Financial topics

[aedens]

The only way the economy can heal is through the market. However painful the healing process, only the market can bring about full recovery. Government cannot do it. Friedrich Hayek offered a remarkable explanation of this in The Fatal Conceit. He wrote: “The creation of wealth is not simply a physical process and cannot be explained by a chain of cause and effect. It is determined not by objective physical facts known to any one mind but by the separate, differing, information of millions, which is precipitated in prices that serve to guide further decisions.” In other words, wealth is created by the market. Hayek further warned: if you do not trust the market, then you no longer believe in freedom or capitalism. In that event you are a socialist on the road to serfdom.

Washington has clearly been warned and either the free market or we will be slaves to our enemy's. There is no other way and this country must heed the plain fact's. There is no reset button it is back to freedom of the market and mistakes where made with cold calculation to take your liberty. Anything else invites the enemy at the gate. Pain now or certain destruction of freedom. Ask any free market in Moscow since there is none since they are now dead.
The President clearly understands this. This culture clearly does not think enough. Fix the market, is to acept the consequnces now. According to Illarionov the Russian regime is a KGB regime, and the United States policy toward this regime is worse than appeasement. It is best characterized as retreat. Since the collapse of the USSR all American efforts to improve relations with Russia have come to nothing, says Illarionov, and new initiatives from President Obama are doomed; this is because the Americans fail to recognize the nature of the Russian regime. There is an unwillingness to grasp “the internal logic and intentions of the Russian leadership.” It seems that the free world is unable to deal with powerful authoritarian regimes. In order to deal with Russia, certain facts must be admitted. First, Russia is not a democracy, the Russian people are not free, and the “central place in the Russian political system is occupied by the Corporation of the secret police.” The secret police of Russia compose a brotherhood, and a system of order. This brotherhood, says Illarionov, is highly disciplined and enforces loyalty with “the ultimate penalty.” They readily use violence against others, and are ruthless in the pursuit of power. They dominate and bully ordinary Russians, who cannot oppose them. They dominate the state apparatus, holding 77 percent of the top 1,016 government positions. There is virtually no independent mass media in Russia, and the level of anti-U.S. propaganda is greater now than in Soviet times.
Even more frightening, the Russian government has killed tens of thousands people, jailing dissidents on trumped-up charges. Many journalists and independent-minded politicians have been assassinated.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 1320#p3215

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... start=1310

[John]

> World economy stabilising says Krugman
> Mon May 25, 2009 7:54am EDT

> ABU DHABI, May 25 (Reuters) - The world economy has avoided
> "utter catastrophe" and industrialised countries could register
> growth this year, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said
> on Monday.

> "I will not be surprised to see world trade stabilise, world
> industrial production stabilise and start to grow two months from
> now," Krugman told a seminar.

> "I would not be surprised to see flat to positive GDP growth in
> the United States, and maybe even in Europe, in the second half of
> the year."

> http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSLP39747

[aedens]

[quote="John"][quote]
> World economy stabilising says Krugman
> Mon May 25, 2009 7:54am EDT

>
> "I will not be surprised to see world trade stabilise, world
> industrial production stabilise and start to grow two months from
> now," Krugman told a seminar.

A Trend can be bent but being spared is a different study.
Conveyed May 9th - In Europe, companies are faced with the additional challenge of labor laws that make reducing their workforces nearly impossible.

Conveyed may 8th - The old performance metric do not apply. We poised ourselves for this down turn. July 8th 2008 I forwarded 20% staff reduction.
Trust me on this some still do not get it. As forwarded off the record some peers do expect October numbers to happen but the trepidation
is intense. Junk-bond investors who have spurred the biggest rally on record are getting ahead of the recovery as the rate of company failures is about to surge, according to debt strategists from at least six Wall Street firms. “This is a very dangerous bet at this time in the economic cycle,”
beware...
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/k ... ch-v2.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/26/busin ... f=business

Fools rush in http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... =exclusive

One point has become clear in the past year. Many people in the hedge-fund industry didn’t know as much about investment as they thought they did. And now it turns out, they don’t know much in business either.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1243294 ... ts_news_us

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... mnist_lynn

But Summers argued that such an attitude was a political non-starter, particularly as globalization "encourages the development of stateless elites whose allegiance is to global economic success and their own prosperity rather than the interests of the nation where they are headquartered."

