Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Bob Butler wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2023 2:16 pm Another thought. Normally regions are pretty invincible. Most lands are occupied, and folks need their roads paved and children educated. But science projects sea level rise that for example exceeds the highest point in Florida. Other Pacific islands have vanished beneath the waves. While many here disregard science if it predicts something inconvenient, in this case in might be an example of thinking states invincible. Maybe not?

People who are buying 30 year mortgages would be looking at this and other factors. I think we know that, say, 3 years ago investors were willing to buy 30 year mortgages on residential property in coastal cities that returned somewhere around 3 or 4 percent. I don't think they were favoring properties further inland. If that perception begins to change, what would we be looking for? We also know investors can ignore real problems for a long time but they eventually do sniff them out, so the fact that investors were buying these 30 year mortgages paying these rates in 2020 doesn't mean there won't be a problem in 2040. Also, the mortgage market isn't independent of other interest rates. The 30 year bond rate applies to the entire country and mortgage interest rates would be so many basis points higher. So that presents a problem if lenders feel they have lots of risk in coastal areas but not so much further inland. Probably the first indication of a real problem would be loans getting rejected and property values falling in coastal areas versus inland areas. We also might see 30 year mortgage rates drift higher relative to 30 year bond rates or shorter term mortgages.

Bob Butler wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2023 2:16 pm
But science projects sea level rise that for example exceeds the highest point in Florida. Other Pacific islands have vanished beneath the waves.

My understanding is that worst case scenario is that the sea will rise another 5 metres by 2300.
Okay so the Dutch have been practising 'dyke technology' for a very long time. To protect valuable real estate e.g. London, New York, etc how much better can we expect dyke technology to develop? Massively I would suggest.
If you look at human history over time with climate cycles some places have become more favouravle others less favourable. We need to expect this especially as it seems that humans are assisting with climate warming at present. You might not remember this but when I was at school in the 1950's I remember scientists say that the planet was cooling and one day there wouldn't be enough food because of the cooler environement.
Sea rising will happen but is simply scare tactics by climate boffins trying to make bucks out of all this

richard5za wrote: Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:28 amSea rising will happen but is simply scare tactics by climate boffins trying to make bucks out of all this.

The number I was able to find was .3 to 2.4 meters sea rise from 2000 to 2100, depending on how hard we fight the warming. Florida’s mean elevation is 30 meters, so it is not in immediate danger of disappearing. Still, they anticipate Miami Beach mostly underwater given a moderate hurricane.

How do you see scientist working at government agencies and universities profiting from making false predictions?

Just as well I am elderly and live on top of a high hill.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/u ... -sea-level

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Oct 30, 2023 9:19 pm Probably the first indication of a real problem would be loans getting rejected and property values falling in coastal areas versus inland areas. We also might see 30 year mortgage rates drift higher relative to 30 year bond rates or shorter term mortgages.

Or we may first see younger people avoiding purchases in coastal areas.

impacts in Eilat
fafo scaling up

From the inception this was never going to end well
Israeli girls raped and their bodies dragged through the street
Hamas crossed every line and they will pay for every single crime

Target eliminated in northern camp.
Go south as warned.
June 15, 2021 - JERUSALEM (AP)
A new poll released Tuesday finds a dramatic surge in Palestinian support for Hamas following last month's Gaza war.
3 weeks ago - While the majority of Gazans (65%) ... Hamas in Gaza” this year, a similar percentage (62%) supported Hamas maintaining a ceasefire with Israel. Moreover, half (50%) agreed with the following proposal: “Hamas should stop calling for Israel’s destruction, and instead accept ...
They will not even have mud huts. All sides making money on these alleged modern lunatics.

Do not hurt the oil and the wine is the same as do not hurt the green grass of the earth - do not hurt the sealed of God.

The famine is severe and is part of the judgment of God upon the churches of men who have no understanding
(no knowledge = black horse = famine of hearing the words of God)

Bob Butler wrote: Tue Oct 31, 2023 6:45 am

richard5za wrote: Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:28 amSea rising will happen but is simply scare tactics by climate boffins trying to make bucks out of all this.

How do you see scientist working at government agencies and universities profiting from making false predictions?

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/u ... -sea-level

The obvious one is fundraising and taking a commission. I must say that in your pic you look young not elderley. Is this a false pic?

richard5za wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2023 8:16 am

Bob Butler wrote: Tue Oct 31, 2023 6:45 am

richard5za wrote: Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:28 amSea rising will happen but is simply scare tactics by climate boffins trying to make bucks out of all this.

How do you see scientist working at government agencies and universities profiting from making false predictions?

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/u ... -sea-level

The obvious one is fundraising and taking a commission. I must say that in your pic you look young not elderley. Is this a false pic?

It's probably from 1976.

I coached hockey for 18 years. never seen anything like this. if a professional hockey player raises his skate above his head, it’s intentional. Petgrave was also the most penalized player in the league last year. it was a terrible tragedy, but will be worse if he doesn’t go to prison for manslaughter.

Capt Obvious wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2023 11:11 am I coached hockey for 18 years. never seen anything like this. if a professional hockey player raises his skate above his head, it’s intentional. Petgrave was also the most penalized player in the league last year. it was a terrible tragedy, but will be worse if he doesn’t go to prison for manslaughter.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/nhl/a ... grave.html

Adam Johnson's family pay tribute to the hockey player who died after his neck was sliced by Matt Petgrave during Panthers game

richard5za wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2023 8:16 amI must say that in your pic you look young not elderley. Is this a false pic?

It is a pretty old picture, but not innacurate or retouched. The big difference is more grey hair.