Generational Dynamics World View News

[Navigator]

Navigator, we'll need to turn the Russians the other way if we want to have a chance with the Sunni/Sino Axis. Do you think we're blundering by getting ever more estranged and angry at each other?
How much will religion play in the minds of the Russians when the Middle East finally explodes and how will religion factor into the equation in determining the parties and course of the war in that region? Will Sunni expand outward?

I believe that the Russians and Chinese are fully aligned. I think that Russia has taken the action to estrange itself from us, and is to blame for what has happened. I understand the points about the expansion of NATO appearing to "threaten" Russia, but Russia has been controlled by a dictator for the past 20 years whose pipe dream was always to rebuild the USSR - hence everyone bordering Russia wanting to join NATO.

My opinion has always been that we are going to be up against China-Russia-North Korea-Iran, with possible additions as things get underway (Pakistan, Venezuela, Cuba and others would probably join in, especially if we suffer serious reverses at the start). We might as well deal with any of the 4 primary evil actors as if they were our arch enemies right now (however, leaving the starting of shooting to them). Cut trade, cut "partnerships", try to hurt them now economically and reduce their ability to prepare for the big war that is right around the corner.

The Russian leadership is not religious, they seem to only care about power (& money). Their objective is to do whatever they think will hurt the US and its allies. At this point though, they are basically just a weak vassal to China, who is currently using them to deplete US and Allied resources for when the global war starts.

I do not believe that Europe is going to be able to sit back and let the others "duke it out". I eventually see a lot of land based military resources from Asia going to Russia to help them and then move into the wests "soft underbelly", Europe. I also think that it is likely that NATO will fracture when this starts. Turkey, Hungary, and now even France could potentially decide to try and "sit out" a NATO call to Arms. Turkey is preparing for war under their dictator, and my guess is that he is focused more on hated Greece than trying to take over Syria (which right now is a trash dump that nobody would want).

Israel is about to take on Hezbollah, and may very well be looking at implementing the plan I proposed for them back in October. They could eventually do this under the cover of a wider war. The Saudi's may actually want this to happen to reduce Iranian power/influence. In the scenario of a global war, the Arabian Sunnis would not get very far pushing into anyone else's territory. Though Pakistan would try to grab what India controls in disputed areas, if not more.

[Clarkmod]

Moderation and forum administration issues can be posted in this thread that John created:
https://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 092#p72092
That way the GD World View News thread can continue on with the more recent news related discussion uninterrupted.

[Jack Edwards]

Navigator wrote: I believe that the Russians and Chinese are fully aligned.

I'm curious as to your take. A lot of "experts" are describing the recent agreements that North Korea and Russia made as something frustrating to China. Is it your view that everything going on between NK and Russia was sanctioned in advance by China? Is it a way for the Chinese to launder equipment and people to the Russian war effort, allow them to say, "It's not us, it's the North Koreans, we can't help what they do"?

Thanks again for your contributions

Jack

[thinker]

From what I have researched the Chinese military is nowhere near ready for a war, I am not saying they will not start one , I am saying that they are not ready. They have a real lack of experience and real world military knowledge and most of their weapons systems are not as good as the propaganda coming out of China would have us believe. You add all the problems with corruption on top of that and it gets even worse. I am not saying they are not dangerous, on the contrary I think they are very dangerous, I am not saying they will win, again I think we will ultimately win but it will be very costly for us. Some say that out military sucks and is a shell of itself, well I don't believe we are as good as we used to be but for as bad as we may be the Chinese military I believe is much worse, and remember we can always improve. I also think Russia either has the upper hand in the relationship with China or it will have it eventually. My thinking is that China has the factories but Russia has the natural resources. You can build factories and manufacturing capacity but you can't create natural resources, so in the end Russia has the upper hand. I think at some point in the war China will make a play for Russian land and resources and at that time the partnership will be over and I do believe that if Russia is going to pivot to us this will be the time when it happens. For now Russia is more than happy to use Chinese and North Korean munitions and all the mercenaries that their "friends" are willing to supply.