Ask any free market in Moscow since there is none since they are now dead. The President clearly understands this. This culture clearly does not think enough. Fix the market, is to acept the consequnces now. According to Illarionov the Russian regime is a KGB regime, and the United States policy toward this regime is worse than appeasement. It is best characterized as retreat. Since the collapse of the USSR all American efforts to improve relations with Russia have come to nothing, says Illarionov, and new initiatives from President Obama are doomed; this is because the Americans fail to recognize the nature of the Russian regime. There is an unwillingness to grasp “the internal logic and intentions of the Russian leadership.”
===================================================================================== UPDATE
---May 28 (Bloomberg) -- From his secret hideaway, BTA Bank’s former Chairman Mukhtar Ablyazov says Kazakhstan’s government caused the default of the nation’s largest lender. Kazakh prosecutors want him for allegedly embezzling the bank’s money. ---

---The biggest losers in the dispute may be investors who poured into the former Soviet state as crude oil rose to a record and the economy grew 10 percent annually for eight years. Now, with petroleum prices down and the recession starving banks of credit, Kazakhstan’s image as a beacon of rising capitalism is being shattered by three banking defaults in six weeks. ---


The Consumer is the final decision in the process we are witness to Gentlemen.

[malleni]

...
The shorter term path that the dollar will take is where we differ

Correct.
Regard Jimmy Rogers and "strong dollar" I already wrote about one juggle (fraud) FED already used.
(It is today a habit to use the word "fraud" when we are talking about US authorities or FED ):

Fed Using Currency Swaps To Boost The Dollar
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

Of course it is not FIRST time that FED making this failed policy:
http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/internat ... f/history/

As said already - today - this is present situation:
"...
All told, the Fed's balance sheet reported $308.8 billion in central bank liquidity swaps April 1.
..."

Implications:
1) There would be no need to secure these new agreements if the fed hadn’t already used most of its existing $308.8 billion in central bank liquidity swaps.
2) This implies that unwinding the Federal Reserves existing swaps would leave the US with close to 300 billion in foreign denominated debt.
3) This development also implies that much of the dollar’s recent rally has been artificially created by the Federal Reserve’s 300 billion currency swap intervention...
(Just in opposite from "theorist" of Day D, and "strong dollar lover")

It is obvious that - the dollar bubble is reaching its final stages.

So I think that we should not be besotted by day to day changes, since "the trend" is more important.

Lets give Rogers some more time... (as you suggested at least 6-12 months)

[malleni]

I just read to day some interesting articles:
- Kohn Says Fed Asset Purchases May Boost Economy by $1 Trillion
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... er=economy

Or this comments:
-Yen, Dollar Strengthen on North Korean Missile-Test Concern
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... r=currency
Strange that :
"The U.S. will increase debt sales to $3.25 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., as President Barack Obama borrows record amounts to try to snap the recession in at least 50 years. Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook on the U.K.’s AAA credit rating May 21 to “negative” from “stable,” raising concern that the same may happen to the world’s biggest economy. "

1 TRILLION (!) is obviously nothing for S&P.... 3.25 TRILLIONS (!!!!!) just "raising concern"...
I am sure that many of Anglo-Saxon journalists strong believe that all other nations on this Planet are:
1- absolutely stupid,
2- absolutely ignorant.
Hm...
Higgenbotham , when I just see those numbers - the feeling of "strong dollar" - died.
But, perhaps you are right. We need obviously not to wait too long

Additionally:
I am not sure for others, but each time when I read something like "Moody’s Investors Service placed the financial strength ratings of" - (... I can nothing but giggle...)
This time criminals from "reputable" US credit rating agency Moody (the same story is for S&P too) - "find 2 banks in Bulgaria!... Wou!
They (same as all other "reputable" US credit rating agencies) - as said many times on this forum AND actually everywhere - could not recognize NONE of huge catastrophic events started in US until today - BUT somehow (?) these idiots find 2 Bulgarian banks...?
Please... Give me a brake.

