Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Some of what I quoted above from 2009 and 2010 may no longer apply. My bet is that it doesn't. Those entrepreneurs that were mentioned as being on the sidelines waiting for a lower cost structure are 10 years older, tired, broke, or dead. Manufacturing know how and equipment are more of a distant memory and may no longer exist.

Those are some of my reasons for saying starting in 2011 that the point of no return had passed and the world would enter a new dark age.

[aeden]

https://www.askbrokers.com/news/market- ... everywhere

We have been doing targeted capex very carefully.
Component life to the bathtub curve is based in reality as numbers as we ignore the white noise data fragility data.

We have been mocked and targeted before but one thing rings true.

Thread: Parousia; Greek: παρουσία) is a meaning of presence, arrival, or official visit.
The ear and the eye have seen much in this cycle.

Today was anticipated as such. So will tomorrow in His garden.
I expect it to be difficult but not impossible to move ahead until we are truly tested.
I do not have words for how wrong the Democrats are in this hour.

Most people are not aware that sheep can go for months on end, especially if the weather is not too hot, without actually drinking, if there is heavy dew on the grass each morning. Sheep, by habit, rise just before dawn and start to feed. Or if there is bright moonlight they will graze at night.

Psalm 23

[Higgenbotham]

Some of what I quoted above from 2009 and 2010 may no longer apply. My bet is that it doesn't. Those entrepreneurs that were mentioned as being on the sidelines waiting for a lower cost structure are 10 years older, tired, broke, or dead. Manufacturing know how and equipment are more of a distant memory and may no longer exist.

Those are some of my reasons for saying starting in 2011 that the point of no return had passed and the world would enter a new dark age.

The question might come up as to why permanently offshoring manufacturing to China makes any difference. It makes a difference because the US was the leading technology center for manufacturing. When manufacturing was offshored, it became cheaper and less profitable, forward progress in manufacturing slowed or stopped, and quality went downhill.

In a similar vein, the discussion below from 2016 explains why millionaires leaving Chicago can be a net loss even though the same individuals exist within the larger political entity. When Illinois implodes on itself, as current headlines seem to be indicating, it will be partly because of what is discussed below.

It's not clear to me why millionaires fleeing Chicago for Seattle
means anything by itself. After all, Chicago's loss is Seattle's
gain.

True to some extent. I would say that the dark age that is sweeping across America has rendered wide swaths of territory inhospitable while benefiting narrow sections of territory due to refugees leaving the inhospitable areas. There may be 3 or 4 states that have significantly grown jobs and wealth since 2008 (around pre-2008 rates for the US as a whole).

Key jurisdictions are declining for the first time after centuries of gains because law and order has broken down (according to the survey). All parts of the civilization need to be functional for it to operate. The millionaires leaving the second tier cities are taking their wealth and expertise that sustains the functionality of that geographic area, accelerating the collapse of that area.

A similar thing is being seen in mortality rates in the US as previously discussed, and it is also happening for the first time after centuries of gains. I showed a map indicating that life is getting more difficult to sustain in about half the geography of the US. You mentioned that overall lifespans are increasing. This is true but for the first time in centuries we are seeing churning as the life gets sucked out of the periphery. Lifespan and mortality data is more of a lagging indicator but it is showing up nonetheless.

Overall numbers of millionaires are increasing in the US too but they are decreasing in key second tier countries and key second tier cities because wealth is getting more difficult to sustain, due to the giant sucking sound from Washington, New York, London, Brussels, etc., where they have to cannibalize the rest of the world to prop up their bankruptcy.

The question would be how much can decline, i.e., how much can the center suck out before it collapses on itself. All of the millionaires can't abscond to safe havens like Seattle, San Francisco, and Austin. I agree those areas will likely be functional for quite awhile longer than the rest of America due to that migration.

Note: The government statistics now show life expectancy decreasing in America. A lot has changed in the last few years.

[Higgenbotham]

Pritzker pitches “multi-year approach” to fix Illinois finances

February 20, 2019

SPRINGFIELD, Ill. (WEEK) — Gov. JB Pritzker’s first budget speech made clear the first-term Democrat doesn’t expect to fix Illinois’ financial straits in a year.

“To get to fiscal stability and eliminate our structural deficit, there’s no quick fix. It took decades to get us into this mess. It will take at least several years to get us out of it,” said Pritzker. “We must therefore embrace a multi-year approach with fair principles and smart investments in our people. Our state does well when our people do well.”

Pritzker said he wants to focus upon boosting education, health and human services, and public safety funding in the $39 billion fiscal year 2020 budget. The governor is also calling for a progressive income tax as a longer-term fix, though such a proposal couldn’t be introduced until next year at the earliest.

Without action, Pritzker’s administration said the state faces down a $3.2 billion deficit by spring of 2020.

In the near term, Gov. Pritzker called for legalizing recreational marijuana and sports betting to bolster revenues, as well as implementing a new tax on insurance companies to fund the state Medicaid program.

