Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Guest wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 4:28 am 10 Days Warning: Israel Knew in Advance - Did they Ignore Egyptian Intelligence or Let Hamas Attack... ?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-int ... thing-big/

Egypt intelligence official says Israel ignored repeated warnings of ‘something big’
Cairo official says Israel focused on West Bank instead of Gaza; Egypt’s spy chief said to warn PM of ‘terrible operation,’ Netanyahu denies it

9 October 2023, 11:26 am 183

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) meets with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (C) and military chiefs at IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv for a security assessment on October 8, 2023. (GPO)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) meets with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (C) and military chiefs at IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv for a security assessment on October 8, 2023. (GPO)
Mounting questions over Israel’s massive intelligence failure to anticipate and prepare for a surprise Hamas assault were compounded Monday when an Egyptian intelligence official said that Jerusalem had ignored repeated warnings that the Gaza-based terror group was planning “something big” — which included an apparent direct notice from Cairo’s intelligence minister to the prime minister.

The Egyptian official said Egypt, which often serves as a mediator between Israel and Hamas, had spoken repeatedly with the Israelis about “something big,” without elaborating.

In evaluating whether or not the Hamas attack/invasion was a major Israeli intelligence failure, we need to consider the following:

Prior to the 1973 Yom Kippur war, when Israel was supposedly "caught with its pants down" (and actually what could be considered Israel's largest intel failure ever, as it was competently invaded from 2 directions simultaneously by sizable heavy conventional armies - Egypt and Syria), Israel evidently had the intel that both the Egyptians and Syrians were fully mobilized and intended to invade.

Their governmental leaders at the time realized that if they mobilized in response, and then the Arabs didn't attack, the Arabs would figure out that they could cripple Israel WITHOUT needing to attack.

In mobilizing, Israel basically shuts down most of its economy as every able bodied man and many women (with the stupid exception of Orthodox Jews - Ben Gurion's self admitted worst mistake - who he allowed to be exempted from Military Service) are Reservists and they stop working to join their units and prepare for war.

So what the 1973 leadership realized was that the Arabs could just move their armies to the border, look like they were preparing to attack, and the Israeli Army would fully mobilize. Then the Arabs would eventually move away from the border, without firing a shot or crossing any lines, and would have done major damage to the Israeli economy.

If they did this enough times, they would bring Israel to its knees.

Recognizing this, the 1973 Israeli leadership made the conscious and rational decision NOT to mobilize until the Arabs attacked. They gambled that their mobilization would get forces to the war zones fast enough to stop the Arabs [note - this was very close - especially in the Golan Heights - as the Syrian Army almost got into Israel proper. Not with a bunch of guys on pickup trucks, but with multiple Tank Divisions].

The point is that the Israelis cannot take major counter-action until the Arabs actually do something.

As for not putting the Kibbutzes on high alert, that is another thing. But the Kibbutzes have been on high alert so often, most of them probably stopped paying attention (IF they were given any kind of warning). At least one Kibbutz did take appropriate action, and attacks against it were thwarted.

spottybrowncow wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 8:39 pm

Guest wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 8:05 am Over 2 million people packed into 140 square miles in Gaza.

I'm confused.
America has taken in millions of "refugees," Europe has taken in millions - what's stopping these mere 2 million people from emigrating to a western democracy? Surely they'd be at the top of any liberal "preference list." What gives?

This is why I posted about Israel forcibly evicting the Gazans. If they send them to Lebanon, they will have a clear walking path to Europe.

But since they declared war on Hamas, they could actually retain all military aged males as POWs and put them in work camps making road gravel or digging irrigation ditches. This is allowed by the Geneva Convention.

An even more sinister option would be to keep all the children under 6, place them in "protective foster care" in Israel and raise them as the Israeli equivalent of the Ottoman Janissaries.

Navigator wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 7:57 pm

But since they declared war on Hamas, they could actually retain all military aged males as POWs and put them in work camps making road gravel or digging irrigation ditches. This is allowed by the Geneva Convention.

An even more sinister option would be to keep all the children under 6, place them in "protective foster care" in Israel and raise them as the Israeli equivalent of the Ottoman Janissaries.

None of which the world would ever tolerate.

Guest wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:03 pm

Navigator wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 7:57 pm

But since they declared war on Hamas, they could actually retain all military aged males as POWs and put them in work camps making road gravel or digging irrigation ditches. This is allowed by the Geneva Convention.

An even more sinister option would be to keep all the children under 6, place them in "protective foster care" in Israel and raise them as the Israeli equivalent of the Ottoman Janissaries.

None of which the world would ever tolerate.

