing record youth
> unemployment, says it will stop
> releasing data on it
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/chin ... -rcna99929

It is the immediate reason why the post-pandemic rebound has already fizzled and why the economy has tipped into deflation. The deeper reason is the painful unwinding of the great Communist debt bubble, an episode uncannily similar to the debt woes of the late Qing dynasty.

“We believe the Chinese economy is faced with an imminent downward spiral with the worst yet to come,” they said, warning that half-hearted tinkering by the authorities so far will not stop a wave of defaults and chain-reaction through the economy.

The country is no longer on the same trajectory as Japan, Taiwan, and Korea at a comparable point of development. The nail in the coffin is an 87pc fall in foreign direct investment last quarter, the lowest level since records began in the 1990s. That is Xi’s legacy.

Unlike Japan, it has angered the West and must now contend with strategic reshoring and a hi-tech blockade.

Joe Biden calls China’s economy a “ticking time bomb”.

My presumption is that Xi Jinping will not let it detonate on his watch. At some point he will blink and take drastic action to shore up the property market and the shadow banks, putting off the day of reckoning for another cycle.

If he does not, the global financial system is in for a dangerous denouement this winter.

FullMoon wrote: Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:07 am

Guest Cathay wrote: Sat Aug 12, 2023 1:23 am China's youth unemployment is higher than 20%. Official CCCP media reports 20% of university graduates cannot find employment. The true percentage is 80%. And none of these graduates want to join the army. The PLA is for country people who are to stupid to go to a university.

Xi has no faith in the PLA. The Chinese PLA ran away in the Sudan when African rebels attacked and abandoned Chinese civilians. The PLA has failed numerous times on operations. Against India, even when better armed, the Chinese PLA lost, eventhough media says otherwise. Xi doubts the PLA can defeat Taiwan. He will have to use atomic bombs.

Unemployment is way higher than 20% for sure.
Xi does doubt the military. The plan to take a few small islands is a test for them.
The pressure is boiling over and it's one bad thing after another for Xi. With upwards of 100 million unmarried men under 40 yrs old hardened by tough years, he's got plenty of cannon fodder and it's better that they fight for their country rather than against it.