Generational Dynamics World View News

[navigator1]

Seems to work, so I will give it a try.

In regards to Trevor's recent post, I did not say that Russia's military would suddenly become top-notch, but that they would steadily improve over years. In 2022, they looked similar in competence to the 1939 Russian forces that attacked Finland. It was not until 1942/3 that they had basic competency, and 44 that they were reasonably competent. The same slow process is going on now.

Russia has mostly fixed its basic equipment issues for troops, and its war economy is ramped up, thanks to infusion of Chinese cash.

Russians have gained invaluable combat experience in the Ukraine, and is learning to master the basics of static and drone warfare, which Western militaries still do not comprehend (more on this later today or tomorrow).

The current giant "game-changer" is the agreement with North Korea. Not because it will release needed artillery ammunition, but because it will most likely release manpower resources for Russia. I have already started seeing reporting that North Korea is probably going to start sending large numbers of troops to the Ukraine front. This could take a couple of months, but it is something that would tip the balance.

The North Koreans could easily make a couple of hundred thousand troops available to the Russians as infantry fodder. Yes, they would have to be transported and supplied, but I bet those arrangements are well underway. It would actually be a benefit to the North Koreans as well, as the Russians/Chinese would be feeding troops that are now on starvation rations, plus those that survive would gain combat experience.

[Guest]

And captured North Koreans could be dangerous for the NK regime. What if large numbers just started surrendering? Putting NK troops in Ukraine would carry serious risks for the Kim clan.

[Guest]

And captured North Koreans could be dangerous for the NK regime. What if large numbers just started surrendering? Putting NK troops in Ukraine would carry serious risks for the Kim clan.

I have to add, I have met North Korean refugees, and they are radically hostile to the regime and Kim Jung un. All of the defecting soldiers from North Korea are from elite units. I don't see a mass deployment like that going well for North Korea.

Putin's visit to North Korea was filled with shockingly embarrassing episodes like Putin giggling with Kim as he drove him around in his new Russian car and Kim giving Putin 2 dogs as gifts. Putin looked like an idiot.

As someone else posted, what must Russians think of all this?

[Guest]

“Almost every headline and what passes as ‘news’ in the United States, is a cry for help.” — Karen Kwiatkowski

[Guest]

The North Koreans could easily make a couple of hundred thousand troops available to the Russians as infantry fodder. Yes, they would have to be transported and supplied, but I bet those arrangements are well underway. It would actually be a benefit to the North Koreans as well, as the Russians/Chinese would be feeding troops that are now on starvation rations, plus those that survive would gain combat experience.

No, they couldn't. A huge number, perhaps half of North Korea's troops are women. Most coastal artillerists are women. At least half of the rocket artillery troops are also rumored to be women. A huge percentage of the airforce pilots are also women, and so on.

North Koreaan birthrates are said to be better than South Korea's, but that doesn't take into account infant mortality and deaths from malnutrition and untreated disease and injuries, and the fact that the North Korea's birthrate is still very low. South Korea closes dozens of public schools every year because of a lack of children and now is considering drafting women into the armed forces to free up men for combat postions. North Korea has been doing this for over two decades. North Korea claims to have 26 million citizens, I read it could be as low as under 19 million.

We really don't know what is going on over there, but we do get the occcasional peek, and what we see is not good. I find it impossible that North Korea would send 200,000 troops to fight in Ukraine. Maybe 20,000, which would be significant, but not half their male soldiers. And what if the North Koreans are easily defeated by battle hardened Ukrainian troops? What then?

[FullMoon]

“Almost every headline and what passes as ‘news’ in the United States, is a cry for help.” — Karen Kwiatkowski

I would probably say something more vulgar about the state of our national "news". Clown World is the least vulgar.

[navigator1]

North Korea could indeed send substantial numbers (as I stated) to try to tip the balance to Russia's favor.

I'm not some solitary voice about this. Here is a public article that alludes to it (see second paragraph)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -Kyiv.html

North Koreans aren't going to surrender en-masse. They are too brainwashed. Plus the regime will threaten to torture to death the families of anybody who does. [As a point of reference, the Chinese committed almost 3Million troops into Korea in the Korean War. Only about 20,000 surrendered]

We are indeed facing an alliance of China-Russia-North Korea-Iran. IMHO, we are going to see Asian troops of this alliance in Ukraine, if not Europe. If Ukraine falls, the Russians are not going to stop. The one thing Europe doesn't have to defend itself is manpower.

[navigator1]

Regarding US middle eastern interventions since 1990s - I also disagree with how these wars were prosecuted. In each case, we should have installed some kind of strong man - then left as quickly as possible. It was NEVER going to be possible to convert these places to democracies. Their cultures would not allow it.

But WHEN the US is attacked by the China-Russia-NorthKorea-Iran alliance, we will need to defend it. As bad as things are politically and culturally in the US, it would be immeasurably WORSE if XI and Putin were in charge of the world.

[Trevor]

Out of the roughly three million troops that China sent to fight in the Korean war, between 600,000-900,000 died from the fighting. At the time, they possessed the fanaticism necessary, not to mention Mao didn't care how many he lost, given tens of millions died from the Great Leap Forward.

Putin might be able to claim something of a victory, but his war has lasted for 28 months. When it broke out, almost everyone expected it to be a Russian Desert Storm, myself included. Our aid for the first several months was designed for an insurgency, not a slugging match. Given their losses are around 120-150,000, with twice as many wounded, that's a serious blow to Russia's young men. Taking into account the number of deaths we can confirm with names, it's not much lower for Ukraine, and they have a much smaller population.

Since the end of the Cold War, our military has been designed for sharp, decisive conflicts, or ongoing insurgencies. The idea of a total war still isn't something we consider, and while we do have the capability to rebuild, this would take time. Good news is: China's likely to have the same issue. The bad news is, they're already starting, supporting Russia under the table.

North Korea's desperately poor, but they have a massive military. 200-300,000 troops in Ukraine might not be easy to support, but they have the troops to spare. It's taken longer than it did during the previous world wars, but I do agree that the Ukrainian invasion will lead to a larger conflict.

It's not only a proxy war between Russia and NATO, it's becoming a proxy war between China and Europe, North and South Korea, and even various conflicts in the Middle East and Africa.

[Guest]

North Korea could indeed send substantial numbers (as I stated) to try to tip the balance to Russia's favor.

I'm not some solitary voice about this. Here is a public article that alludes to it (see second paragraph)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -Kyiv.html

North Koreans aren't going to surrender en-masse. They are too brainwashed. Plus the regime will threaten to torture to death the families of anybody who does. [As a point of reference, the Chinese committed almost 3Million troops into Korea in the Korean War. Only about 20,000 surrendered]

We are indeed facing an alliance of China-Russia-North Korea-Iran. IMHO, we are going to see Asian troops of this alliance in Ukraine, if not Europe. If Ukraine falls, the Russians are not going to stop. The one thing Europe doesn't have to defend itself is manpower.

In 1950, the PLA was a battle hardened, victorious, and wildly patriotic and enthusiastic fighting force. Today, the PLA is untested and filled with dregs. A huge difference.

North Koreans working overseas are constantly monitored because they are always trying to escape from work sites. the average North Korean is aware of the South's overwhelming prosperity.

I agree, Western Europe is WEAK and filled with worthless, freeloading illlegals and benefit scroungers.