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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:47 pm
by DaKardii
Hey, John. I figured you would be interested in this.

Twenty-six years after William Strauss and Neil Howe published The Fourth Turning, Howe has published a direct follow-up titled The Fourth Turning Is Here.

Per Howe's website:
The visionary behind the bestselling phenomenon The Fourth Turning looks once again to America’s past to predict our future in this startling and hopeful prophecy for how our present era of civil unrest will resolve over the next ten years—and what our lives will look like once it has.

Twenty-five years ago, Neil Howe and the late William Strauss dazzled the world with a provocative new theory of American history. Looking back at the last 500 years, they’d uncovered a distinct pattern: modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting roughly eighty to one hundred years, the length of a long human life, with each cycle composed of four eras—or “turnings”—that always arrive in the same order and each last about twenty years. The last of these eras—the fourth turning—was always the most perilous, a period of civic upheaval and national mobilization as traumatic and transformative as the New Deal and World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution.

Now, right on schedule, our own fourth turning has arrived. And so Neil Howe has returned with an extraordinary new prediction. What we see all around us—the polarization, the growing threat of civil conflict and global war—will culminate by the early 2030s in a climax that poses great danger and yet also holds great promise, perhaps even bringing on America’s next golden age. Every generation alive today will play a vital role in determining how this crisis is resolved, for good or ill.

Illuminating, sobering, yet ultimately empowering, The Fourth Turning Is Here takes you back into history and deep into the collective personality of each living generation to make sense of our current crisis, explore how all of us will be differently affected by the political, social, and economic challenges we’ll face in the decade to come, and reveal how our country, our communities, and our families can best prepare to meet these challenges head-on.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:48 pm
by DaKardii
One interesting note is that Howe believes the crisis climax will occur around 2030, not 2025 as many of here have believed.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2023 1:45 pm
by Cool Breeze
DaKardii wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:48 pm One interesting note is that Howe believes the crisis climax will occur around 2030, not 2025 as many of here have believed.
Just from a probability point of view, this is more realistic. What do you think he's really saying, though, that he won't frankly say out loud full on hot war at that point, and weird stages of mini battles (cold, info, "plagues", food issues) until that time?

Also, what kind of nonsense catch all statement is this?
Every generation alive today will play a vital role in determining how this crisis is resolved, for good or ill.
LOL. The people around will contribute to whether the outcome is good or bad.

Uhhh, DUH. Double DUH!

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:58 pm
by FullMoon
DaKardii wrote: Thu Sep 07, 2023 11:48 pm One interesting note is that Howe believes the crisis climax will occur around 2030, not 2025 as many of here have believed.
I have listened to a few good podcasts with Howe. He's knowledgeable and articulate.
I wonder how to describe the difference between crisis climax and Regeneracy.
I think we'll have a Regeneracy event soon, maybe next year.
With 2020 as a warm up. I think it come on as fast as spring 20' and it will be clear that something fundamental has changed. Vague it seems, but it's getting clearer as the time gets closer.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2023 3:24 pm
by Cool Breeze
So you've figured out what he is actually saying?

Do tell.

It's amazing to me that you can sell books like a Seinfeld episode. "Genius! It's a show based on nothing!"

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2023 4:02 pm
by John
** 15-Sep-2023 World View: Today's news

Watching tv news channels today, there
are lots of disasters in progress.

There's a major catastrophe going on in
eastern Libya, after two dams collapsed.
Millions of tons of water have flooded
the port city of Derna, which is a large
city with millions of people. The water
has completely destroyed much of the
city, with many buildings destroyed and
washed into the Mediterranean Sea. Many
thousands have been killed and tens of
thousands are missing.

Torrential rains are also causing floods
in Sudan.

This follows last week's massive
earthquake in Morocco.

Migrants from Libya and other Afican
countries are flooding into Lampadusa,
which is an Italian island in the middle
of the Mediterranean sea. Lampadusa is
being overwhelmed, so Italian
authorities have begun moving hundreds
into the Italian mainland.

There's also a flood of migrants
crossing from Europe continent into
Britain. Several people in this forum
have written about this.

These migrant flows are similar to the
caravans of migrants from Central
America and elsewhere in the world
crossing America's southern border.

At tne end of WW II, during the Recovery
Era (First Turning), national leaders
implemented mechanisms to handle the
migration situation. Like every other
political mechanism implemented during
the Recovery Era, the new generations
don't bother to support it, and so it's
crumbling, leading to the massive
migrant flows.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2023 11:13 pm
by FullMoon
Cool Breeze wrote: Fri Sep 15, 2023 3:24 pm So you've figured out what he is actually saying?

Do tell.

It's amazing to me that you can sell books like a Seinfeld episode. "Genius! It's a show based on nothing!"
Uh yeah. He's really down to earth and personable in the podcasts that I've seen this year. And it's been pretty straightforward and easy to understand. Maybe you're just too smart to understand a simple thing someone older could enjoy

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2023 11:14 am
by Cool Breeze
FullMoon wrote: Fri Sep 15, 2023 11:13 pm
Cool Breeze wrote: Fri Sep 15, 2023 3:24 pm So you've figured out what he is actually saying?

Do tell.

It's amazing to me that you can sell books like a Seinfeld episode. "Genius! It's a show based on nothing!"
Uh yeah. He's really down to earth and personable in the podcasts that I've seen this year. And it's been pretty straightforward and easy to understand. Maybe you're just too smart to understand a simple thing someone older could enjoy
So ... you responded and told me you like listening to ... nothing? I'm very seriously asking, what is he actually saying? You just confirmed that he says nothing but you're mesmerized by it.

As much as I think Higgie overstates things and doesn't understand others, at least he's made very direct and bold predictions. For that I commend him.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:31 pm
by guest
What does Generational Dynamics say about the Trans-gender and CRT issues? I would categorize them under depravity or immoral decadence. Is this a kind of decline of Rome kind of situation? Does GD predict things like this? I saw a really good TV clip of Alistair Cooke discussing the decline of the US in 1973.

'Freakishness in the arts"

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz6hmGiOn2I[/youtube]

He would be "cancelled" for saying things like this today...

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2023 6:15 am
by Bob Butler
guest wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 9:31 pm What does Generational Dynamics say about the Trans-gender and CRT issues? I would categorize them under depravity or immoral decadence. Is this a kind of decline of Rome kind of situation? Does GD predict things like this?
One way you could apply it is saying this is hatred and oppression of those that are different.