Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Exiled Chinese Billionaire's Accusations of China (w/ Guo Wengui & Kyle Bass)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cwXifDaCjE

** 30-Aug-2019 World View: CCP vs Hong Kong protesters on Saturday

According to a Hong Kong correspondent (Jonathan Hunt) on Fox News:

Pro-democracy protesters had planned a large public protest on
Saturday evening (Saturday morning ET), possibly as large as the
protest last month with two million protesters, 25% of the population.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing did the following:
- Arrested some protest leaders
- Declared that Saturday's protest is illegal
- Moved a large number of troops into Shenzhen on Hong Kong's border
- Told people to stay at home on Saturday evening

The organizers of the pro-democracy protests called off Saturday's
protests, saying that they couldn't guarantee the safety of the
demonstrators

However, this correspondent says that he has just interviewed some of
the extremists ("in an undisclosed location") and they're saying the
following:
- The peaceful protesters will stay at home
- The CCP's actions have energized the extremist protesters
- Extremist protesters will be out on Saturday evening, with
confrontational protests and probably violence

The question always is: How long will the CCP allow this to go on.
There's effectively a hard deadline of October 1, the 70th anniversary
of the founding of Communist China, and it's believed that the
protests must be "settled or crushed" by October 1.

You can always count on the CCP to do the stupidest, most incompetent,
and most self-destructive thing, so the logic of the situation
requires a Tiananmen Square type intervention within the next month,
in time for Hong Kong to be out of the news by October 1. That
suggests that the deadline for action is pretty much now.

Gold bug wrote:So would negative interest rates make gold a good investment now?

Yes, I'm still here.

Not necessarily. It depends. If you’re an Institutional investor, multi-national corporation, or Large Bank that needs to hold Euro zone debt for currency risk or legal reasons then hedging with Gold is beneficial. Gold ETFs have seen a big inflow from retail investors and is up pretty big from where it was earlier in the year. The problem with actually owning physical gold is the owner rarely gets the spot price of gold and the limited number of vendors who can handle the transaction means that there is a large processing fee that takes away much if not all of the profit. The yield on US Treasuries is still higher than the dividend yield of the handful of Gold funds/ETFs that pay a dividend. You could buy gold futures contracts, but then you’d either need to sell the contracts to make a profit or be able to take possession of the Gold delivery and generate your own contracts to resell it.

Generally you can find better returns from blue chip companies paying 4-6% dividends or even some US muni bonds. If you’re in a growth phase or are worried about your equity positions dropping, hedging with Gold or VIX options can help.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-GOLD/

** 30-Aug-2019 World View: Hong Kong riot troops

Another analyst has clarified something that I apparently misstated.

I said that the CCP were sending more troops into Shenzhen. That's
not what's going on.

According to this analyst, the CCP has rotated out the troops
that have been occupying barracks in Hong Kong for years, and
is now replacing them with riot troops and riot vehicles.

** 30-Aug-2019 World View: Millennials vs Gen-X

Finance guy wrote: > John, I really appreciate your analysis and perspective. I’ve been
> a reader of your site for quite a while and bought a couple copies
> of your books. I personally don’t understand all of the vitriol
> that gets directed at you, but wanted to tell you to keep up the
> good work.

> I also wanted to get your feedback on something I’ve been noticing
> the last couple of years regarding Boomer v Gen X relations and
> how millennials are fitting into the picture. I’m a millennial
> (an older one, born 1981) and was military for 13 years before
> getting into the finance industry. It seems to me that the Gen X
> fund managers and finance guys snuck a lot of synthetic
> derivatives by the boomers and wrote some bad trading algorithms
> that the boomers didn’t understand (and still usually don’t). The
> solution I’ve seen the boomers go with is to bring in a millennial
> to team with because they seem to better understand the technical
> algorithms and derivatives market while generally being more
> “service” and “societal” oriented and matching up philosophically
> more with the boomers then they do with Gen-X or how Gen-X does
> with the millennials. I’ve even seen this in succession planning
> where boomers are skipping Gen-Xers to leave their practices and
> funds to millennials instead.

> Didn’t know if this jived with Generational Theory Or was a one
> off for the finance industry.

I've seen something similar in the computer industry.

I get calls from recruiters fairly frequently, because my resume is
available online. I got two calls from recruiters last week. In both
cases, they told me that that they've seen my resume, and I'm a
perfect for a job they want to fill. So I say, "Well, I'm an older
person, and no is hiring anyone over age 40 or 50, so it's a waste of
time." They say, "Oh, OK, goodbye."

I used to say "over age 60," and I often got an argument saying that
age doesn't matter. But this has been changing, and now it's reached
the point where I don't even get an argument when I say "over age 40
or 50." I interpret this as the latest iteration of a change that's
been going on for ten years, as the age discrimination has gotten
worse and worse.

Speaking personally, it's almost kind of funny how pathetically
hopeless everything is. I've tried all sorts of things to generate
income, and all I do is humiliate myself. It is truly hopeless.

However, relating this situation to what you're saying: Companies
no longer want to hire Gen-Xers any more. Instead, they're only
hiring millennials, and anecdotally you have be age 30 or lower
to get a job in the computer industry.

I've seen many examples of how incredibly nasty Gen-Xers are.
For example, as you point out, they caused the financial crisis
by flooding the market with fraudulent synthetic subprime-backed
securities that Boomers didn't even understand.

So Gen-Xers are incredibly nasty, which is bad news for people like
me. But Gen-Xers are also incredibly nasty to each other, and make
each other's lives miserable. One solution to this is the one you
suggest -- stop hiring Gen-Xers, and just hire millennials. That's
certainly the direction the computer industry has been going on for
the last few years.

31-Aug-19 World View -- Russia declares farcical 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm Turkey border post


Mainland China troops poised to crush Hong Kong protesters


** 31-Aug-19 World View -- Russia declares farcical 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm Turkey border post
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190831

Contents:
Idlib Syria civilians push into Turkey
Russia declares a farcical ceasefire
Israel bombs Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in one weekend
Mainland China troops poised to crush Hong Kong protesters


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib,
Turkey, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Iran, Hezbollah, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Shia Crescent, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel, Qassem Soleimani,
China, Hong Kong, Chinese Communist Party, CCP

How much longer is Turkey going to keep playing along with the Russians? The Russian air defense missile system has derailed their relationship with Turkey, and despite your predictions, the Turks are becoming highly anti-Chinese. The Turks may find themselves alone.

** 31-Aug-2019 Russia Turkey

Guest wrote: > How much longer is Turkey going to keep playing along with the
> Russians? The Russian air defense missile system has derailed
> their relationship with Turkey, and despite your predictions, the
> Turks are becoming highly anti-Chinese. The Turks may find
> themselves alone.

How has the Russian air defense missile system derailed
Russia's relationship with Turkey?

John wrote:** 31-Aug-2019 Russia Turkey

Guest wrote: > How much longer is Turkey going to keep playing along with the
> Russians? The Russian air defense missile system has derailed
> their relationship with Turkey, and despite your predictions, the
> Turks are becoming highly anti-Chinese. The Turks may find
> themselves alone.

How has the Russian air defense missile system derailed
Russia's relationship with Turkey?

Typo. I meant derailed the relationship the NATO.