What would the "world" do? Would it come together and attack Israeli - Nope. Would it treat Israel as a pariah - It already does so. The ability of the "world" to put pressure on Israel at this point is basically zero.

The USA is a different story, it has clout. But now that Hamas has done barbaric things like beheading babies, and actually posting pictures/video of it doing so, mean that the USA would even tolerate the POW situation described above and the forced relocation of Gazans.

Navigator wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:06 pm

Guest wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:03 pm

Navigator wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 7:57 pm

But since they declared war on Hamas, they could actually retain all military aged males as POWs and put them in work camps making road gravel or digging irrigation ditches. This is allowed by the Geneva Convention.

An even more sinister option would be to keep all the children under 6, place them in "protective foster care" in Israel and raise them as the Israeli equivalent of the Ottoman Janissaries.

None of which the world would ever tolerate.

What would the "world" do? Would it come together and attack Israeli - Nope. Would it treat Israel as a pariah - It already does so. The ability of the "world" to put pressure on Israel at this point is basically zero.

The USA is a different story, it has clout. But now that Hamas has done barbaric things like beheading babies, and actually posting pictures/video of it doing so, mean that the USA would even tolerate the POW situation described above and the forced relocation of Gazans.

No way. Demographic and social changes in the US won't support it.

Slavery is a no go.

Navigator wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:06 pm

Guest wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:03 pm

Navigator wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 7:57 pm

But since they declared war on Hamas, they could actually retain all military aged males as POWs and put them in work camps making road gravel or digging irrigation ditches. This is allowed by the Geneva Convention.

An even more sinister option would be to keep all the children under 6, place them in "protective foster care" in Israel and raise them as the Israeli equivalent of the Ottoman Janissaries.

None of which the world would ever tolerate.

What would the "world" do? Would it come together and attack Israeli - Nope. Would it treat Israel as a pariah - It already does so. The ability of the "world" to put pressure on Israel at this point is basically zero.

The USA is a different story, it has clout. But now that Hamas has done barbaric things like beheading babies, and actually posting pictures/video of it doing so, mean that the USA would even tolerate the POW situation described above and the forced relocation of Gazans.

I can tell you want Turkey would do.

Navigator wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:06 pm

Guest wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:03 pm

Navigator wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 7:57 pm

But since they declared war on Hamas, they could actually retain all military aged males as POWs and put them in work camps making road gravel or digging irrigation ditches. This is allowed by the Geneva Convention.

An even more sinister option would be to keep all the children under 6, place them in "protective foster care" in Israel and raise them as the Israeli equivalent of the Ottoman Janissaries.

None of which the world would ever tolerate.

What would the "world" do? Would it come together and attack Israeli - Nope. Would it treat Israel as a pariah - It already does so. The ability of the "world" to put pressure on Israel at this point is basically zero.

The USA is a different story, it has clout. But now that Hamas has done barbaric things like beheading babies, and actually posting pictures/video of it doing so, mean that the USA would even tolerate the POW situation described above and the forced relocation of Gazans.

I think it is time to reign in the hyperbole.

US warns Israel to ‘uphold laws of war’ as Gaza faces onslaught
Biden says ‘respect for international law’ imperative as UN warns the humanitarian situation is deteriorating for Palestinians

The US congress is already splitting on racial lines, much the same as the UK. The First Minister of Scotland, a Scottish born Pakistani, is married to a Palestinian from Gaza. Her family is trapped in Gaza, perhaps even now homeless. Scotland has refused to fly the Israeli flag. The Israeli flag was taken down by crowds in several English cities last night and replaced with the Palestinian flag.

Several Israeli officials have already implicated themselves in war crimes; the same utterances would definitely be used against Russian generals and officials who said the same things.

Rear-Adml Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israeli military, said on Tuesday that “hundreds of tons of bombs” had been dropped on Gaza in response, stressing that “the emphasis is on damage and not on accuracy”.

Separately, an unnamed Israeli defence official told broadcaster Channel 13 on Wednesday that Gaza would be reduced to a “city of tents” by the end of the campaign.

The situation in Gaza already qualifies as a war crime.

Nearly 200,000 Palestinians in the 25-mile coastal strip have been left homeless from the Israeli air assault and have gathered in hotels, hospitals and UN-run schools in the hopes that they will not be harmed there.

Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defence minister, drew criticism from UN officials and human rights groups by forcing a “total siege” of Gaza, cutting off water, food and energy supplies for 2.3 million people.

The UN said the humanitarian situation in Gaza was deteriorating after its sole power plant ran out of fuel.

Under the internationally accepted rules of armed conflict, enshrined by the Geneva Conventions, military attacks must be proportionate and not lead to excessive loss of civilian life or infrastructure.

