Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Navigator wrote: Sun Oct 08, 2023 11:53 pm I look at it from the Arab side too.

Israel was tearing itself apart internally. So they attack now? Before that plays out? And re-unify Israel and re-emphasize the external dangers to it?

Are they complete hot-headed idiots? (rhetorical question)

The cultural, religious and emotional motivations in that part of the world are intense beyond reason. It would be hard for an outsider to understand. Too many religions, tribes and ambitions. I've mostly given up on trying to understand the Middle East beyond not trying to change anyone at gunpoint. Apparently Hamas is trying to do just that to Israel. I doubt they will succeed.

BB, I gave up on trying to understand the Middle East decades ago.

https://youtu.be/EUeUFfJcoGg?si=-Ft7wgj2jb2BgUiP

Schumer bows to the Yellow Emperor as he laughs about the attack on Israel.
Because he's got a hand in it. Sino-Sunni Axis as per GD is shaping up.
Welcome back Navigator, best wishes for your family's health.
Please stay around as we watch the end game unfold.

Tom Mazanec wrote: Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:51 am BB, I gave up on trying to understand the Middle East decades ago.

Prudent. US religion, prejudice, the rich and tribalism is bad enough without trying to figure the Middle East out too. In some ways though, it is all variations of the same thing. Everyone wants to be in charge, not be dictated to, or to dictate to someone else.

Humans...

Bob Butler wrote: Mon Oct 09, 2023 10:57 am

Tom Mazanec wrote: Mon Oct 09, 2023 6:51 am BB, I gave up on trying to understand the Middle East decades ago.

Prudent. US religion, prejudice, the rich and tribalism is bad enough without trying to figure the Middle East out too. In some ways though, it is all variations of the same thing. Everyone wants to be in charge, not be dictated to, or to dictate to someone else.

Humans...

Yes, especially by leftist radicals who want to teach children there are over a hundred genders.

** 09-Oct-2023 World View: History of Gaza Strip

The following material is from the
CIA World Factbook:

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ ... aza-strip/

The Gaza Strip has been
under the de facto governing
authority of the Islamic Resistance
Movement (HAMAS) since 2007, and has
faced years of conflict, poverty,
and humanitarian crises. Inhabited
since at least the 15th century
B.C., the Gaza Strip area has been
dominated by many different peoples
and empires throughout its history;
it was incorporated into the Ottoman
Empire in the early 16th
century. The Gaza Strip fell to
British forces during World War I,
becoming a part of the British
Mandate of Palestine. Following the
1948 Arab-Israeli War, Egypt
administered the newly formed Gaza
Strip; Israel captured it in the
Six-Day War in 1967. Under a series
of agreements known as the Oslo
Accords signed between 1993 and
1999, Israel transferred to the
newly-created Palestinian Authority
(PA) security and civilian
responsibility for many
Palestinian-populated areas of the
Gaza Strip as well as the West Bank.

In 2000, a violent intifada or
uprising began, and in 2001
negotiations to determine the
permanent status of the West Bank
and Gaza Strip stalled. Subsequent
attempts to re-start negotiations
have not resulted in progress toward
determining final status of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel
in late 2005 unilaterally withdrew
all of its settlers and soldiers and
dismantled its military facilities
in the Gaza Strip, but it continues
to control the Gaza Strip’s land and
maritime borders and airspace. In
early 2006, HAMAS won a majority in
the Palestinian Legislative Council
election. Fatah, the dominant
Palestinian political faction in the
West Bank, and HAMAS failed to
maintain a unity government, leading
to violent clashes between their
respective supporters and HAMAS’s
violent seizure of all PA military
and governmental institutions in the
Gaza Strip in June 2007. Since
HAMAS’s takeover, Israel and Egypt
have enforced tight restrictions on
movement and access of goods and
individuals into and out of the
territory. Fatah and HAMAS have
since reached a series of agreements
aimed at restoring political unity
between the Gaza Strip and the West
Bank but have struggled to enact
them.

Palestinian militants in the Gaza
Strip and the Israel Defense Forces
periodically exchange projectiles
and air strikes, respectively,
threatening broader conflict. In May
2021, HAMAS launched rockets at
Israel, sparking an 11-day conflict
that also involved other Gaza-based
militant groups. Egypt, Qatar, and
the UN Special Coordinator for the
Middle East Peace Process have
negotiated ceasefires to avert a
broader conflict. Since 2018, HAMAS
has also coordinated demonstrations
along the Gaza-Israel security
fence. Many of these protests have
turned violent, resulting in several
Israeli soldiers’ deaths and
injuries as well as more than 200
Palestinian deaths and thousands of
injuries, most of which occurred
during weekly March of Return
protests from 2018 to the end of
2019.

** 09-Oct-2023 World View: Generational Analysis of Mideast War

I have written something similar to the
following paragraph many times in the
last 20 years:

The general Generational
Dynamics forecast is that there will
be a larger regional Mideast war
that is coming with 100% certainty,
pitting Arabs vs Jews, Sunnis vs
Shias, and various ethnic groups
against each other. This will be
part of the Clash of Civilizations
world war, and nothing can be done
to prevent it.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
generational crisis wars are fought
between identity groups and their alliances.

**** Mideast alliances

In the past, I tried to identify the
major sets of alliances among the
Mideast nations and identity groups.
Here's my current estimate:

• Iran, Syria, Lebanon's
  Hezbollah, Iraq Shia militias, Yemen
  Houthis
• Turkey, Qatar, some Syria opposition
  factions, Hamas/Islamic Jihad, Muslim
  Brotherhood
• Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Egypt,
  some Syria opposition factions, Jordan,
  Oman, Kuwait, Palestinian Authority. To
  some extent, Israel is a part of this
  alliance.

