Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

John wrote: Today, computers are powerful enough today for neural networks to be
trained on infinitely more data than Warren Buffett could learn from
in his entire lifetime. Not only that, it can learn on its own by
scanning the internet.

If humans are still better at some things today, that list of things
will be reduced with time.

By 2030, multiply that power by more tens of thousands, and humans
don't stand a chance. I won't be alive to see it, but maybe you will.
Enjoy!

Higgenbotham wrote: > Buffett has real time sales and other data coming in from the over
> 200 companies he owns and has private access to. Nobody in the
> world has access to this much valuable real time data.

> Scanning the internet is for blokes like me. Despite the fact that
> my data processing capability is orders of magnitude less than
> today's computers, they still can't beat me at trading in a rigged
> game where the exchanges have given them massive advantages. If by
> 2030, computers have the equivalent of a hammer that is 10,000
> times more powerful when what they really need is a screwdriver,
> they will still be losing.

> The tools computers have are great for playing self-contained
> rules-based games like chess that have a finite number of
> possibilities. Humans suck at those kinds of tasks.

> By getting computers involved in tasks that they have no business
> being involved in and for which their involvement actually confers
> massive disadvantages which are disruptive to the functioning of
> free markets, supply chains are going to collapse and the world is
> going to go into a dark age. This is as certain to me as the sun
> will rise in the east tomorrow morning.

Higgenbotham wrote: > The tools computers have are great for playing self-contained
> rules-based games like chess that have a finite number of
> possibilities. Humans suck at those kinds of tasks.

Higgenbotham wrote: > By getting computers involved in tasks that they have no business
> being involved in and for which their involvement actually confers
> massive disadvantages which are disruptive to the functioning of
> free markets, supply chains are going to collapse and the world is
> going to go into a dark age. This is as certain to me as the sun
> will rise in the east tomorrow morning.

John wrote: The question is not whether you can beat an average bot. It's whether
you can beat the best bots, the ones implementing advanced AI
techology. Are you able to beat Tudor's "Paul-In-A-Box," the one you
referenced on June 7? I would suspect not.

John wrote:There are a lot of people who dismiss the Singularity, and they always
give reasons like "A computer could never do X." That's like saying
that humans can never be better than apes because humans can't swing
from trees. And yet, humans are running the world, not apes. There's
a lesson to be learned there.

John wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote: > By getting computers involved in tasks that they have no business
> being involved in and for which their involvement actually confers
> massive disadvantages which are disruptive to the functioning of
> free markets, supply chains are going to collapse and the world is
> going to go into a dark age. This is as certain to me as the sun
> will rise in the east tomorrow morning.

Now you're saying something quite different. You're no longer
claiming that computers can never be better than humans at playing the
market. Now you're agreeing that they can be better, but that they'll
be so disruptive that the world will go into a dark age. Well, I
can't agree with the last part, but I do agree that computers will
certainly be disruptive.

"We have far too many companies in this group to comment on them individually. Moreover, both current
and potential competitors read this report. In a few of our businesses we might be disadvantaged if they knew our
numbers. So, in some of our operations that are not of a size material to an evaluation of Berkshire, we only
disclose what is required. You can find a good bit of detail about many of our operations, however, on pages 80-84.

I can’t resist, however, giving you an update on Nebraska Furniture Mart’s expansion into Texas. I’m not
covering this event because of its economic importance to Berkshire – it takes more than a new store to move the
needle on Berkshire’s $225 billion equity base. But I’ve now worked 30 years with the marvelous Blumkin family,
and I’m excited about the remarkable store – truly Texas-sized – it is building at The Colony, in the northern part of
the Dallas metropolitan area.

When the store is completed next year, NFM will have – under one roof, and on a 433-acre site – 1.8 million
square feet of retail and supporting warehouse space. View the project’s progress at http://www.nfm.com/texas. NFM
already owns the two highest-volume home furnishings stores in the country (in Omaha and Kansas City, Kansas),
each doing about $450 million annually. I predict the Texas store will blow these records away. If you live anywhere
near Dallas, come check us out.

I think back to August 30, 1983 – my birthday – when I went to see Mrs. B (Rose Blumkin), carrying a
11⁄4-page purchase proposal for NFM that I had drafted. (It’s reproduced on pages 114 - 115.) Mrs. B accepted my
offer without changing a word, and we completed the deal without the involvement of investment bankers or
lawyers (an experience that can only be described as heavenly). Though the company’s financial statements were
unaudited, I had no worries. Mrs. B simply told me what was what, and her word was good enough for me.
Mrs. B was 89 at the time and worked until 103 – definitely my kind of woman. Take a look at NFM’s
financial statements from 1946 on pages 116 - 117. Everything NFM now owns comes from (a) that $72,264 of net
worth and $50 – no zeros omitted – of cash the company then possessed, and (b) the incredible talents of Mrs. B,
her son, Louie, and his sons Ron and Irv.

The punch line to this story is that Mrs. B never spent a day in school. Moreover, she emigrated from
Russia to America knowing not a word of English. But she loved her adopted country: At Mrs. B’s request, the
family always sang God Bless America at its gatherings.

Aspiring business managers should look hard at the plain, but rare, attributes that produced Mrs. B’s
incredible success. Students from 40 universities visit me every year, and I have them start the day with a visit to
NFM. If they absorb Mrs. B’s lessons, they need none from me."

Warren Buffett, Verbatim from his 2013 Annual Report

aedens wrote:Good luck in July. I think swaps in hkd and usd will factor somewhat going into this window
other than the usual suspects. Take care all.