Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Treasury rates are rising.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... data=yield

Atilla's performance. I'm pretty sure this is real based on seeing his real time trading posts years ago.

http://xtrends.org/?page_id=35

Carl Futia's performance.

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2009/03/b ... ecord.html

I thought it would be helpful to post the month by month performance summary of all the e-mini trades I have posted on this blog. Every trade was posted at the time I made it. You can find them all in the blog archives.

After September 7, 2010 all trades have been posted real time in my trading seminar, CarlFutiaRealTime.

One more thing. These results are NET of commission - in other words commissions are first subtracted from profits or added to losses before the point totals are calculated.

You have reached the home page of my real time trading seminar. I am Carl Futia. I'd like to offer you the unique opportunity to develop your trading skills by looking over my shoulder as I trade the e-mini S&P 500 futures - while you sit at your own computer! No multi-thousand dollar seminar fees, no travel expenses, no travel time, no hotel room!Just a modest, monthly charge for seminar participation.

I've corresponded with Carl a couple times, but have not taken his seminar. He's a very nice man. His trading style and market outlook is too dissimilar to mine.

All 3 of these traders are phenomenal in their own way. And I still can't think of any others. It's interesting to think that I don't follow them. But I do respect all 3 of them a lot.

Higgenbotham wrote: > Here's a simple one.

> An engineer who is the proprietor of a small engineering firm
> modeled a water distribution system. Nowadays, most such engineers
> are good at inputting into the model but they've forgotten what
> went into the model to begin with. So while it's easier to build
> a model (similar to what you described), you have to know both how
> hand calculations were done pre-model and how to do a variety of
> computer models. For water, the models use the Hazen-Williams
> equation, which assumes turbulent flow.

> Since this was a rural system with some long runs of pipe, I spot
> checked some Reynolds numbers and it turned out the flow was
> laminar for miles near the end of the system. So the model could
> be used up to the point where the flow transitioned to laminar,
> then the rest had to be hand calculated.

> Having read your post, I would say in the situation I'm describing
> most engineers would just use the computer model and do it
> incorrectly and that would in fact be easier and require less
> knowledge.

I guess what you're saying is right, but it's so counter-intuitive
that it must be the wrong way of looking at it.

What you're saying is that no new technology could ever make
life simpler, since everyone would be required to understand
both the new technology and the old technology.

Thus, the guy who invented fire and used it to heat his cave made
things more difficult and complex, because you couldn't always count
on having the fuel to start a fire, so you'd have to be equally
proficient at older ways to stay warm.

But at the very least, there's a statute of limitations on such
arguments. For example, when I was growing up, I remember old people
saying very seriously that it's a shame that young people were getting
used to using watches, since they were no longer developing the skills
to read a sundial.

You could argue that in the coming dystopia it would be better to know
how to read a sundial, but until that happens, technology makes life
less complex, not more complex, and I don't need to know how to read a
sundial. (Though in fact I do know how, or at least did once upon a
time.)

There's a particular issue with the examples you've given. If an
engineer is using a software application to model a water distribution
system, and if the engineer makes a mistake because the software used
the Hazen-Williams equation without forcing the engineer to input
variables that indicate whether the flow is turbulent or laminar, then
I would blame that on the software, not on the engineer. You could
then get into a discussion of why the Gen-X software engineer who
wrote the software did such a sloppy job, but the blame would go to
the software engineer, not to the water engineer.

I deleted 8 or so examples that have to do with other aspects of why some engineering jobs have gotten more complex. But I think it's useful to leave one example up.

A lot of engineering projects done today involve modifications to existing physical systems. For example, widening an existing freeway where there are existing utilities nearby is harder than putting in a new road. I was involved in another project where a company wanted to use an existing galvanized piping system that was certified in Europe, and that got more complicated than designing a new piping system.

My guess is that the engineer who developed that model wanted to be as conservative as possible. Overall, I think that's OK.

aeden wrote:That window.....

It's beginning to look good. I may go for it. Will stop all short term stuff now and refocus on the big picture.

Closed dno on contango. They want $80.00 and the point is the consumer will be destroyed here. They know that since this is economics of the of the silent weapons of the silent war.

There have been only two Section 232 investigations since the U.S. joined the WTO in 1995 on crude oil in 1999 and iron and steel in 2001. 
Minority Whip Newt Gingrich (Ga.), usually a confrontational leader, rallied House Republicans to support NAFTA.
"This is a vote for history, larger than politics, larger than reelection, larger than personal ego," said Gingrich,
who is to be his party's House leader in 1995.

