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Higgenbotham wrote:Cliff Notes version of the last 20 years in the stock market and possible critical juncture now. I agree with all of it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cHhNI3PSw4

They anticipate two years given the macro indicators.
The hard edges have caused much damage.
I will hold my view for now.
We already know policy mistakes will be castigated.

Higgenbotham wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote:

Here's the 3 weeks since this was posted May 15.



Quite a bit of similarity between the two time periods.

The 3 days after June 5. These will be my last day trades from the long side probably ever.

aeden wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote:Cliff Notes version of the last 20 years in the stock market and possible critical juncture now. I agree with all of it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cHhNI3PSw4

They anticipate two years given the macro indicators.

This is a difficult read because it is unprecedented. I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the short side for now. Then stay sidelined if it doesn't materialize until the next possible top.

Vigorish phase since the true believers consider it will blow past the current top on the political rhetoric.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06- ... hedge-fund

During that time, many will be tempted to look for him in all the wrong places (Luke 17:23).
But those false leads must be avoided.
For when he returns, it will be as obvious as the lighting flashing out across the sky (Luke 17:24).
Then, when he returns, it will be just like in the time of Noah (Luke 17:26).
People were “eating, they were drinking,” with life going on as usual, right up until the last moment (Luke 17:27).
Then suddenly, the Flood came and destroyed them all.

The rest https://simplywall.st/user/portfolio/create

The structural issues and the aca litc model bailout has ground them to dust as we knew anyways.
https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2 ... ent-000670

The wasting was no accident.

As noted they will covet and have to the point from indoctrination's they are captivated.

aeden wrote:Vigorish phase since the true believers consider it will blow past the current top on the political rhetoric.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06- ... hedge-fund

There's that, and also this:

Striking UPS Workers Will Disrupt Business Nationwide With Largest US Walkout In Decades (important when juxtaposed against Hussman's June letter)
Italy Hit By Biggest Depositor Run Since 2012
"Its' Crazy": Texas Roiled By Unprecedented Labor Shortage As Shale Industry Hires "Just About Anyone"

Whereas it was inferred that Bridgewater believes there is a 2 in 3 chance they are correctly short, based on what I am seeing, I believe the odds the high is in to be 1 in 3. And I think those are damn good odds to take because the downside is enormous and the most likely upside in my view, even if the high is taken out, will leave me positive on the year at the peak (i.e. S&P 3050 or lower). However, as implied in my recent post, there is a time to defer to the big dogs and trust their thought process more than mine. This is what they are good at.

In January, I relied on my own assessment and went short against all of the prevailing sentiment. Generally, it is not considered good practice to short a new all time high. And I stated the reasons why at the time. What I think the big dogs are good at is aligning their view to confirmation from the market that a major trend change is likely in the recent rear view mirror.

Another thought I've had - this was a few months back when many were looking at the 1929 crash pattern and counting out days.

Taking it to it's simplest, forgetting about everything except the length of the generational bubble, it's often stated that the 1920s bubble went up from 1921 to 1929, or approximately 8 years. For the sake of simplicity, let's say this bubble went up from 1994 to 2018, or approximately 24 years, or approximately 3 times as long.

The 1929 topping pattern started from the September 3 high and reached a secondary high on October 11 before crashing, or 38 calendar days.

If this bubble lasted 3 times as long as the 1920s bubble, why were people thinking the topping pattern might be the same amount of time as the 1920s topping pattern - why not 3 times as long? 3 times 38 is 114 days. Adding 114 days to January 26 forecasts a secondary high on May 20. Based on that, it seems reasonable to be looking for a secondary high somewhere in this area.

Higgenbotham wrote: > Another thought I've had - this was a few months back when many
> were looking at the 1929 crash pattern and counting out days.

> Taking it to it's simplest, forgetting about everything except the
> length of the generational bubble, it's often stated that the
> 1920s bubble went up from 1921 to 1929, or approximately 8
> years. For the sake of simplicity, let's say this bubble went up
> from 1994 to 2018, or approximately 24 years, or approximately 3
> times as long.

> The 1929 topping pattern started from the September 3 high and
> reached a secondary high on October 11 before crashing, or 38
> calendar days.

> If this bubble lasted 3 times as long as the 1920s bubble, why
> were people thinking the topping pattern might be the same amount
> of time as the 1920s topping pattern - why not 3 times as long? 3
> times 38 is 114 days. Adding 114 days to January 26 forecasts a
> secondary high on May 20. Based on that, it seems reasonable to
> be looking for a secondary high somewhere in this area.

There was also a major stock market crisis in 1914 that would have to
be factored in. You know, I would say that you're crazy, except for
the fact that you're making money and I'm not, which means that you're
the one that's sane and I'm the one that's crazy. Well, that would be
no surprise to anyone.