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Re: Financial topics
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:31 am
by aeden
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aq1Ln1UCoEU bundles and sticks, burn the faggots then no record was available to mark.
Faggots are bundles of sticks for the cultural Marxists who forgot. Black boxes are faggots of the sticks today.
Latency is your Zero. Hedge with what you know is the only difference.
MANIAC was the first machine to prove the results.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:29 pm
by Higgenbotham
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:32 pm
by Higgenbotham
John wrote:
The Pollyannaish statement of the law is "Regression to the mean,"
meaning that if the P/E ratio is historically high for years, then
eventually must return to the mean, which is 14. This is a
mathematically fallacious way of looking at it, since if P/E is
high for years, then the mean would permanently change.
The correct statement is "Reversion OF the mean," meaning that,
starting from any point, the average in the future will equal the
average in the past. This means that a historically high P/E will be
compensated for by a lower than average P/E in the future.
A web site reader took one of my graphs in 2007 and modified it as
follows:
There will have to be green stuff in the future to compensate for the
purple stuff. The Law of Mean Reversion means that the total area of
green stuff over time will equal the total area of the purple stuff.
This is even more true today than it was in 2015 when written.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:37 pm
by John
Great comparison and analysis!
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:57 pm
by Higgenbotham
The 112% figure was calculated at the end of June and is about 116% as of yesterday's close.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:03 pm
by aeden
12-to-24 months, Gold prices could move to $1,700 once they breach $1,400.
Oil will follow it.
Then your scenario "should" gain traction.
More conclude 10 percent shiny stuff in a thing called capital retention.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:12 pm
by Higgenbotham
Dow gold ratio
Peaks August 1999, October 2006 (lower high) and September 2018.
Stock market peaks the year after Dow gold peaks.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to ... ical-chart
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:20 pm
by aeden
Agree with a slice of reality H.
Consumers are brainless in the States.
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=4l7AH39u
The risks and returns on investments in stocks, bonds and commodities since 1991 concluded that you should not invest in commodities.
However, the authors failed to look at allocations to commodities in the proper context.
That was July 29, 2009
My view is so much different with the gap we knew was coming.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:38 pm
by Higgenbotham
aeden wrote:Agree with a slice of reality H.
Interesting to consider that Dow gold says there was a bear market in stocks from 1999 to 2011, then a bear market rebound from 2011 to 2018 which is now likely ending. Also, if gold prices fall from here (as John and others believe), there could be a 95% or so wipeout in stocks.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:38 pm
by aeden
The trends of a economy does change on a weekly basis.
Trend commodity's tighter as in free cash flow.
I will admit to 1500 gold and 60 oil
and 1000 gold 40 oil noise for the deflationary's sooner or
later can be a reality.
Lets be clear Banks are in the Gold Business.
If the EU puts a gun in its mouth and blows up the market five
percent for derivatives they will not be missed very long since
paper tigers are never missed for long. Ask the original paper tiger
meat heads how that worked out for them.