GATT was signed by 23 nations in Geneva on October 30, 1947, and took effect on January 1, 1948. It remained in effect until the signature by 123 nations in Marrakesh on April 14, 1994, of the Uruguay Round Agreements, which established the World Trade Organization (WTO)
on January 1, 1995.

thread:

As we know the imbalance is a design sanctioned feature.

quoted in Money Creators (1935) by Gertrude Coogan, p. 329
"Debt, particularly international debt, is the first and over-mastering grip. Through it men in high places are suborned, and alien powers and influences are introduced into the body politic. When the debt grip has been firmly established, control of every form of publicity
and political activity soon follows, together with a full grip on industrialists."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2G6mTX07I1M as warned http://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?ke ... sf=msgonly
http://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?ke ... %5B0%5D=14

Tried to evade U.S. tariffs by routing aluminum through Mexico to disguise its origins, a tactic known as transshipping
evading trade restrictions and claiming North American Free Trade Agreement benefits

Mr. Liu’s wife became a board member of one of his companies, Scuderia Development, corporate records show.
China Inc taking over so read the doc at the 7:30 mark as it explains China's Legal Right to Force you off your Land.

This we noted clearly in the Forums on the signal that we confirmed. This will mirror back as supply chain realities. As I mentioned when the river lowers the turbulence is seen and modified to flow efficiencies to supply. Sticky wages was operation 936 and packaged as Nafta for the true believers. Sometimes more alike than we wish to convey since the groups must endure the missing value stream.

The point remains as the wasting we covered on our regional decimation.

Unit 78020. No government was spared in the attacks that involved cyber strikes against computer networks in Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. It's unclear whether this latest campaign will be discussed. Our direct action was surmised in 1996 and countered before lba and firmware renditions.
The information warfare campaign focused on all the governments of Southeast Asia, including the headquarters of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations and private and public energy organizations. The operation included data theft, to gain valuable commercial information.

The moral nihilist straw man will suffer the exculpatory adjectives for now.

It defies logic how far removed the Senate is to what is going on but they are smart and half are cargo cult cut outs as we know parting out the unborn and human traffickers for NGO graft.

The current Office manager as we warned before 1990 is against issues and a compliant public on the wrong side of the curve.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?ke ... sf=msgonly

John wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote: > Let's say an engineer was hired by Microsoft in the 1990s to
> manage a team working on Windows 3.1 versus being hired today by
> Microsoft to manage a team working on the latest version of
> Windows. How would those situations compare? Or, really, any
> similar situations in your industry (software) that you are
> familiar with.

> One thing that comes to mind that you discussed was the Obamacare
> software debacle. Versus 30 years ago, mismanagement and
> incompetence have become more of a problem, which makes the job
> more complex and makes it harder for even smart people to be
> effective.

> I'll post specific examples when I get a chance.

If you're going to say that a job with a Silent manager is less
complex than a job with a Gen-X manager, because the Silent
manager is a lot more competent, then I guess I'd have to agree
with that.

However, the core technical complexity has got to be reduced today,
simply because computer software takes most of the complexity away in
most jobs.

With regard to managing a software project, there are many tools today
-- sophisticated compilers and debuggers, bug tracking software,
scheduling software -- that weren't available in the 1990s.

With regard to health care, my doctor had a whole room filled with
hundreds of file folders containing the health records of his
patients. Today, there are no more file folders. The data is readily
available online.

With regard to the Obamacare software debacle I'd go further and state that the debacle wasn't the result of incompetency and mismanagement; it was planned from day 1 as a way to maximize money. Creating the debacle allowed those involved to milk the system for more and more $$. It wasn't incompetence and mismanagement - it was greed.

As John conveys if Boomers made a mistake, it's because we didn't realize in time how evil you and the crooks in your generation were.

A vast percent never fathomed the simple blueprint of what is, and could be.
Other than marxist the neocons are just another insult to the constitutional republic.
A friend in need is a pain in the ass while twenty five percent of the dead are women and children.
Our maker is not mocked.

Arms deal that was as nash construct.
w is spot on to the fourth step.
No it won't , but those terms were laid down 3+ years ago by China and Russia, not Trump.
They only went along with the UN sanctions to stop Kim having any second thoughts.
Bolton and the neocohens torpedoed the chance of a deal. AGAIN.
Now Russia and China will just ignore the sanctions, bet on it.

Yes that is the proverbial cui bono.
The taxpayer is not amused as the allegory of the cave keep the vacuous chained and entertained.

Plus Bolton the support player as in just such a emergency break glass.
No reason for him to stay on now he has served his "the fiat" masters well.

Bolton’s connections with past and present events are clearly around two men; hawks Douglas Feith and Dick Cheney.
Membership in the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA).
But we all knew that.
The Office had to insulate. Day one Stalking Horse. I simply missed an s, as in Horses, but another mentioned four.

Fire Bolton restart the deal.