Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
tim
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by tim »

I believe Trump's accommodation to Putin is because we are going to need Russia in our coming fight with China. John predicted Russia would be our ally against China, and at some point China is going to attempt to seize Russian land.

Iran is not in a generational crisis era, but an awakening era, and the younger generation that is going to inherit power in Iran is Pro-America and Pro-Western. Iran will be on the American side in WWIII. This was long ago predicted by John and its going to be interesting to see his prediction of Iran play out.

The Iran-Iraq War was the generational crisis war for Iran (where nerve gas was used on military and civilian targets), they are on a different timeline. Iran is where America was in the Vietnam War era.

Regarding the end of the ceasefire with Israel/Hamas, I am reminded of John's post from 2003:

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... .may01.htm
"Mideast Roadmap" - Will it bring peace?
Generational Dynamics predicts something quite different for the Mideast.

(01-May-03)Summary

The Mideast is currently replaying the Jewish / Palestinian wars of 1936 to 1949. Why? Because the generation of people who fought in those wars have been retiring or dying.

The new "Mideast Peace Roadmap" calls for a Palestinian state by 2005, side by side with Israel. It provides a series of steps for both sides to follow, mostly having to do with eliminating violence against both Palestinian and Israeli civilians. The plan was sponsored by the United States, Russia, the European Union, and the United Nations.

Unfortunately, the fault lines in the Mideast have never been resolved, and Generational Dynamics predicts that they can be resolved only by another crisis war. In fact, recent polling has shown the rise of a new "Young Guard" generation of militant Palestinians that will accept nothing less than the elimination of Israel.

The last crisis war in the Mideast occurred from 1936 to 1949. That war was indirectly caused by Nazi persecution of Jews in Europe. Because of Nazi persecution, European Jews flooded into Palestine in the 1930s. Hostilities between the Palestinians and the Jews began in 1936, and reached a climax in a major war in 1948-49 following the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The partitioning of Palestine has never been accepted by the Palestinians.

Throughout history, one can point to probably thousands of similar situations, where an artificial boundary is imposed between two peoples, and one or both sides oppose the boundary. Of those thousands of examples, you will probably find few or none that are resolved peacefully.

Generational Dynamics predicts that in such fault line situations, a new crisis war begins when the generation of kids that grew up during the last crisis war all retire or die, at approximately the same time. Growing up during a violent, bloody war turns them into risk-averse adults who guide society throughout their lifetimes, always looking for ways to compromise and contain problems. When they all retire or die, the society loses their collective wisdom, as the generation that grew up after the last crisis war takes charge of society. In the Mideast situation, this is happening today among both the Palestinians and the Israelis.

We are now in the early stages of replaying the extremely violent, bloody wars between the Jews and the Palestinians that took place between them from 1936 to 1949. So far the war has been little more than a series of skirmishes, as it was in the late 1930s. The full-fledged violent, bloody war is awaiting a generational change.

There's an incredible irony going on in the Mideast today, in that the leaders of two opposing sides are, respectively, Ariel Sharon and Yassir Arafat.

These two men hate each other, but they're the ones cooperating with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in charge.

The disappearance of these two men will be part of an overall generational change in the Mideast that will lead to a major conflagration within a few years. It's possible that the disappearance of Arafat alone will trigger a war, just as the election of Lincoln ignited the American Civil War. (It's currently American policy to get rid of Arafat. My response is this: Be careful what you wish for.)

Generational Dynamics predicts that a major new violent, bloody Mideast war must occur, sometime in the next ten years, depending upon when the generational change takes place. There are signs that the generational change is occurring now, and this means that the next bloody, violent Mideast crisis war will take place within 3 or 4 years. There is no "Mideast Peace Roadmap" that has any chance of stopping that.
Nailed it again, John.

Its a shame of the Cassandra Curse but your life's work will be vindicated.
“Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them: for I the LORD thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me; - Exodus 20:5
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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

spottybrowncow wrote: Wed Mar 12, 2025 7:27 pm I remember the movie well, especially when the guy on the horse was shot dead on his own land.
If you haven't read the novel "One Second After," there's no time like the present. You could probably finish it in a long day. It had me very depressed by the time I finished it, but it was well worth it.
There are a huge number of copycat EMP series on kindle for as low as $0.99 plus tax, or free with kindle unlimited.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

As They Cry Out “Peace And Safety”, All I See Is More War…
March 19, 2025
https://themostimportantnews.com/archiv ... s-more-war
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
Navigator
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

tim wrote: Tue Mar 18, 2025 2:41 pm I believe Trump's accommodation to Putin is because we are going to need Russia in our coming fight with China. John predicted Russia would be our ally against China, and at some point China is going to attempt to seize Russian land.
We could use all the help we can get in our upcoming fight against China, but I strongly disagree about getting help from Russia.