Pritzker also called for looking at a number of angles to fill Illinois’ $130 billion unfunded pension liability. Pritzker’s administration is looking at moving state assets into pension funds, or potentially selling state assets to bolster the funds.

Pritzker called for increasing funding for MAP grants, early childhood, and AIM HIGH scholarships. He also hailed Tuesday’s signing of a bill to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2025 statewide.

https://week.com/news/top-stories/2019/ ... -finances/

Oh yeah, that'll work (sarcasm). That is so 97th percentile.

[Higgenbotham]

Gen-Xers managing software development claim that they value "passion"
not experience, and they consider Boomers to be almost completely
worthless, no matter what experience they have.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Gen X has no idea how to hire, not a clue. I am a Gen X myself. I heard my Gen X managers say the same type of thing at my last job. I explained to a guy in the office that the reason they do that is so their incompetence doesn't get exposed by somebody who knows better.

I then explained to him how startups with superior personnel generally go downhill as they grow. An entrepreneur who is a 10 hires 9s, probably because he can't find any other 10s. The 9s, wanting to stay at their high level in the new start-up purposely bypass other 9s in the hiring process and hire 7s and 8s so as to maintain their superiority. The 8s then hire 6s and 7s, etc. His response was that what I said sounded right to him, and he had seen that process unfold in his experience.

Whether you're going to remain independent or fit into an organization, you have to dumb yourself down to the appropriate level. If you walk into an interview and assess that the hiring authority is an 8, you had better make yourself a 6 or a 7.

[Higgenbotham]

We covered this previously.

> A friend/acquaintance of mine committed suicide about 15 years ago
> and left behind a small child which is now about 23. This child
> carried on to graduate first in her high school class of 400 plus,
> was a national merit finalist, had some top 10 school records in
> athletics, and had a 3.97 college GPA from a small liberal arts
> college. Knowing that there were some Boomer retirements coming up
> in my workplace and that there was no means in place to prevent
> that information from being lost, I talked to my Gen X managers
> about hiring this girl for an opening we had. I said she would be
> the ideal candidate to soak up that knowledge. Really a once in a
> decade opportunity for the company. I had talked to the girl's
> mother and said, you know, since she had lost her father under
> tragic circumstances, that I would take her under my wing and then
> get her to the senior staff who would be willing to train
> her. Knowing the senior staff and knowing the girl, I realized
> senior staff would be thrilled to have her. The girl and her
> mother were very excited about this because it was in an area she
> wanted to work. The pay was low and I thought for sure the company
> would hire her. The fit was so obvious. She applied and never got
> an interview.

A major issue with Gen-Xers is "respect," in particular that Boomers
don't respect them. That seems reasonable, until you understand what
it means. If you work harder than a Gen-Xer, they you're making him
look bad, so you don't "respect" him. If you win an argument with a
Gen-Xer, then you really don't "respect" him. In either of these
cases, he'll sabotage you or knife you in the back, as soon as he can.
The reason, as you suggest, is that people are stupid and don't have
any clue what's going on, and so if you work harder, then you make his
stupidity obvious, so you don't respect him.

The girl you described looks to you like an obvious choice --
ambitious, hard-working, very intelligent. But to the "senior staff,"
she's someone who will make them look like the idiots they are. So of
course she didn't get an interview.

I told Ms Boomer (the person who was retiring at the end of the month) the story and she first laughed and then said, "Oh, she's too smart to work here." I didn't really know what that meant but it sounds like she really meant, "Oh, she's too smart to get hired here."

I once read something in Inc magazine that comes to mind. The author said let's say there is an entrepreneur who is a 10. He can't hire all 10s but he can hire 9s. The 9s want to make themselves look good so they hire 8s. And so on. I related that thought to a colleague there and he thought it made a lot of sense.

[Higgenbotham]

Today may be a test of this idea. If the idea below is correct, the bubble is leaking a lot faster than most anticipated. If so, can the Fed pivot fast enough to satisfy the market? Today may tell the tale.

The distinction in my mind is one of speed and scale. By speed, I mean the speed of response to any systemic crisis to feed liquidity in and continue to grow the bubble. By scale, I mean the fact that speed of response allows a bubble to grow larger. A fiat money system allows for greater speed and scale, meaning the Central Bank can extend the bubble longer and grow the bubble larger than can be done on a gold standard. There are a number of factors besides whether the money base is gold or fiat that are greater determining factors. The most important in my mind is the leverage employed. The leverage employed by hedge funds, for example, was more than 100 to 1 in some instances. Banks employ leverage of about 10 to 1; therefore, it can be seen that the introduction of hedge funds and the failure to regulate them was a bigger contributor to the bubble than whether the base money was gold or fiat.

A relevant note on this--a headline from yesterday said something to the effect that Geithner is saying speed of response is critical at this juncture. There are limits and the bigger the bubble gets, the faster it leaks when it does start leaking, and the faster the authorities have to move to grow it bigger until finally there comes a time when they cannot move fast enough.

