Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Higgenbotham wrote:There were unusually heavy resting orders in the ES yesterday (referring to July 3) as the market moved up. Over 1000 orders at 2990, 2991, 2992, 2993, 2995, 2996, 2999, and over 1500 at 3000. I don't recall seeing this many blocks of over 1000 orders.

There are lots of opinions on the stock market. But few who have the capability to put money behind their opinion to that degree.

Does that mean it's the top? No, but those who place large resting orders tend to be right more often than not. And I may have a couple of those numbers wrong, as I didn't write them down, but in general the above is correct.

Higgenbotham wrote:Another question might be how often is a block of 1000 resting orders seen in the ES? I would say once or maybe twice a week and it's almost always at just one level, not multiple levels.

For comparison, at the 2915 low a few days ago that occurred during off peak time (near the 4 pm close), there were also large resting orders for that time of day and there were about 3 blocks of around 350 orders. There were around 600 near the July 3 low of the day.

Higgenbotham wrote:Looking at this long term weekly chart of the nearby S&P futures together with other information (some of which has been previously posted here), I think the market is in the zone for a high. Since early 2018, it does have the appearance of the flutter effect discussed years ago.

Flutter is a self-feeding and potentially destructive vibration where aerodynamic forces on an object couple with a structure's natural mode of vibration to produce rapid periodic motion. Flutter can occur in any object within a strong fluid flow, under the conditions that a positive feedback occurs between the structure's natural vibration and the aerodynamic forces. That is, the vibrational movement of the object increases an aerodynamic load, which in turn drives the object to move further. If the energy input by the aerodynamic excitation in a cycle is larger than that dissipated by the damping in the system, the amplitude of vibration will increase, resulting in self-exciting oscillation. The amplitude can thus build up and is only limited when the energy dissipated by aerodynamic and mechanical damping matches the energy input, which can result in large amplitude vibration and potentially lead to rapid failure.

Megaphone pattern, in other words.

As the most systemically important bank in the world, there isn’t much to be done about Deutsche’s alleged $227 billion money laundering scheme. Like the Austrian Creditanstalt collapse of 1931 that helped spurred the global Great Depression, a Deutsche Bank collapse could end up being just as consequential. The institutions currently probing the bank then have virtually no choice but to give it a slap on the wrist at the very most.

As history rhymes, the ironic thing about all this is that Creditanstalt was taken over by none other than Deutsche Bank back in 1938 after Hitler united Germany and Austria. Now here we are 80 years later, it’s the most systemically important bank in the world, and we’re discussing the largest suspected money laundering operation in history by the same bank.

Creditanstalt had to declare bankruptcy on 11 May 1931. This was one of the first major bank failures that initiated the Great Depression. In fact, the failure of the Creditanstalt is what sent shockwaves throughout Europe, quickly spreading the Great Depression.