https://www.memri.org/reports/signs-pos ... ber#_edn15
Signs Of Possible War In September-October August 31, 2023 | By Yigal Carmon
Lately there have been growing indications that a war against Israel
may break out in September or October 2023. The trigger may be
spiraling violent clashes resulting in many casualties, or the use of
new weapons leading to many fatalities on the Israeli side, in the
face of which Israel will be unable to suffice with its regular
counterterrorism measures.[12][1] While neither Hamas nor Hizbullah
are eager to start a comprehensive confrontation with Israel,[13][2]
such a confrontation could result from an uncontrolled deterioration
on the ground or from the use of new and unusually deadly weapons by
these movements.
The following are some of the factors pointing to the possibility of a
war breaking out in the coming months:
1. Growing Provocations By Hizbullah On Israel's Northern Border
In the recent months, Hizbullah has repeatedly instigated increasingly
bold provocations on the border. These included setting up tents in
the Har Dov area, inside Israeli territory;[14][3] dismantling
surveillance cameras along the border fence near Fatima Gate,[15][4]
and firing an anti-tank missile into Israel.[16][5] In addition,
Hizbullah, which does not recognize the Blue Line as the international
border between Lebanon and Israel, has recently made a new territorial
claim, demanding that Israel give Lebanon sovereignty over the
northern Rosh Hanikra railway tunnel, likewise in Israeli territory.[17][6]
At the same time, it also demands to curtail UNIFIL's freedom of
action in South Lebanon. [18][7]
2. Adoption Of Gaza Fighting Methods By Islamist Terrorist
Organizations In The West Bank, Such As The Firing Of Rockets And
Excavation Of Command-And-Control Tunnels
The Palestinian terror organizations, especially Hamas and the
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), seek to change the mode of operation
against Israel in the West Bank by duplicating the fighting methods
used by the terrorists in Gaza.[19][8] This is manifest in the firing
of rockets from the West Bank into Israel, the excavation of
"command-and-control tunnels" in the West Bank (though not, as yet,
tunnels infiltrating Israeli localities), and in military cooperation
between different terror organizations, following the example of the
Joint War Room in Gaza. There has also been an increase in efforts by
Iran and Hizbullah to smuggle weapons into the West Bank, similar to
the smuggling of weapons into Gaza.[20][9] PIJ secretary-general Ziad
Al-Nakhaleh said that, during his June 2023 meeting with Iranian
Leader Ali Khamenei, the latter had "reiterated [the need to] develop
the arming of the West Bank and the resistance there." Nakhaleh added:
"We, as Palestinians and as resistance forces and movements,
understand the importance of arming the West Bank, but this requires
efforts by the Palestinians themselves, and also the assistance of our
brothers in the Islamic Republic of Iran."[21][10]
3. Possibility Of Clashes In Al-Aqsa During The Jewish Holidays In
September, Potentially Sparking Violence Outside Jerusalem As Well
During the Jewish holidays in September and October, Jews are likely
to visit the Al-Aqsa compound, as happens every year. Hamas and
Hizbullah spokesmen have stressed that this could lead to a regional
war. Saleh Al-'Arouri, deputy chairman of Hamas' Political Bureau and
head of the movement's military wing in the West Bank, said in an
interview with the Al-Mayadeen channel: "There are some in the
[Israeli] cabinet who are contemplating measures like taking over and
dividing the Al-Aqsa mosque, and carrying out assassinations." These
people, he added, "know that this may lead to regional war." He
recalled statements made by Hizbullah secretary-general Hassan
Nasrallah, that "any attack on the Al-Aqsa mosque or on Jerusalem will
prompt a regional war." [22][11]
4. Increased Threats Of Comprehensive Regional War
The leaders of the terror organizations have recently increased their
threats of a comprehensive regional war,[31][12] in response to
Israeli threats to assassinate terror operatives and those who
dispatch them, including Hamas leader Saleh 'Arouri. In an interview
with the Al-Mayadeen channel, the latter threatened to escalate the
confrontation with Israel to the point of comprehensive war: "We are
preparing for a comprehensive war and are discussing this in closed
chambers with all the elements and components [of the resistance axis]
that are connected to this war." He added that the resistance axis has
"the presence, the motivation and the desire for a regional war to
occur, and has an interest in this."[32][13]
5. Possibility Of Unprecedented Rise In Number Of Israeli Fatalities
Following Use Of Deadly New Weapons, Compelling Israel To Respond Even
At Cost Of Comprehensive War
There have recently been increasing reports about the potential use of
new weapons by Hizbullah, Hamas and the PIJ that can cause a large
number of Israeli fatalities. In this situation, Israel will likely be
compelled to undertake a large-scale response, above and beyond its
routine counterterrorism measures, even at the cost of an all-out
war.[33][14]
It was reported lately that Israel had thwarted an attempt to smuggle
into the West Bank, via Jordan, powerful explosive devices
manufactured in Iran that spread large amounts of deadly shrapnel. The
use of such explosive devices seriously threatens Israeli troops
operating in the West Bank and can result in numerous casualties.
Journalist 'Abd Al-Bari 'Atwan, editor of the online Arabic daily
Al-Rai Al-Yawm, wrote in an article that "the coming days and weeks
will see the resistance [fighters] in the West Bank receiving advanced
weapons, provided by a number of countries and organizations,
including Kornet anti-tank missiles."[34][15]
* Yigal Carmon is the President and founder of MEMRI.
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[35][1] On the face of it, a large number of Israeli fatalities will
be nothing new, but we assess that, in the present circumstances,
Israel will undertake an unprecedented, comprehensive response, even
at the cost of a comprehensive war with Iran, which is activating the
Islamist resistance organizations on the ground.
[36][2] Recall that both movements are involved to some extent in
regional natural gas initiatives that will be undermined by a major
confrontation.