Fed's Bullard: Rate hikes, balance sheet reduction 'coming to an end'

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard tells CNBC he thinks interest rate hikes and the reduction of bond holdings is near an end.

The central bank official says he expects a timetable to be finalized in "the next couple of months."

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/feds-bu ... n-end.html

Perfect!

[aeden]

https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/theeran ... hp?id=3597
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... om-mexico/

Are you talking about the level 10 eyes and Political Ponerology of the true nature of evil.
Like we know banches of the governement serving pathological criminals.
The next batch upcoming are a sophist dream to misdirection and filtering coruption paymnets.
From the paradise and panama papers it is business as usual of keyansian fiat lies.

[John]

> Some of what I quoted above from 2009 and 2010 may no longer
> apply. My bet is that it doesn't. Those entrepreneurs that were
> mentioned as being on the sidelines waiting for a lower cost
> structure are 10 years older, tired, broke, or dead. Manufacturing
> know how and equipment are more of a distant memory and may no
> longer exist.

I think that one thing that is happening is that younger generations
are reconstructing manufacturing processes, discarding old processes
(and older employees). This will result in disaster (as in WW III),
but they'll relearn all the old lessons that they discarded.

> Note: The government statistics now show life expectancy
> decreasing in America. A lot has changed in the last few
> years.

Quite believable, as older people are simply discarded.

> I've said it before and I'll say it again: Gen X has no idea how
> to hire, not a clue. I am a Gen X myself. I heard my Gen X
> managers say the same type of thing at my last job. I explained to
> a guy in the office that the reason they do that is so their
> incompetence doesn't get exposed by somebody who knows better.

> I then explained to him how startups with superior personnel
> generally go downhill as they grow. An entrepreneur who is a 10
> hires 9s, probably because he can't find any other 10s. The 9s,
> wanting to stay at their high level in the new start-up purposely
> bypass other 9s in the hiring process and hire 7s and 8s so as to
> maintain their superiority. The 8s then hire 6s and 7s, etc. His
> response was that what I said sounded right to him, and he had
> seen that process unfold in his experience.

> Whether you're going to remain independent or fit into an
> organization, you have to dumb yourself down to the appropriate
> level. If you walk into an interview and assess that the hiring
> authority is an 8, you had better make yourself a 6 or a
> 7.

I know that you're right, as I've gotten fired more than once for
telling my manager that the project was going in the wrong direction,
even though I turned out to be right. Being right is irrelevant.

It has occurred to me many times that I should "dumb myself down," but
I just can't do it. I've described in the past that the essence of
Greek tragedy is that a tragic conclusion is not a random event, but
comes about because of the nature of the people involved. People
bring about their own self-destruction, and even when they see it
coming, they can't stop it. That's happened to me, and now the final
dénouement is very close.

The people who are left behind are even worse off.

It still amazes me, as I've written many times, what happened on the
afternoon of October 1, 2013, when President Obama stood up at a press
conference to launch Obamacare. When a reporter asked why so few
people could log on, he answered that millions of people were
enrolling for insurance, so the web sites were slow. As it turned
out, only six people across the country were able to enroll on that
day.

I wrote all about this in my 2015 article.

How is it possible that Obama and the entire White House were so
completely blindsided by the disaster that was already unfolding that
they didn't even know what was going on hours after the launch had
begun? How many people had to lie? How many people had to commit
fraud? How many software tests had to be faked? How many people had
to be silenced or fired? How many layers of management were lied to,
to prevent Obama from knowing the size of the disaster, hours after
the disaster was already in progress? And what does this say about
the thousands of other IT projects going on in all industries?

Today when I turn on the news, the mainstream decisions today are
being by some of the stupidest people around, like Bernie Sanders and
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. No wonder the world is headed for
World War III. Maybe I'm headed for my own self-destruction,
but so is the public at large.

[Higgenbotham]

January 15, 2014. The living will envy the dead before this is over.

Poverty Is America’s “Only Growth Sector”

Suicide is also a growth sector. I have found out about 4 in the past year or maybe two, all personal acquaintances at one time. One stabbed himself through the heart and another shot his daughter, then shot himself through the abdomen and heart. Both had been swallowed up by the family court system which is what led to the suicides. Another was a banker in a small community bank, not sure what led to it but he may have realized the whole thing is hopeless. He was retired. The last one was a kid who helped me out with drywall and stuff like that when I knew him and became a machinist but could never find any steady work, as all the tooling went overseas. Except for the last one, they were intelligent people with college degrees.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/healt ... .html?_r=0

The best part of articles like these are the comments. The living will envy the dead before this is over. "Lee Houston, TX The people in this article claim they don't know why suicide rates have risen but the answer is obvious: people are losing hope because our government continues to destroy everything for their own interests. May 2, 2013 at 10:04 p.m. Recommended 363" Right on, dude.