[thinker]

In France the rightwing nationalists are crushing Macron and the far left. I think this will play out throughout Europe , North America and the rest of the Anglo sphere and I can see a future with large scale deportations happening as well as migrants being offered deals in exchange for being cannon fodder and if someone thinks that they will not take the deal, I think a lot of them will, remember at the time these deals will be offered the world is going to be a very different place and those deals are going to be much more desirable than they would be right now. I know some of you may say that the migrants are not smart enough to use our advanced weapons systems but that is not what they will be used for , think more along the lines of waves of migrant soldiers coming at the enemy draining resources and men. Again this may sound far fetched now but in the future it won't be far fetched at all.

[thinker]

One last thing, I think the real right will control most of the world or at least the Anglo sphere for a few generations after the war. If you are paying attention to some of the trends I have seen you will see that the real right wingers are having children at a much higher rate than the left or even the milk toast "right wingers". This is due to many factors related liberalism and leftists beliefs, basically they are a macro death cult. The biggest reason the left needs control of things like the media and the education system is because their beliefs don't allow for building social systems that can perpetuate themselves so eventually they can't even get enough converts to hold onto any control that they have gained.
I have one more subject I want to touch on. I believe that Tom has said in the past that rebuilding after the war will be much more difficult and that things will be far worse than the aftermath of the last world war. One of the reasons he gives is because the environment is worse today. Well I think the environment is not only better today but with the knowledge we have today as well as the technology we have and continue to develop , the rebuild will be in a lot of ways easier than what we think it will be. I know this sounds like a lot of sunshine pumping but short of an all out nuclear war I think that this is how things will play out. As usual I am interested in what the forum members think of what I have brought up.

[Navigator]

Navigator wrote: I believe that the Russians and Chinese are fully aligned.

I'm curious as to your take. A lot of "experts" are describing the recent agreements that North Korea and Russia made as something frustrating to China. Is it your view that everything going on between NK and Russia was sanctioned in advance by China? Is it a way for the Chinese to launder equipment and people to the Russian war effort, allow them to say, "It's not us, it's the North Koreans, we can't help what they do"?

I believe the Chinese are calling most (if not all) of the shots. North Korea is not going to do anything major without Chinese approval. They are completely dependent on China, and China is happy to use them as a disrupter.

The main thing the Chinese are providing the Russians right now is funding. Russia was able to invigorate its military industrial complex by offering workers in military industries premium wages compared to the rest of the Russian economy. China's support made this possible. China is also supplying all kinds of non-weapon supplies to the Russians. Look at the increased trade between the two countries, and what this trade consists of.

North Korea is sending artillery ammunition to China, probably due to the Chinese replenishing any diminishment to the North Korean stockpile, and this way the Chinese can in fact say that they are not involved in sending arms to Russia.

[Navigator]

From what I have researched the Chinese military is nowhere near ready for a war, I am not saying they will not start one , I am saying that they are not ready. They have a real lack of experience and real world military knowledge and most of their weapons systems are not as good as the propaganda coming out of China would have us believe. You add all the problems with corruption on top of that and it gets even worse. I am not saying they are not dangerous, on the contrary I think they are very dangerous, I am not saying they will win, again I think we will ultimately win but it will be very costly for us. Some say that out military sucks and is a shell of itself, well I don't believe we are as good as we used to be but for as bad as we may be the Chinese military I believe is much worse, and remember we can always improve. I also think Russia either has the upper hand in the relationship with China or it will have it eventually. My thinking is that China has the factories but Russia has the natural resources. You can build factories and manufacturing capacity but you can't create natural resources, so in the end Russia has the upper hand. I think at some point in the war China will make a play for Russian land and resources and at that time the partnership will be over and I do believe that if Russia is going to pivot to us this will be the time when it happens. For now Russia is more than happy to use Chinese and North Korean munitions and all the mercenaries that their "friends" are willing to supply.

Yes, the Chinese have serious weaknesses, but so do we, the main one being that most of the heavy manufacturing in the world (read - "industries readily converted to military production") was moved to China over the last 30 years. We can look at the strengths and weaknesses of both sides in more detail in the coming days.