[37][3] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), June 1, 2023.
[38][4] Twitter.com/alishoeib1970, July 14, 2023.
[39][5] According to the Lebanese online daily Al-Mudun, the rocket
was fired by "Lebanon" (i.e., Hizbullah) in protest against Israel's
"annexing" of the village of Ghajar, which straddles the
Israel-Lebanon border. The daily stressed that the firing of the
rocket had been deliberately timed to coincide with Hizbullah's
issuance of a statement on this matter. (almodon.com, almanar.com.lb,
July 6, 2023).
[40][6] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), July 16, 2023.
[41][7] See, for example, remarks by Ahmad Qabalan, a Shi'ite cleric
close to Hizbullah, who said recently that "there is no room for
international forces of any kind that come at the expense of Lebanon's
sovereignty… We will not agree to any alternative to the national
formula for defense of the homeland… The time of violating Lebanese
territory has passed, and what happens in the [UN] Security Council
does not interest us" (almanar.com.lb, August 28, 2023).
[42][8] See MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 1707 – [43]Palestinian
Terror Organizations Are Duplicating Gaza Strip Fighting Methods In
West Bank, August 8, 2023
[44][9] It should be noted that the armament efforts in the West Bank
are energetically assisted by the Islamic Republic of Iran, and on
orders of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Khamenei issued these
orders a decade ago, and successive commanders of Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps have declared numerous times that they are
implementing these orders. Hamas and PIJ leaders regularly thank Iran
publicly for its military aid to their organizations, including inside
the West Bank. On this see MEMRI reports: Inquiry and Analysis No.
1107, Qods Day In Iran: [45]Tehran Calls For Annihilation Of Israel
And For Arming The West Bank, July 25, 2014; [46]Special Dispatch No.
10721 - Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Secretary-General Ziad
Al-Nakhaleh In Interviews With Iranian Media: We Manufacture Weapons
Thanks To Aid Provided By Iran And Seek To Arm All West Bank Cities;
No Jew Anywhere In The World Lives In Greater Danger Than The Jews In
Palestine – July 24, 2023; [47]Special Dispatch No. 10124 - In Tehran
Visit On The Eve Of The Gaza-Israel Conflict, Palestinian Islamic
Jihad (PIJ) Leader Nakhaleh, Iranian Regime Heads Praise Iran's
Support For PIJ; IRGC Qods Force Commander Qa'ani: 'The Palestinian
Fighters Are At The Stage Of Planning To Strike The Final Blows
Against The Rotting Body Of The Zionist Regime, When The Time Is
Right' – August 8, 2022; Special Dispatch No. 9946 - On International
Qods Day, Instituted By The Iranian Regime, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic
Jihad, Hizbullah And Other Iran Allies Call For Jihad Against Israel,
Threaten Regional War – May 4, 2022; [48]Special Dispatch No. 9717 -
On Second Anniversary Of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani's Killing,
Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad Continue To Praise Him; Controversy
In Gaza Over Billboards Commemorating Him – January 10, 2022; [49]Inquiry
& Analysis Series No. 1588 - Destruction Of Israel By The Sword Or By
Referendum – Part II: Senior Iranian Regime Officials Link Iran To The
May 2021 Gaza Conflict, Urge Hamas And Palestinian Islamic Jihad To
Continue Their Fight Against Israel – July 22, 2021; [50]Special
Dispatch No. 9123 - Marking Anniversary Of Killing Of IRGC Qods Force
Commander Qassem Soleimani, Hamas Continues To Signal Loyalty To Iran,
Resistance Axis – January 5, 2021.
[51][10] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 10721 - [52]Palestinian
Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Secretary-General Ziad Al-Nakhaleh In Interviews
With Iranian Media: We Manufacture Weapons Thanks To Aid Provided By
Iran And Seek To Arm All West Bank Cities; No Jew Anywhere In The
World Lives In Greater Danger Than The Jews In Palestine – July 24,
2023.
[53][11] Almayadeen.net, August 25, 2023.
[54][12] These threats of regional war join the rhetoric that the
Palestinian resistance factions have long been voicing about
establishing a balance of terror and deterrence vis-à-vis Israel, and
about uniting the resistance fronts in any future confrontation with
Israel. See e.g. [55]MEMRI TV Clip of [56]statement by PIJ
Secretary-General Al-Nakhaleh in April 2023; see also MEMRI Special
Dispatch No. 10562 - [57]Lebanese Media Reports: On The Evening Before
The April 6, 2023 Rocket Attack On Israel, Iranian Qods Force
Commander Esmail Qaani Visited Lebanon, Met With Officials From
Hizbullah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad – April 13, 2023.
[58][13] An exchange of threats has also been ongoing between Israel
and Hizbullah. In response to a statement by Israeli Defense Minister
Galant that, "if Hizbullah starts a war we will send Lebanon back to
the Stone Age" (ynet.co.il, August 8, 2023), Nasrallah said: "You too
will go back to the Stone Age if you start a war against Lebanon"
(alahednews.com.lb, August 14, 2023). In a May 25, 2023 speech,
Nasrallah said in response to threats by Israeli PM Netanyahu, "You
are not the ones threatening a large-scale war. It is we who threaten
you with such a war. Any large-scale war will include all the
borders, and hundreds of thousands of fighters will participate in it"
(It should be noted that the resistance organizations do not have such
a number of fighters) (alahednews.com.lb, May 25, 2023).
[59][14] In this context it should be mentioned that the Islamist
resistance organizations always have the option of renewing the
suicide bombings in crowded places like buses and restaurants. Such
attacks are nothing new, but will nevertheless force Israel to respond
with measures that are not part of its regular counterterrorism
policy.
[60][15] Raialyoum.com, August 25, 2023.