Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Wow! You have a good memory. I didn't remember that at all.

** CNBC's Jim Cramer announces that the market has hit bottom. (01-Aug-2008)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... m#e080801b

Some of your articles have made a huge impression on me, to the point that I can remember exact phrases years later. This one is an absolute classic with your statement "History always begins this morning" for these people when it was clearly evident the stock market was potentially facing an imminent crash.

[John]

> Wow! You have a good memory. I didn't remember that at all.

> ** CNBC's Jim Cramer announces that the market has hit bottom. (01-Aug-2008)
> ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... m#e080801b

> Some of your articles have made a huge impression on me, to the
> point that I can remember exact phrases years later. This one is
> an absolute classic with your statement "History always begins
> this morning" for these people when it was clearly evident the
> stock market was potentially facing an imminent crash.

Well, thank you very much for saying that. It always amazes me that
there are a small group of particularly brilliant, intelligent people
who like my articles, while the vast majority of people hate the
articles, and also hate me.

[aeden]

I just got an email from someone who runs a stock market advisory service (makes recommendations to clients on whether to buy or short the stock market). The email said he is long now, but wanted to know if the market crashes when it would make a low.

I think everyone can draw the appropriate conclusions.

book 4 reopened H

the short one

[Higgenbotham]

[jcsok]

HIg - You have a major obstacle - Zerohedge just posted that Gartman has made a watershed announcement that stocks have made a multiyear top. Better cover.

[Higgenbotham]

I will be staying short (my position is double what I took at the top on January 29) and shutting down short term trading again.

The way I look at Gartman is he is potentially the first swallow to show up at San Juan Capistrano (Winter bird migration) and he is 47 days after the fact. Winter is coming. There will be a Fourth Turning (or worse).

I don't know if the top of the market is in (nobody does) but, based on what I'm looking at, it will very likely be this year (my recent post on birth rates is a big factor in my longer term analysis). I'd give it about 60/40 the top is in. There is a broken parabolic move. A broken parabolic move has never recovered its high. On the other hand, this is the biggest bubble in the history of the world, so it's very possible it may do something that has never happened before. It already has.

[Higgenbotham]

A Good Place for Cliff Swallows

The Swallow celebration began centuries ago when Mission padres observed that the birds returned each year on or about St. Joseph's Day on the church calendar, March 19. Thousands of orange-tailed migrants fly in to reclaim their old nests in the ancient arches and walls of the Mission, and to raise their young in the valley. The swallows of San Juan Capistrano made the Mission and the city world famous.

The Capistrano birds are Cliff Swallows, which have probably been returning to the area for centuries.

Singing to the cliff swallows hasn’t worked yet, but maybe building them new homes may finally bring them back for good to Mission San Juan Capistrano.

Efforts to lure the migratory birds, which haven’t nested there for more than two decades, were unveiled Saturday as part of the St. Joseph’s Day & Return of the Swallows Celebration.

Mission officials erected a 15-by-15-foot temporary wall on the east side of the ruins of the Great Stone Church with about 30 nests made from dental plaster underneath an archway. The nests, which are about the size of a child’s basketball, could fit two adult birds and a few hatchlings.

“These birds reuse old nests and they’ll use plaster nests,” said Dr. Charles Brown, an ornithologist and professor at the University of Tulsa, who is helping the mission to lure them back. “The hope is they come back, see this, start using these and then they’ll spill over into the natural walls.”

Several years ago, Brown experimented with broadcasting the sound of swallows singing to lure them back, which has attracted some birds, but they haven’t built nests.

Cliff swallows were once common sights perched and nesting on various walls and structures of the mission.

The swallows will be back on March 19 of this year and so will the Fourth Turning is my prediction.

https://www.ocregister.com/2016/03/24/m ... -swallows/

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default ... k=oLf4fIam

The btfd will remember what dcf means soon enough in balance sheets H.
They are convinced the confirmation bias was enough to deflect reality.
My point as we know here is simply that past balance sheet reflect the direction they wanted to be in.
Even the decent analyst are finally confirming they screwed up on net value to some important drivers.
But that is what data does even as fragile as it is.
What this means to me is, as before the market produces four percent more now than it did in overproduction then when
toxic assets infected the sweep accounts and the short time paper to funding. Last times we discussed this we where
under ten percent off the total aggregate in nominal values then we sorta noted it rather close as others also.

The curve will allow some nominal value capital to be available to sort out what we already trend on productive assets
and the forth book to cover the obvious transitional roles we see. To be brief and simply, how much more can the democrats
descend is the obvious trade. A few small upticks are seen as they distance themselves from the body farm.

So far that's not been a great trade, Larry...
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default ... k=e1dQ1P_0
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it."

In 1970, while he was still a Democrat, Kudlow joined Joseph Duffey's "New Politics" senatorial campaign in Connecticut. Duffey was a leading anti-war politician during the Vietnam war era. Kudlow, working with Yale University student Bill Clinton

[Higgenbotham]

I have low speed Internet with Spectrum. It costs about $15.95 per month.

I haven't had cable TV in at least 10 years because I refuse to pay the rate. Not that I can't, but I won't.

Spectrum, of course, calls about once per week to try to sell their $90 bundle.

But yesterday was a different story. Spectrum called yesterday to offer streaming TV for about $21 per month. That includes 5 local channels, plus any additional 10 channels you can pick. So I picked ESPN, ESPN1, CNBC, CNN, History, etc. I told the sales woman, now they are offering something I can buy. Then I asked her how it is selling. She said great. I asked her if a lot of Millennials are buying it. She said lots and lots. She said a lot of Millennials and other folks, having heard about this, have stopped paying their other cable bill.

[Higgenbotham]

I predict AT&T will go bankrupt during the coming resumption of the Fourth Turning (as will General Electric).

Today AT&T called to sell additional services. I have a land line with absolutely nothing on it that costs $49 per month.

I told the sales rep that I have a cell phone with Sprint that offers unlimited internet, unlimited phone and many other features for approximately the cost of the land line. I asked him what AT&T is going to do to lower my bill. They must get that question a lot because he gave me a number to call.

I called the number and the customer service rep, who was a very nice guy, told me AT&T has a policy to do nothing for their land line customers except to continue raising their rates. So I told him that as valuable as a land line might be, for example during a power outage or nuclear war, that I would likely be canceling it and going to Magic Jack. He was right on point in his response, saying he also believes a major collapse is coming and the whole country will likely be stuck without reliable phone service at some point and worse off than if nobody had gone to internet phone to begin with.