**** Atrocities

Hamas's attack on Israel was extremely
complex, and required coordination among
thousands of Gazan fighters who launched
thousands of rockets and missiles, or
who walked or drove trucks or rode
motorcycles or flew in gliders or rode
in boats into southern Israel and killed
or abducted men, women and children in
their beds.

The day of the attack was chosen because
of a large music festival. The
terrorists entered the festival and
killed or abducted hundreds of people,
including a dozen Americans. The
abducted people were taken back to Gaza.

Iran is denying it, but reports indicate
that Iran has been orchestrating the
invasion in a series of meetings with
Hamas since August. From the point of
view of Generation Dynamics, the Mideast
is particularly difficult to analyze
because of multiple generational
timelines. The last crisis war climax
for Saudi Arabia occurred in the 1920s,
for Israel and the Palestinians in the
late 1940s, for Syria and Lebanon in the
early 1980s, and for Iraq and Iran in
the late 1980s. Each of these timelines
and their interactions has to be
analyzed separately to get precise
forecasts for the future of the Mideast.

Both Mossad and the CIA, which are
supposed to be the best intelligence
services in the world, were completely
blindsided, despite the complexity of
the invasion.

The war escalated today (Monday) when
clashes broke out between Hezbollah
and Israel on the Lebanon-Israel
border.

**** Atrocities

Hamas has released video of their
militants gleefully comitting committing
rapes, beheadings, murders, and other
atrocities.

Many of these atrocities are being
cheered, even by some pro-Palestinian
Americans like AOC and other "Squad"
members.

We can also be fairly certain that Iran
is considering a similar invasion of the
United States using Hezbollah terrorists
coming through America's open southern
border.


**** Mideast Generational Timelines

From the point of view of Generation
Dynamics, the Mideast is particularly
difficult to analyze because of multiple
generational timelines.

The last crisis war climax for Saudi
Arabia occurred in the 1920s, for Israel
and the Palestinians in the late 1940s,
for Syria and Lebanon in the early
1980s, and for Iraq and Iran in the late
1980s.

Each of these timelines and their
interactions has to be analyzed
separately to get precise forecasts for
the future of the Mideast.

**** Population

Yesterday, someone asked me, "Why is
this happening? What do they hope
to accomplish? War never has any
purpose."

Since I'm a particularly charming
person, I told her, "That isn't
true. The population grows
faster than the food supply, and
so war is essential so that the
survivors have enough to eat."
She just walked away in disgust.

Nonetheless, that's the way that the
world works. This is especially true of
the Gaza Strip, a small enclave (140
square miles) with over two million
people in the most densely packed region
of the world.

Or, you can't forget one of the basic premises of Generational Dynamics. Humans have a basic instinct to hate, oppress and kill those who are different. They have lots of cultures, a lot of which see each other as different. If you wallow in this territorial instinct, if you see land as resources as the ability to survive, you get to a worst case desire to hate, oppress and kill the different real quick.

I would not be surprised if we didn't see the following timeline:

1. Israel cuts off all utilities into Gaza. Food, Electricity, Water. (already done).
2. Israel moves into Gaza along the Egyptian border, cutting off Gaza from potential resupply from Egypt.
3. Naval blockade of Gaza. Siezure of ANY shipping entering the blockade zone (allowed when you are at war, ala British blockade of Germany in WW1).
4. Israel offensive into southern Lebanon. Moving well north of Litani River, say as far north as Sidon.
5. As Israel moves through southern Lebanon, it forces ALL civilians north of the Litani River.
6. Methodical movement further into Gaza.
7. Forced displacement of ALL civilians from occupied Gaza areas into Lebanon north of Litani River.
8. Eventual forced displacement of all of Gaza population from Gaza strip into Lebanon north of Litani River.
9. Should West Bank Arabs get involved, 7 and 8 would also apply to them, though most would high-tail it into Jordan instead (the West Bank ones all had Jordanian citizenship in the past).
10. Israel withdraws to the Litani River line. Leaving the Arabs from Gaza north of the River.

This would provide Israel with much more defensible borders, and would put the Arabs out of a location where they continue to threaten central Israel.

Yes, this means the forceible relocation of about 2.5M people from Gaza strip to Lebanon.

This was all done before, by EUROPEANS in the aftermath of WW2. As I mentioned before, the Czechs forced about 3M Germans out of their country in 1945/6, while the Poles forced out about 6M from territory given them by the winning Allied powers (Silesia and East Prussia, which had been German for about a thousand years). This effectively ended any potential resurgence of Irredentism on the part of Germany.

The problems for the Arabs right now is that they are in an incredibly weak position. In the past, the Arab countries were supported by the Soviet Union (and until recently by Russia). What on earth is Russia going to do in the Middle East at this point? (rhetorical question). Similarly, to the north, Syria was a major military force that the Israelis had to deal with. That too is effectively gone.

There would definitely be pressure on Israel not to continue past 3/4 above, but what has Israel to lose at this point? The Europeans already hate them, and while US support would end after they get to #6 above, they could still pull it off, as by then the Arabs would have very limited means to resist left.

It's obviously hard for many reasons regionally and internationally, not that they care. They do things the west claims is bad for its nations all the times (by all the victims/communists/socialist, many of whom are jews). But your comment about "what they have to lose" acts like something HUGE just happened, and it really didn't. Hamas just got away with one, while the Jewish leaders including Netanyahu apparently didn't take the Egyptian and other sources seriously, who were telling them something was planned. Or they let it happen so they could act now. Who knows.