Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

It is a a construct for identity politics. Not a crash H.

Political opinions aren't worth much as far as predicting the stock market goes, but it's my personal opinion that Trump's getting tough on Chinese IP theft is long overdue (like about 2 decades overdue). I posted a few years back that the SF FBI office devotes all of their resources to Chinese IP theft. That needs to change. It's my personal opinion that the Trump tariffs are the best solution to this problem and are fabulous for American business and the stock market. I think the stock market has had an uncalled for mini panic over this.

[Higgenbotham]

> If this is a crash, it is the slowest moving crash I am aware of.

Take a look at my Dow Jones historical page.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... i.djia.htm

And take a look at what happened starting September 3, 1929,
which was the market peak.

The market began a gradual decline that lasted four years. What
people refer to as a "crash" was actually a panic that occurred six
weeks later and lasted around a week, followed by a recovery.

About six weeks after the peak, the market had gradually fallen 16%,
but no one was concerned. In fact, pundits said that it was time to
buy. Everyone believed that the economy and the market were
"fundamentally sound" (that phrase is a sure sign of trouble), and so
few suspected that anything was wrong.

If we're finally entering a crash, then this is exactly the way that I
would be expecting it to proceed.

56 calendar days after all time high

1929 down 50%
1987 down 50%
2018 down 10%

Many more stats I could post. This crash, if that's what it is, is moving slower than: Bitcoin, 1989 Nikkei, Holland Tulips, South Sea Bubble, 1929, 1930, 1987. Name your favorite crash and the stats you want, and I'll post them.

That's not to say I don't think it can crash and I would not be in defensive mode.

It is to say I will not be short here.

[Higgenbotham]

The bottom very well could be today. Why would I say that? Because the 1987 crash bottomed on calendar day 55 after the all time high and the 1929 crash on day 56. Today is day 56.

Damn good point H.

WD Gann, arguably, the best stock market trader of all time, noted in his writings what has become known as the "Gann Death Window" which is 49-55 calendar days after a high. The Gann Death Window is the time that markets are most vulnerable to panic. And panic this week they did, but not very much.

[CH86]

> If this is a crash, it is the slowest moving crash I am aware of.

Take a look at my Dow Jones historical page.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... i.djia.htm

And take a look at what happened starting September 3, 1929,
which was the market peak.

The market began a gradual decline that lasted four years. What
people refer to as a "crash" was actually a panic that occurred six
weeks later and lasted around a week, followed by a recovery.

About six weeks after the peak, the market had gradually fallen 16%,
but no one was concerned. In fact, pundits said that it was time to
buy. Everyone believed that the economy and the market were
"fundamentally sound" (that phrase is a sure sign of trouble), and so
few suspected that anything was wrong.

If we're finally entering a crash, then this is exactly the way that I
would be expecting it to proceed.

56 calendar days after all time high

1929 down 50%
1987 down 50%
2018 down 10%

Many more stats I could post. This crash, if that's what it is, is moving slower than: Bitcoin, 1989 Nikkei, Holland Tulips, South Sea Bubble, 1929, 1930, 1987. Name your favorite crash and the stats you want, and I'll post them.

That's not to say I don't think it can crash and I would not be in defensive mode.

It is to say I will not be short here.

Boomer Tyranny is manipulating the markets and actively preventing a real crash or even a correction from taking place. Boomers would rather allow the entire world to burn at the discretion of the centralized power centers than to allow their kids to have political and economic freedom in a post-crash system.

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.minyanville.com/cooper/articles/index/a/1548

[John]

A couple of extra weeks would be within the margin of error.

[Higgenbotham]

Boomer Tyranny is manipulating the markets and actively preventing a real crash or even a correction from taking place. Boomers would rather allow the entire world to burn at the discretion of the centralized power centers than to allow their kids to have political and economic freedom in a post-crash system.

I have my reasons for thinking the recent "correction" that occurred in late January and early February was fabricated and manipulated to allow the market to "correct" but to prevent a real free market crash from occurring. Basically, the timing was off from what has normally occurred historically for hundreds of years of panics. It's a well established whisper in the trading community that the Fed employs traders (some of which are Gann experts) to bollix things up. We know they can't be successful forever but I for one never believed they would get through the "hard down" demographic and solar cycles, but they did. That's why I believe the crash, when it does occur, has to be absolutely massive and the fastest moving crash in history.

[John]

Even assuming you're right that the Fed hires gnomes to bollix things
up (which I extremely strongly doubt), a panic could occur elsewhere
in the world and spread to the US. Or it could be triggered by a war.

[Higgenbotham]

Even assuming you're right that the Fed hires gnomes to bollix things
up (which I extremely strongly doubt), a panic could occur elsewhere
in the world and spread to the US. Or it could be triggered by a war.

The rest of the world has been doing what you describe above for years, but the US markets are totally immune to it. A lot of times you'll see the US market follow Europe overnight, then be miraculously cured by 10 am New York time.

Mark D Cook, considered to be the world's best real time independent S&P trader, notes Fed manipulation every week and exactly where it occurs. I have noted it somewhat, but am not sharp enough to go into the exact detail that he does.

[Higgenbotham]

If I didn't believe the Fed was screwing with these markets and believed they were free and was trading as if they should be following demographic, generational, K Wave, etc., cycles , I'd be broke and probably dead.