Right now, Russia is dependent on China, and is the weaker of the two in the partnership. Following your logic regarding industry and resources, it would mean that Australia would be stronger than China, as it has lots of resources, but little industry. China's means, manpower, and industry mean that it is calling the shots, while Russia's strength and clout has been serious diminished due to its extreme blundering in Ukraine.

Russia is not going to pivot to the West. It is fundamentally a dictatorship/oligarchy, just like China. Russia's (Putin's) desire is a rebuild of the USSR and at a minimum the same world standing that it had in the 1970's.

There will be problems between the Chinese and the Russians due to divergent strategic goals, but the same was true of the bad guy alliances in both WW1 (Germany and Austria-Hungary) and WW2 (Germany and Japan). But they are not going to go at each other until they take out the democracies first.

[Navigator]

In France the rightwing nationalists are crushing Macron and the far left. I think this will play out throughout Europe , North America and the rest of the Anglo sphere and I can see a future with large scale deportations happening as well as migrants being offered deals in exchange for being cannon fodder and if someone thinks that they will not take the deal, I think a lot of them will, remember at the time these deals will be offered the world is going to be a very different place and those deals are going to be much more desirable than they would be right now. I know some of you may say that the migrants are not smart enough to use our advanced weapons systems but that is not what they will be used for , think more along the lines of waves of migrant soldiers coming at the enemy draining resources and men. Again this may sound far fetched now but in the future it won't be far fetched at all.

NATO is in big trouble. France under the right wing would probably pull out of the military structure. Turkey would probably refuse to engage the Russians and might go after Greece instead. Hungary would probably stay neutral or even attempt to ally with Russia. Italy and Spain could just refuse to send troops out of their borders. The only real fighters left would be Poland, Finland and Sweden. God only knows what the UK under Labor would do (as they barely have a military right now, and Labor would probably shut down most of the rest of it). The UK would probably fight, but they have little to do it with.

And to top it off, if Trump wins, which is highly likely right now, the US would most likely pull all military resources out of Europe, and leave them to their own devices (see recent comments by Trumps probable National Security Advisor). Ukraine aid would effectively end.

Once actual fighting starts in Europe, the Europeans are going to have the same problem with their illegal immigrants that we do, namely that they will ally themselves with their countries of origin (and engage in sabotage), or use the chaos of war to start looting and pillaging. Some may join the militaries of their host countries, but I don't think it will be very many at all. Impressing them into the military and arming them would produce mutinous units that would do FAR more damage to the country doing this than to that country's enemies.

[Navigator]

One last thing, I think the real right will control most of the world or at least the Anglo sphere for a few generations after the war. If you are paying attention to some of the trends I have seen you will see that the real right wingers are having children at a much higher rate than the left or even the milk toast "right wingers". This is due to many factors related liberalism and leftists beliefs, basically they are a macro death cult. The biggest reason the left needs control of things like the media and the education system is because their beliefs don't allow for building social systems that can perpetuate themselves so eventually they can't even get enough converts to hold onto any control that they have gained.
I have one more subject I want to touch on. I believe that Tom has said in the past that rebuilding after the war will be much more difficult and that things will be far worse than the aftermath of the last world war. One of the reasons he gives is because the environment is worse today. Well I think the environment is not only better today but with the knowledge we have today as well as the technology we have and continue to develop , the rebuild will be in a lot of ways easier than what we think it will be. I know this sounds like a lot of sunshine pumping but short of an all out nuclear war I think that this is how things will play out. As usual I am interested in what the forum members think of what I have brought up.

WW3 will result in the destruction of the bankrupt welfare states. None of the current democracies would have the means left to provide the benefits and social services that they do now. All of the west would have to go back to something akin to 1900 levels of government spending and social involvement. Western cultures are totally unprepared for the consequences of this, and there will be MASSIVE social unrest as people experience this reality. Nobody is going to be able to control what happens as society devolves VERY quickly.