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Sentiment Speaks: You Will Get Too Bullish In 2024
By Avi Gilburt
Dec 18, 2023 - 10:28 AM EST

As I said in my public article last week, I think a “reasonable” target for the rally into 2024 would be the 4883-5163SPX region. And as the market takes shape in the coming weeks, we can probably narrow that target down a bit.

But, I want to warn you not to get too comfortable in your bull suits. Once this rally completes, it will likely conclude not only the 5-wave structure off the October 2022 low, and not only complete the 5-wave structure off the 2020 low, but it will likely conclude a larger 5-wave structure off the March 2009 low, and even conclude a much larger 5-wave structure off the 1932 low. In other words, we are approaching what can be the conclusion of a major multi-decade bull market, just as most are going to turn quite bullish in 2024.

Moreover, if we are tracking this properly, then the initial turn down once we complete this structure could be quite powerful, and point us back down to the 3500-3900 region quite quickly. So, while we can likely enjoy more upside as we look towards the first quarter of 2024, this party may end while many believe it is just beginning. So, as we move north of 4800 SPX into 2024, you may want to consider tightening up your stops on your long positions.

Lastly, I have been providing a lot of public analysis regarding my view of how dangerous bank balance sheets are presenting. And, while the 2008 financial crisis was driven by one main factor, the next banking crisis actually has several factors which will potentially make it much worse than 2008.

So, while the market is now presenting us with a period of calm and relative safety, it would behoove many of you to be seriously considering which banks are holding your hard-earned money before what I am seeing of the future becomes publicly evident as a current reality, and the proverbial doodoo begins to hit the fan. By then, it may be too late to act.

We have outlined our view of the issues we see in the banking industry here for those of you that are interested. And, I strongly urge all of you to be “interested,” as you are the only ones who will be able to protect your hard-earned money.

Safer Banking Research Articles

“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.” - Ben Franklin

John wrote: Sun Dec 17, 2023 10:35 pm

aeden wrote: Sun Dec 17, 2023 10:24 pm https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1 ... 73x582.png possible to be baked in.
SDR issues will resurface. Check the M2 in the FDR no accidents in politics timeline. This was Bonhoeffer's reference when capital moved.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVdjP8XfU_0
Culture will eat strategy for breakfast.
Revenue cannot survive deflation.
Translation your going under the bus and Hit the wall like the reformed femnazi who realizes
deceived was a hell of a demonic drug.

Comparing 1970s inflation to today's invlation is laughable and ridiculous.

The average person has no interest in being a manager anymore.

My company recently ran a survey of 1,000 full-time employees across the U.S. who are not already in a managerial position. A meager 38% said they were interested in becoming a people manager at their current company. This problem crosses industries and borders. We're seeing clients in all lines of work struggling to fill frontline management positions.

It's becoming clear that companies have to adapt to fill these gaping voids, and the stakes couldn't be higher. Picture a Jenga tower — there are only so many blocks you can remove from the middle before the top comes crashing down.

Why management roles have grown less attractive

There was a time when the title manager meant prestige, respect, maybe even admiration — a chance to lead, a pathway to the top. But that dynamic has been shifting for decades and can now feel out-of-touch and out-of-date.

This management backlash has roots in several places. For one, trust in leadership has eroded sharply. Only 21% of workers strongly agree that they trust the leadership in their company, and the number has been on the decline since the pandemic.

At the same time, the "individual contributor" has enjoyed increasing status in many circles, especially in the tech community. A talented developer, for instance, can rise through the ranks of a company without managing people. Ultimately, their pay and perks may end up being comparable with senior people leaders, without ever having to wrestle with the challenges that go along with management.

Meanwhile, the pressures on managers are only growing. Familiar challenges with delivering results and bottom-line value have been augmented in recent decades with mounting HR responsibilities. For many, the stress and time commitment of management simply outweigh any added benefits.

Indeed, of all the insights gleaned from this survey, one stood out to me more than any other — people see managerial responsibilities as a non-starter for work-life balance. Among those we surveyed, 40% said their biggest worry with becoming a manager was increased stress, pressure and hours. When we asked people to identify their top ambition, 67% said spending more time with their friends and families and 64% said being more physically and mentally. The lowest priorities were becoming a C-suite executive (4%) and becoming a people manager (9%).

Posted 15 December 2023 - 02:07 PM

I have put out a market crash and terrorist alert for my BluStar Market Insight Subscribers for a top in the stock market on Dec 19, 2023 and terrorist/false flag alert beginning Dec 21, 2023 through January 2023.

Be careful travelling this Holiday Season. War tension due to increase overseas and with Allied Naval Vessels in the area of or near the Middle East.

Multiple terror attacks are being planned and likely to be carried out soon in the states.

Optimus Prime wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 12:18 am CPI lol

You could buy a house on a year's salary back then
and he talks about laughable
Old people really are a joke. You'd expect more from smart people.

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Dec 20, 2023 1:54 pm Unlike many who claim to have done so, Avi has had the big picture right for many years. Therefore, it's interesting to see his latest.

Sentiment Speaks: You Will Get Too Bullish In 2024
By Avi Gilburt
Dec 18, 2023 - 10:28 AM EST

As I said in my public article last week, I think a “reasonable” target for the rally into 2024 would be the 4883-5163SPX region. And as the market takes shape in the coming weeks, we can probably narrow that target down a bit.

But, I want to warn you not to get too comfortable in your bull suits. Once this rally completes, it will likely conclude not only the 5-wave structure off the October 2022 low, and not only complete the 5-wave structure off the 2020 low, but it will likely conclude a larger 5-wave structure off the March 2009 low, and even conclude a much larger 5-wave structure off the 1932 low. In other words, we are approaching what can be the conclusion of a major multi-decade bull market, just as most are going to turn quite bullish in 2024.

“I’m going to turn off the TV. I’m not going to watch the news, and I’m just going to enjoy Trump’s economy,” - a 2020 Biden voter who says he’ll vote for Trump next fall.