Financial topics

[John]

With regard to the price of silver, one thing that I've noticed for
the last few months is a change in tv commercials. There used to be a
lot of gold commericials, but I can't recall seeing one in quite a
while.

On the other hand, I've been seeing quite a few silver commercials.

As for whether all vertebrates are headed for an extinction event, I
have no opinion.

[Higgenbotham]

As for whether all vertebrates are headed for an extinction event, I have no opinion.

My only opinion on this at the present (and mentioned years ago) is that human institutions such as corporations, hospitals and even grocery stores can only survive under a much narrower set of environmental conditions than humans can. Therefore, once civilization collapses, it it does, there is a long way to go in terms of environmental parameters before human extinction is a possibility. To be more specific, it might (and I have no idea what the numbers are) take an approximately 0.8 degree C temperature rise from the 2016 peak to unravel the stock market and send it to zero (call that point A) whereas it might take a 5 degree C temperature rise to put human survival in question (call that point B). And I don't think anyone can possibly know or say what will happen between point A (which I am positive will happen "near term" due to some cause and probably some cause other than temperature) and a hypothetical point B (which I am fairly certain will not happen "near term"). On a related note, NASA's web site shows a huge rise in global temperature since 2009 when Bernanke "saved the world" and I think long term prospects for the human race would have been more positive had industrial activity been curtailed at that time.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/gl ... mperature/

This graph illustrates the change in global surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 average temperatures.

2008 deviation from the 1951-1980 average = 0.52 degrees C
2016 deviation from the 1951-1980 average = 0.99 degrees C
I will grant that the above is not the most objective way to present this data, but it may illustrate why people are concerned.

[aeden]

Vanguard capitulated and shifted on metal fund.
It took the loss and merged it as the Utility based fund
as we noted on the cef thread time reference to the approaching effects we trended.

The democrats are a gulf, divided and a bent of mind as foretold in Luke from the Master.
The seal in the forehead remains since we are warned in most severe terms what was to be.

“He answered, ‘Then I beg you, father, send Lazarus to my father’s house, for I have five brothers.
Let him warn them, so that they will not also come to this place of torment.’
“Abraham replied, ‘They have Moses and the Prophets; let them listen to them.’ Luke

They are lost, and slipping into darkness.
The deceptions will increase in terminal voracity as logistics try to recover on many fronts as we know
here in GD and GGS fragility studies.
As we noted early the Asian regions are severely damaged and not out of crisis.

They cannot understand the energy margin clusters and mechanisms of supply chains with headwinds they cannot even
pretend to fathom.

thread: 451

wall versus cliff

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nn8a8Mwyz08

[Higgenbotham]

I'm sort of like the climate scientists who predicted the Arctic sea ice would be gone in September by some year that's already long past.

Except my prediction was the stock market would go to zero by 2016.

They are still at it and so am I.

[John]

> My only opinion on this at the present (and mentioned years ago)
> is that human institutions such as corporations, hospitals and
> even grocery stores can only survive under a much narrower set of
> environmental conditions than humans can. Therefore, once
> civilization collapses, it it does, there is a long way to go in
> terms of environmental parameters before human extinction is a
> possibility. To be more specific, it might (and I have no idea
> what the numbers are) take an approximately 0.8 degree C
> temperature rise from the 2016 peak to unravel the stock market
> and send it to zero (call that point A) whereas it might take a 5
> degree C temperature rise to put human survival in question (call
> that point B). And I don't think anyone can possibly know or say
> what will happen between point A (which I am positive will happen
> "near term" due to some cause and probably some cause other than
> temperature) and a hypothetical point B (which I am fairly certain
> will not happen "near term"). On a related note, NASA's web site
> shows a huge rise in global temperature since 2009 when Bernanke
> "saved the world" and I think long term prospects for the human
> race would have been more positive had industrial activity been
> curtailed at that time.

> https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/gl ... mperature/

This graph illustrates the change in global surface
temperature relative to 1951-1980 average temperatures.

> 2008 deviation from the 1951-1980 average = 0.52 degrees C
> 2016 deviation from the 1951-1980 average = 0.99 degrees C

> I will grant that the above is not the most objective way to
> present this data, but it may illustrate why people are
> concerned.

It's interesting that after all these years, you haven't softened your
views about the collapse of civilization.

Compared to you, I'm almost a Pollyanna. My views have even softened
a tiny bit over the years, though not by much.

I still can't come to grips with the claim in the discussion we had
earlier this year in another thread that 90% of country would die
within a year after an emt attack.

I was just looking at the Siege of Leningrad during WW II.

https://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/w ... leningrad/

The siege lasted 900 days, or 2 1/2 years. The population at the
start was 2.5 million. After 2 1/2 years, it was 1 million, thanks to
starvation, disease, and people who managed to flee. That would be a
60% death rate, a lot lower than 90%. And Leningrad was being bombed.
In case of an emt attack today, I wouldn't last a week, but there are
a lot of strong, young people who would survive. I just can't wrap my
head around the 90% figure.

[Higgenbotham]

The initial worldwide kill rate during the first couple decades following the financial panic will exceed 90%.

This was part of my long term best guess predictions posted earlier this year. I think even in the event of a civilizational collapse from these very high and system dependent population numbers, which I am expecting "near term", it's going to take a decade or two to reduce the numbers to 10% of peak.

Part of the discussion regarding a possible EMP attack was about whether the grid would be knocked out entirely. If the entire US power grid were to be taken down all at once and none of it subsequently came back up, then, yes, I think the death rate could get to 90% in a year. But, based on the reports I've read, it's highly unlikely that any EMP attack could accomplish a complete and lasting takedown of the power grid.

One interesting data point to look at in this regard would be the percent of homes with electricity and indoor plumbing in 1945 versus today. Up until 1969, my grandfather's farm had a well and a hand pump as the primary source of water. After 1969, that farm became part of a "big ag" operation. Certainly, how to live without electricity and indoor plumbing was within the experience of a much larger percentage of the population in 1945 than it is now. But I have no concept as to what the percentages are.

[Higgenbotham]

There's not much I can find that gives relative percentages of what might be the more self-sufficient part of the population percentage-wise vs 1945. But here are some numbers to chew on.

Officials said an average of 4,986,000 people lived on farms in 1987, or 2 percent of the United States population of 243.4 million.

The farm population in 1920, when the official Census data began, was nearly 32 million, or 30.2 percent of the population of 105.7 million, the report said.

Despite a general downward trend since World War I, the farm population has had a few short surges, including one in 1933 when it grew to 31.2 million, or 24.9 percent of the United States population of 125.4 million.

https://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/20/us/f ... 850-s.html

A ballpark guess of the US farm population in 1945 - 15 percent?

The last sentence illustrates what a very old friend (born in 1915 and died in 2012) told me once: In the Depression you could go back to your relative's farm and sleep in the barn, but today you can't.

[Higgenbotham]

Getting to St. Petersburg now, and taking into account the above ideas, I was in Russia in 2006. I stayed in a city in a "Khrushchev Flat" apartment near the flats of some Russians. One day, we drove out to the village. The village was maybe 20 miles from the city. It appeared self-sufficient and some of the city folks had relatives living in the village. I asked if I could meet their relatives. I was told no, the people in the village don't want anything to do with a foreigner. Maybe I'll post a picture.

[Higgenbotham]

Russian village in 2006. Well with hand pump.



Overall view of Russian Village in 2006.

[Higgenbotham]

That's a city girl manning that well pump. I asked her to show me how they survived the collapse of the Soviet Union and she damn well delivered. She also organized all the pictures on a CD for me to take home.