** 24-Mar-2019 Alzheimer's cure
Higgenbotham wrote:
>
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/23/failed- ... roken.html
> This is a really interesting article which chronicles the possible
> failure of technology. I say possible, as there's not enough
> information known yet to say so.
> Everyone who's been reading this forum knows that my view on the
> future is not optimistic, to say the least. I consider myself a
> realist (yeah, we'd all like to think we are sooo objective,
> wouldn't we?) and have recognized there may be bright spots in the
> midst of future chaos, with biotech being one of them. I've
> believed the biotech would cure diseases like Alzheimers. I still
> do.
> But this news seems to indicate otherwise. About 5 years worth and
> 1/3 of Biogen's market cap was wiped out on this news. More
> importantly, the IBB biotech index gapped down and so far the gap
> is holding. IBB is something to watch more carefully now, in my
> opinion. This coming crisis may be even worse than I
> thought.
> The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotech giant joins a long list
> of companies in the last decade that have failed to find a
> treatment for Alzheimer's, a progressive and debilitating disease
> that often affects a person's memory, thinking and behavior.
> Biogen and Eisai lost billions of dollars in market value. The
> scientific community viewed the announcement as a setback after
> spending billions to research and develop possible treatments —
> with almost nothing to show for it. Patients and families living
> with the disease who had pinned their hopes on aducanumab were
> heartbroken.
> Salim Syed, senior biotech analyst at Mizuho Securities who covers
> the stock, said Biogen's failure was a shock to many as the
> Alzheimer's treatment showed promise and followed the widely
> accepted theory that beta amyloid was responsible for the
> disease.
I always doubted that the Alzeiheimer's cure would work, for
system reasons.
Generational Dynamics is System Dynamics applied to a population
system.
A system is a collection of components or entities. But what
makes a system different from a simple collection is the
interrelationships among the entities. This means that the
different entities help and support each other in various ways
to compensate for the failure of one component.
What I want to focus on is how when one component starts to fail,
other components in the system rush to help out. So, for example,
when a person goes blind, the parts of the brain used for vision begin
to provide increased support for hearing.
So when the system as a whole starts to degrade and fail, it means
not only that some components are failing, but also that other
components are failing to compensate, which means that they're
failing as well.
So a person outside failing system looking in may see one component
that's failing, and conclude that by fixing that one component, the
entire system would be fixed. But that overlooks the fact that the
failure of the system implies that multiple components are failing,
because they can no longer support each other and compensate for one
another.
So I know almost nothing about the physiology of the brain, but I do
know that it's a large complex system, highly interdependent system of
components. When I first heard about the Alzheimer's cure, I
suspected that it was targeting just one failing component of the
brain, and therefore would do little to fix the entire system. The
statement that treatment was based on "the widely accepted theory that
beta amyloid was responsible for the disease" seems to support my
concern.