And if that is one of the "main reasons" for little stronger dollar today - than I really have nothing more to say...

That is not at all strange that China is finally decided to finish this Anglo-Saxon joke and fraud called (wrongly!) US credit rating agencies!
- China unveils first sovereign credit rating standards
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009- ... 424836.htm

Lets give Chinese little more time.
Perhaps those credit rating agencies (finally NOT US!) - giving little bit more light in this dark, fraudulent "night" caused with US authorities, FEd, "rating" agencies and all criminal organisations made in USA built to support collapsing dollar monetary system.
Finally, who than Chinese can do this job better?

[JWest]

I'm not sure if anyone here has seen this, but I just had to share it.
It had me rolling on the floor, alternately, laughing and crying:

http://www.wimp.com/reservelosing/

[freddyv]

John,

I just read your article on Laszlo Birinyi again and in reading this quote:

About 70% of the gains in this rally have occurred in the last hour of trading every day. That tells me that people want to get back in, and when the market starts to do a little better then they rush back in. That's why we've been seeing these strong afternoon rallies. So I think there's still an awful lot of money that needs to be deployed into stocks, and the alternatives are not too exciting

...something pretty obvious occured to me:

He is part of the PPT (Plunge Protection Team).

Now I am normally not given to conspiracy theories but in this case it makes a lot of sense in that it fits with historical precedence. Such times of financial crisis have a history of intervention and attempted intervention by government officials as well as wealthy individuals who believe they need to do whatever it takes to preserve their wealth. I also subscribe to Gene Inger's newsletter and this guy has some pretty good contacts and he suggests he KNOWS the PPT exists.

As I look at it it seems obvious that Birinyi Associates is a perfect company to utilize since it is privately owned and it it feeds earnings data to various media outlets. They would only have to get to one man, Laszlo Birinyi, in order to have a great deal of effect.

The other option is simply that these guys are trying to cover their asses after going full on bullish last December with statements like this:

Researchers at Birinyi Associates commented Wednesday that the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index’s descent to 750 would not be repeated, citing the market’s ability since November 20 to weather bad news.

The S&P has since dropped as low as 666.

--Fred

[freddyv]

I'm not sure if anyone here has seen this, but I just had to share it.
It had me rolling on the floor, alternately, laughing and crying:

http://www.wimp.com/reservelosing/

I could only stare in disbelief. Just when you think you have seen everything....

What startles me is that we live in a country where this could happen and so few seem to care. I think we may have to accept that Generational Dynamics may be overruled by the fact that we are in the death throes of our republic and rather than go into crisis mode and then rebuild we may just sit around watching Internet Porn, American Idol and playing video games while America crumbles around us.

--Fred

[wvbill]

I'm not sure if anyone here has seen this, but I just had to share it.
It had me rolling on the floor, alternately, laughing and crying:

http://www.wimp.com/reservelosing/

I could only stare in disbelief. Just when you think you have seen everything....

We need to contact our legislators and demand that they support HR 1207 -- Ron Paul's Bill to audit the Fed.

Congressman Paul seems to be the only one that understands economics and the constitution.

Bill

[John]

-- CNBC Earnings Central - the clock stopped on May 8

This morning on CNBC I listened to someone ranting about what a great
economy we have because we've completely recovered from the problems
of just a few months ago, and because we're ready for a huge spurt of
growth in the next few months.

Meanwhile, if you turn to the CNBC Earnings Central web site, you
discover that the clock stopped on May 8, and the May 8 earnings stats
have been frozen in time:



http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839135/site/14081545/

John