Generational Dynamics World View News

[Navigator]

I certainly understand that many of the opinions I post are not in line with all of John's Generational Dynamic Theory. While John and I agreed on a LOT of things, I did not agree with a number of specifics. Most prominent amongst these was my being completely in DISagreement with John that Russian and Iran would be aligned with the US against China.

If you closely go back through the back and forth between John and I about this in the period 2018-2021 you can see the disagreement debated.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, John did change his tune. He believed that a Russia-China conflict was still on the table, but that it would probably have to wait until AFTER the China-US conflict would be resolved. I do believe that he understood as time went on post-Russia invasion of Ukraine, that Russia had become completely dependent on China, and would play along with Chinese desires until China dealt with the US.

I agreed that there was definitely tension in the China-Russia alliance, and I believe it is similar to the tension that existed between the Germans and Austro-Hungarians (AH) in WW1. By 1915, the AH empire was so crippled militarily that it became completely dependent on the Germans, even allowing them to take the lead in military operations in what they would have regarded as solely their sphere of influence (the Balkans; then even Italy - areas the Germans had no real interest in, but had to engage in due to AH military incompetence).

So, while I think that in general terms Generational Dynamics can help to understand what is going on, I am not a "full-on" believer. There are exceptions, where it doesn't necessarily hold up. WW1-WW2 time period is the case in point historically, the China-Russia-Iran-NKorea alliance is the current case in point.

[Navigator]

I am seeing some articles saying that they believe the Iranians may back down. I seriously doubt it.

The Iranians are led by Shia religious fanatics. They are FULLY committed to their interpretation of Islam. They believe, with full commitment, that Allah is backing them, and that they are incapable of losing. This belief is no different from fanatical Nazis or the Japanese in WW2 (whose beliefs were also tantamount to religious fanaticism). To them defeat was inconceivable. It is the same with the Iranian Mullahs.

Right now the Mullahs believe that their faith is merely being tested and that they will miraculously be victorious. For this reason I believe that they will pull out all the stops and even cross the line into attempting to block the Straights of Hormuz. This is not a rational course of action, but they probably believe that they are meant to engage even with the US.

There is a slight chance that the regular Iranian military may balk at this and stage some kind of coup (I think that's what the Israelis are hoping for), but the Mullahs have had decades to get rid of anyone in the Iranian military that they may even suspect of non-ferver regarding Shia Islam.

So I think this will get worse. Much worse.

[Navigator]

At the same time that the Israel-Iran conflict heats up, we are seeing a substantial escalation of civil unrest in the US.

As I mentioned before, the CCP is funding the Anti ICE demonstrations and the recent "No Kings Day" demonstrations. They will continue to ramp up this kind of activity as they try to plunge the US into civil chaos that may surpass what was seen during the Vietnam War.

Here is a good video of how China is funding anti-US government leftist groups who are behind much of the civil unrest (start at 7:08 point):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUNfEzn ... Uncensored

[Navigator]

This is a great video by a non-conservative economist on how China has screwed over the US (and everyone else involved in global trade) since it was granted entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) by Bill Clinton.

It explains why Trump's tarrifs are needed and how world trade is in dire need of drastic change. Note how he points out that Biden didn't change any of the policies put in place regarding China trade by Trump in his first term.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LJi6iF ... Maxinomics

[Navigator]

This is a great detailed video of how the Israelis infiltrated Iran and wreaked havoc on the Iranian leadership and, most importantly, air defense infrastructure.

Its by a former US infantryman who has become a great video explainer of current military affairs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_cwjNF ... =CappyArmy

[Trevor]

One thing I've been convinced of for some time is that the Soviet Union suffered a "First Turning Reset" after the Great Patriotic War, thanks to the massive devastation. Bad as the Western Front was, the Eastern Front was a whole different level of brutality. At least 25 million and possibly as many as 40 million Soviets were killed, the impact on its demographics evident to this day. So Russia's deep into its crisis period. The collapse of the USSR looks much more to me than an awakening era climax than a crisis-era resolution. John always disagreed with me on this, though.

There's been talk of a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities for 20 years, so why now? I saw a video I thought was interesting, mentioning that the Israeli strikes were during what was close to a full moon and ideally, you should strike during a new moon when there's little light. That Israel couldn't wait a couple weeks indicates to me their leadership decided that it was now or never, that Iran was close to a nuclear bomb or perhaps even have one. Whatever they say publicly, Iran's neighbors have been begging us for years to destroy their nuclear sites.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQnkTVf7qWM&t=610s

Since Israel began their operation, they've demonstrated what a proper air campaign looks like. I heard plenty of talk about how Iran now possessed the latest Russian weapons, that the upgrades they received would make even the F-35 vulnerable, that any campaign would endure massive losses. Instead, Israel gained air dominance in a matter of days.

[Trevor]

The dominoes are falling, but they're falling in reverse order than what I imagined would happen a few years ago. Israel no longer cares about world opinion, as I mentioned before. Even if we forbade this strike, I think they'd have done it anyway, terrified of Iran with a nuclear bomb.

Iran's population might be pro-western, but there's little they can do, so long as the Mullahs have the guns. At least so far, they've been willing to side with the hardliners. Blocking the Straits of Hormuz would be a desperate option, but I wouldn't put it past them. Such an act would also force us to get involved militarily.

Their nuclear program has to be destroyed now, because if they do get a bomb, there's no doubt in my mind they'll use it. Whether Trump likes it or not, I think he'll have to participate in the strikes, since we're the only ones with bunker busters big enough to take their operation out. Israel's damaged it, but not destroyed it. The Middle East is volatile at the best of times, let alone now.

Ukraine and Iran might not lead to a global conflict in themselves, but once China makes their move, the world will have to choose sides. As much as I can't stand Trump, I think he'll be better suited for a conflict than Harris.