As the intentions of the Israelis are clear, there have also been clear warnings.

The US warned Israel to “uphold the laws of war” as its airstrikes flattened neighbourhoods in Gaza ahead of an expected ground invasion.

President Joe Biden said Israel had a right to respond to the attacks by Hamas, the worst in its 75-year history, but warned its retaliatory action must be “according to the rule of law”.

Mr Biden dispatched his top diplomat, Antony Blinken, to Israel on Wednesday.

As he boarded the plane, the US Secretary of State said it is “our respect for international law and the laws of war” that “separates Israel, the US and other democracies” from Hamas and terrorist groups that engage in “heinous” activities.

He added: “We know that Israel will take all of the precautions that it can” to avoid civilian casualties, “just as we would”.

Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, echoed the call on Wednesday, urging a “proportionate” Israeli response that protected “innocent civilian lives”.

War crimes on the scale of what Navigator has spoken of will not be accepted.

DT Subscriber wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 10:33 pm

Navigator wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:06 pm

Guest wrote: Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:03 pm

None of which the world would ever tolerate.

What would the "world" do? Would it come together and attack Israeli - Nope. Would it treat Israel as a pariah - It already does so. The ability of the "world" to put pressure on Israel at this point is basically zero.

The USA is a different story, it has clout. But now that Hamas has done barbaric things like beheading babies, and actually posting pictures/video of it doing so, mean that the USA would even tolerate the POW situation described above and the forced relocation of Gazans.

I think it is time to reign in the hyperbole.

US warns Israel to ‘uphold laws of war’ as Gaza faces onslaught
Biden says ‘respect for international law’ imperative as UN warns the humanitarian situation is deteriorating for Palestinians

The US congress is already splitting on racial lines, much the same as the UK. The First Minister of Scotland, a Scottish born Pakistani, is married to a Palestinian from Gaza. Her family is trapped in Gaza, perhaps even now homeless. Scotland has refused to fly the Israeli flag. The Israeli flag was taken down by crowds in several English cities last night and replaced with the Palestinian flag.

Several Israeli officials have already implicated themselves in war crimes; the same utterances would definitely be used against Russian generals and officials who said the same things.

Rear-Adml Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israeli military, said on Tuesday that “hundreds of tons of bombs” had been dropped on Gaza in response, stressing that “the emphasis is on damage and not on accuracy”.

Separately, an unnamed Israeli defence official told broadcaster Channel 13 on Wednesday that Gaza would be reduced to a “city of tents” by the end of the campaign.

The situation in Gaza already qualifies as a war crime.

Nearly 200,000 Palestinians in the 25-mile coastal strip have been left homeless from the Israeli air assault and have gathered in hotels, hospitals and UN-run schools in the hopes that they will not be harmed there.

Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defence minister, drew criticism from UN officials and human rights groups by forcing a “total siege” of Gaza, cutting off water, food and energy supplies for 2.3 million people.

The UN said the humanitarian situation in Gaza was deteriorating after its sole power plant ran out of fuel.

Under the internationally accepted rules of armed conflict, enshrined by the Geneva Conventions, military attacks must be proportionate and not lead to excessive loss of civilian life or infrastructure.

As the intentions of the Israelis are clear, there have also been clear warnings.

The US warned Israel to “uphold the laws of war” as its airstrikes flattened neighbourhoods in Gaza ahead of an expected ground invasion.

President Joe Biden said Israel had a right to respond to the attacks by Hamas, the worst in its 75-year history, but warned its retaliatory action must be “according to the rule of law”.

Mr Biden dispatched his top diplomat, Antony Blinken, to Israel on Wednesday.

As he boarded the plane, the US Secretary of State said it is “our respect for international law and the laws of war” that “separates Israel, the US and other democracies” from Hamas and terrorist groups that engage in “heinous” activities.

He added: “We know that Israel will take all of the precautions that it can” to avoid civilian casualties, “just as we would”.

Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, echoed the call on Wednesday, urging a “proportionate” Israeli response that protected “innocent civilian lives”.

War crimes on the scale of what Navigator has spoken of will not be accepted.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ght-hamas/

Tom Mazanec wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2023 4:21 am Per capita, Saturday’s attack was much larger than Pearl Harbor or 9/11 were to America. And worse, it was on the Jewish Sabbath. I once spoke to a senior citizen back in the 80s who said what most angered Americans in 1941 was that the attack was on Sunday. This is sure to get ugly.

Why should we care, Tom?

Do I want anything bad to happen to anyone? No. Israel doesn't care one iota about us and advocates special privileges for their country while actively undermining ours. Let them deal with their own situation, they wanted what they got, and have to live with it.