Trevor wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 5:22 am
More and more, hopes to keep the war between Israel and Hamas "contained" are disappearing. I doubt Israel's going to care about international pressure for a cease-fire at this point. I didn't know exactly when or how, but I knew at some point Hamas was going to do something big enough to where Israel decided to squash them, world opinion be damned.
I haven't forgotten how we felt after September 11th, with even bleeding-heart liberals ready to turn Afghanistan into a graveyard. Given the October 7th attacks were more brutal, with hundreds raped, tortured, and murdered, many of whom had been sympathetic to the Palestinians. Netanyahu might not be popular, but any repercussions will wait until after the conflict. If we weren't in the region, Israel would likely hit them even harder. The Middle East is a powder keg at the best of times, but once the war includes Hezbollah en masse, I'd expect that to be the point of no return.
One thing to keep in mind about China: we won't be fighting them alone. At a minimum, they've got South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, the last of which is crucial to our strategy. Given their hysterical response to their congratulations to the winner of Taiwan's election, common diplomatic protocol, they've managed to alienate almost everyone. North Korea and Pakistan can offer little but cannon fodder. Russia might sell them oil and gas, but if there's no other source thanks to an Allied blockade, I can guarantee Putin will take full advantage.
Cyberattacks are a greater worry for me in the early stages than China's military. They haven't fought a conflict since the Sino-Vietnamese War, in which their performance was poor. Actually being able to invade Taiwan, a mountainous island, is a daunting task, and they've been prepared for decades. While I don't think China will be able to shut everything down, they'll still manage to inflict a great deal of damage.
And China's moment is fading. 15-20 years ago, it was common thought that they'd replace us as the world superpower, and we should just accept it. However, given that their population is shrinking, to the point where they recovered a decrease in 2022. (If the CCP is publicly admitting their population's shrunk, it's likely been doing so for several years) Their economy is slowing, and world investment into their nation has already disappeared, thanks to Covid. Japan had a similar difficulty, but they became rich before they became old. For all their growth, China is still a middle-income country, with 1/4th the income per capita that the U.S. possesses, assuming the CCP numbers are accurate.
In 1941, Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor was motivated by more than mere fanaticism. Japan's Navy at the time were stronger than their American counterparts, but they couldn't hope to keep up with American production, with was starting to move to a war footing. That gap would grow with time, and Japan couldn't hope to keep up. Hitler attacked the Soviet Union for a similar reason in June 1941: he was as strong as he was going to be in comparison to his real enemy, and was already suffering from shortages in food and fuel. It was now or never.