John originally thought this, but I never did. I don't believe that John thought this any more after the 2022 Ukraine invasion.

We can have different opinions on this, but mine is based on Russia currently desperately needing China, and China needing a second front option. Russia hates the US and Europe far more than the Chinese. Also, I do believe that Russia has probably worked out some kind of "post war" deal with China to return some (if not all) of Far Eastern Russian lands in return for help regaining territory in Europe (which is FAR more important to Russia than say Kamchatka).

Next topic

Regarding the Middle East, yes, it was due for a major blow up. Glad the Israelis reacted properly. They now all know (especially Israeli youth now) that EVERYONE in Gaza is a bloodthirsty enemy. Gaza can never be rebuilt without being a serious threat to Israeli security. The only viable option is to disperse them among the rest of the Arab world.

I saw a great video of a Gazan talking about the reality of Gaza over the past 70 years. Here is the link (she starts talking at the 15sec mark):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0ja85V7Ovw
spottybrowncow
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by spottybrowncow »

I work with a Russian who grew up in Ukraine who knows what the popular sentiment is over there. He says the average Russian feels like they have much more in common with the west than with the Chinese, whom they neither trust nor particularly like. Maybe it's a little like Iran, where the popular sentiment is fairly pro-western, but the anti-west faction has all the guns.
thinker
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by thinker »

Hey guys I've been super busy and finally had a chance to catch up. I didn't realize how I would feel after Johns' death, even though we never met or talked in real life I felt a real sense of loss after his passing. I hope he realized what a great work his life was and what a gift he gave us with Generational Dynamics. I don't think people in general appreciate what a great gift their lives are and what they do in their lives. May John live with our heavenly father.
thinker
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by thinker »

On Russia, I read somewhere that Trump and Putin Have a deal worked out for the US to buy a massive amount of aluminum from Russia at below market prices and that this aluminum is meant for building ships, my older brother also told me the other day that a company announced that they were investing at least 22 billion in the US to build ships. This looks to me like the Russia move to ally with the US has started. I don't get this idea that Russians hate Europeans and Americans, the once I have met seem to like Euros and Americans. Also the belief that Russia is controlled by China because of China's manufacturing to me doesn't make sense long term. China doesn't have natural resources but Russia is loaded with them. You can build manufacturing capacity but natural resources the raw materials and energy for that manufacturing you either have it or you don't. I remember reading the speech that one of China's top strategists gave to the politburo where he told them that Russia only turns away from the west when the west turns away from them but that as soon as the west turns towards Russia, Russia turns back towards the west and that because of this China needed to prepare for the time when Russia would turn away from China and ally itself with the west.
thinker
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by thinker »

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FullMoon
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

spottybrowncow wrote: Sat Mar 22, 2025 3:35 pm I work with a Russian who grew up in Ukraine who knows what the popular sentiment is over there. He says the average Russian feels like they have much more in common with the west than with the Chinese, whom they neither trust nor particularly like. Maybe it's a little like Iran, where the popular sentiment is fairly pro-western, but the anti-west faction has all the guns.
I've seen this many times online. But never the other way around. John always said that it's the sentiment of the mass of the people that determines the direction that they'll go. Perhaps the current Ukraine war somewhat changed this equation. But looking back, Russia has been a fringe Western state for many centuries but their experience with the Mongol yoke could perhaps still be influencing their perspective.
Navigator
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

The link here is to an EXCEPTIONAL video that explains the logic behind the Trump move to end the Ukraine war, and why it is already too late.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUHao-vA98g

The video is a study that details exactly why Russia and China are now welded at the hip, and how selling out Ukraine now, plus the other actions that Trump has promised Putin, would greatly weaken Europe.

Yes, Russia is greatly weakened now. But they will get bolstered by the Chinese when it hits the fan. Europe is not going to be a safe place to be for the coming China/US war.
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