Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Navigator wrote: Mon Apr 21, 2025 5:55 pm Instead, I do see them going for a much more aggressive approach, probably a surprise attack against USN targets and western Pacific US bases (Guam, Okinawa), once they decide to pull the trigger.

Navi,

That would really be an incredibly aggressive response. Do you really think they're that desperate? That would awaken the (hopefully still there, currently sleeping) U.S. war machine, while not damaging the homeland. Possibly the worst choice for the CCP. The only thing more aggressive would be nuking the U.S. homeland, which even the CCP knows would probably not work out in anyone's favor.

The CCP's only hope of successfully invading Taiwan is if they are able to neutralize the USN (and USAF) at the start. Also, they would need some dramatic wins at the beginning in order to capture/solidify popular support in China.

I think it is highly likely that they will use nukes at sea, and probably also against the US airbases in Guam and Okinawa. They would then swear that they are not hitting civilian targets, and would talk down nuclear exchange (which, right now, they are not ready for).

It is certainly questionable if they would be successful in taking Taiwan, but the war would most certainly devolve into a ground war (the true Chinese strength) on multiple, multiple fronts.

https://youtu.be/c-V7niGPY9s?si=fFawS42zkgSuDH5U

This China analyst thinks that Navigator's Island hopping strategy is the most likely scenario in the year half year. It's a good argument and she is very knowledgeable anddwells on Chinese politics quite deeply. She starts by saying that the question now regarding war is not if, but when.
We can see how fast things are ramping up and starting to feel like being out of control.
Time for preparing is ending and time for using what you have is very near. Both on an individual level and national. PRC will have to account for it's good and energy access. USA should be self sufficient. SHOULD BE. Hopefully this critical infrastructure is hardened to attack... They'll have to secure their supply lines, echoes to WW2...

As the India/Pakistan conflict is becoming heated again, due to the 26 tourists killed, I found this 1 year old video fairly informative as to the issues that Pakistan has been dealing with. They may be looking to enter a war against India as a way to distract their own population from their domestic and economic issues, just like China may.

Pakistan is dying (and that is a global problem) by CaspianReport
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xqm3kcHpIsI

Another one that's longer but gives a more geopolitical discussion.
Sushant Sareen Explains Pakistan's Real Truth - Military, Politics, Economy & Chaos by BeerBiceps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUs7JPf3rsg

Phong Tran wrote: Thu Apr 24, 2025 12:03 pm As the India/Pakistan conflict is becoming heated again, due to the 26 tourists killed, I found this 1 year old video fairly informative as to the issues that Pakistan has been dealing with. They may be looking to enter a war against India as a way to distract their own population from their domestic and economic issues, just like China may.

Pakistan is dying (and that is a global problem) by CaspianReport
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xqm3kcHpIsI

Another one that's longer but gives a more geopolitical discussion.
Sushant Sareen Explains Pakistan's Real Truth - Military, Politics, Economy & Chaos by BeerBiceps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUs7JPf3rsg

Here is Mike Snyder's take on this:
http://themostimportantnews.com/archive ... any-moment

Tensions soar as India weighs how to hit Pakistan
After the Kashmir attack, military action is possible but comes with huge risks
Photograph: AFP
Apr 27th 2025|Delhi and Islamabad
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/ ... t-pakistan

India Seems to Be Building Its Case for Striking Pakistan
As world powers face multiple crises, the one set off by a terror attack in Kashmir is getting scant attention or help in de-escalating between nuclear-armed neighbors
Mujib Mashal
By Mujib Mashal
Reporting from New Delhi
April 27, 2025
Updated 7:02 a.m. ET
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/27/worl ... shmir.html

https://rubino.substack.com/p/recession ... is-already

Let’s take the office building story step-by-step:

Between 2010 and 2020, millions of square feet of office space were financed with unnaturally cheap credit.

During the pandemic, millions of Americans discovered that they prefer working from home and refused to return to the office. Occupancy rates for many office buildings, as a result, are now so low that cash flow doesn’t cover expenses.

The post-pandemic inflation spike forced governments to raise interest rates just as loans on thousands of office buildings are coming up for refinancing. Combine lower cash flow with higher interest expense, and the result is plummeting valuations for many office buildings.

The Trump administration begins cutting the federal workforce, further emptying already underused offices. The result: a mountain of bad commercial real estate paper festering on bank balance sheets, threatening a banking crisis in the coming year.

Can An Economy Grow While Its Real Estate Tanks? Nope

Housing is a lead weight, while office space is a ticking time bomb. Neither is conducive to steady 3% non-inflationary growth. They might be the first dominoes to fall, as in 2008, or they might contribute to a crisis caused by geopolitics or an equities bear market. Either way, real estate is definitely part of the “imminent recession” story.

I would like to encourage all GD readers to to read this:

https://now.tufts.edu/2019/11/21/why-un ... superpower

It is somewhat dated (2019), but I think still highly relevant. In a time of increasing pessimism and doomsaying, it offered me an engagingly different perspective - maybe right, maybe wrong, but engaging, nonetheless. I look forward to others' feedback.

Spotty

spottybrowncow wrote: Fri May 02, 2025 8:31 pm I would like to encourage all GD readers to to read this:

https://now.tufts.edu/2019/11/21/why-un ... superpower

It is somewhat dated (2019), but I think still highly relevant. In a time of increasing pessimism and doomsaying, it offered me an engagingly different perspective - maybe right, maybe wrong, but engaging, nonetheless. I look forward to others' feedback.

Spotty

Yale historian Paul Kennedy conducted a famous study comparing great powers over the past five hundred years and concluded: “Nothing has ever existed like this disparity of power; nothing.” The United States is, quite simply, “the greatest superpower ever.”

People liked the fact that although John was gloomy about the terrible trials we're going to face, the USA will overcome and continue on afterwards. But even with our lopsided advantages in many ways, we're also dangerously weak in other critical areas. We're far too vulnerable in critical areas and most people have extremely limited ability to take care of their own basic living needs outside of the system that's known to be extremely vulnerable.
It's a time of rapid and radical change unseen in almost anyone's lifetime. It's easy now to be pessimistic and jump on the doomsaying bandwagon and we see the trend whereas before we were outliers.
But we have to hold out some hope and do our best, for those of us responsible for the lives of others it's important to both recognize the mortal danger we're all facing imminently but also hold out hope that we can make efforts to secure and protect them.
What happens on the society and global level we'll potentially never know... while we try to hold on living in what will be primitive conditions for an extended period of time. Better to get fully prepared now than wish you had done so when you're feeling like that clueless father in Obama's movie. That's my game plan. Good luck to everyone!

Yah. The greater the disaster, the greater the need for progressive change. We're getting a bunch of disaster. The rich elites having too much say in government? Too much prejudice?

Personally, I'd rather the current system had been preserved by a Kamala victory, but with Trump we are getting a true economic collapse and constitutional crisis. A real S&H crisis, missing only a crisis war thus far. Still, give him time...