Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

War parties would kill women, children, and seniors without a thought and comprehensively genocide or enslave the healthiest and kill the rest.
The last discussion was the 1820 forge killings on the Holston River known as King's Boat Yard before our dinner. I will reconfirm the date.
He was buried up the Hill from the forge. The Ancestor. These idiots today would not last long enough to be even a thought map.
The first contact from my Wife Aunt from a Suitor was if you are even seen again being dropped off at the County line you die.
He had the balls to kidnap her and went North by the the dark and bloody ground the locals call it.
Today you would call it the hillbilly highway to Detroit. The children call it metd now.

After a treaty violation by the English, war erupted again. The militia and about 1,000 Indian allies traveled into Tuscarora territory and waged war. According to historian Carl Waldman, approximately 400 Tuscarora were sold into slavery, and some as far north as Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. The remaining Tuscarora fled northward and joined the Iroquois League as the Sixth Nation. Later, during the Revolutionary War, the Oneida and the Tuscarora sided with the Americans while the Mohawk, Onondaga, Cayuga, and Seneca allied with the British.

The Tuscarora War united religious factions in North Carolina; even Quakers, writes Powell, “furnish[ed] provisions for men under arms.” A precedent was set, too: paper money was issued during the emergency. The colony acted similarly in future crises, even though depreciation always followed.

Sources
William S. Powell, North Carolina: A History (Chapel Hill, 1977, reprint 1988)

thread: dnrip pcir pdlt
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 310#p47424

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019 ... -violated/ why is this idiot not covered in dirt yet

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH5QzuzD01A

same guys as last time with no accountability

Can - they - tell what asset has risen 9%+ for the last 20 years and why we should listen.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=+i ... ORM=WNSIPR

They are shitting their pants. They are fighting for control with the last of your currency's value.
Perez and His criminal handlers are flipping international cushions for change.
If they had any balls or brains they would not let that deranged prick back in.

162 years ago today.

Higgenbotham wrote:

"On the morning of August 24, 1857, the financial community of New York was horrified by the announcement of president Charles Stetson that his city branch of the Ohio Life Insurance & Trust Company had suspended payments. Men quickly learned that the house, which did a heavy business in western investments, had liabilities of from five to seven millions - and that its assets had been largely embezzled by the cashier. The economic situation had been uneasy. A panic now struck, sudden and devastating as a tornado. Stocks fell to incredible levels; commodity prices sank; bankruptcy followed bankruptcy."

"During the spring and summer of 1857, talk of an imminent financial crash had spread throughout the country. Bankers and tradesmen discussed it; the press was full of it. "A Coming Crash" - such was the title of an editorial in the New York Tribune of June 25. The London Economist echoed the dark prognostications of the New York Shipping List.

Yet to most Americans, confident in their resources and energy and encouraged by favorable crop reports, the blow that fell in August was stunning. Till the middle of the month the stock market remained fairly vigorous. At home, hopes of peace in Kansas remained high; abroad, the only serious trouble was the Sepoy revolt. On August 11, one of the oldest flour and grain houses of New York, NH Wolfe & Co., failed. Then came the Ohio Life & Trust crash, and alarm became universal."

This is from a history book entitled The Emergence of Lincoln. I thought the chapter on the Panic of 1857 captured the essence of generational panic, what it feels like, and why it occurs better than any text I have ever read.

Higgenbotham wrote:This weekend we read on the boards that sentiment has gotten very negative very quickly and therefore the stock market will rally to work off that bearish sentiment. Or something like that.

Is that right? Not necessarily, but it can be right and it has been generally right in the past, though maybe not entirely precise.

Why has it been right? Well, the primary reason in my opinion is because stocks have been in a bull market for, oh, about the last 500 years. Therefore, since stocks have always continued higher at some point after sentiment turns more negative, it seems right to think that will continue. But it won't if stocks have indeed made a 500 year high and are heading much lower for many years, if not forever. In that case, the sentiment figures are accurate at best and overly optimistic at worst.

So sentiment really means nothing. What matters is how accurately the sentiment figures reflect reality.

Higgenbotham wrote:

aeden wrote:Your flutter theory covers more than a few concrete points H.

That's another thing that crossed my mind as I was typing. This is a time when sentiment is likely to swing wildly day to day or even hour to hour. So quoting sentiment figures as if they mean something in relation to future stock market prices is most likely bogus anyway. Probably the better indicator is the herd thinking these sentiment indicators they are quoting actually mean something.

This is from last weekend. Strangely, the herd on the boards are no longer this weekend quoting negative sentiment figures and pointing to those as a reason to be positive on the market. I am only reading that the herd is now negative. That means that even though the market is in a position to crash, it could actually rally from here. For me, that is too hard to call at this point because the Fed officials stated on Friday that they will now cut rates versus what we heard before that the July rate cut was mid cycle. The market didn't respond to that, but it might respond positively on Monday.

The noise is filtered.
https://thecorrespondent.com/5349/meet- ... 3-fe73c5b1

I would consider the actual case we discussed as the rope burn phase. Date not needed here.
The other side of the coin is when the digital hits the deck as the venn flower diagram indicates
all hell will break out since the illicit cartel money has a hash tag in it that is unbreakable
from the white papers as such from the color keys back orifice cracks in the day.
We touched on that element also as the air of simple realism cascades over the realms as we say.

Satoshi was correct.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 300#p47394

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08- ... california

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-bull ... 1908231213

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1VD19C

Bullard said a key reason for further rate cuts is the Treasury yield curve, which recently inverted again.

“The yield curve is inverted here. We’ve got one of the higher rates on the yield curve here. That’s not a good place to be,” Bullard told CNBC in a separate interview.

Bullard had said last week that he was not ready to commit to reducing rates at the Fed’s upcoming Sept. 17-18 meeting.

If the current S&P 500 were sitting squarely on the regression, it would be at the 1365 level.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... erformance

** 24-Aug-2019 World View: Stock Market Trend Value

Higgenbotham wrote: >> If the current S&P 500 were sitting squarely on the regression, it
>> would be at the 1365 level.

> https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... erformance

According to the Dshort chart, the current S&P is 119% above the trend
value.

I compute the DJIA trend value on my DJIA page, which I update
frequently.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... i.djia.htm

On Friday, the DJIA was at 280% of trend value, which is 180% above
trend value, much more than the Dshort value of 119%. Why the
difference?

Because the Dshort chart uses the Excel function to compute the trend
line using values to the present time, including the last 24 years of
bubble.

What I did was different. I wanted a "normal" trend line that didn't
include the current bubble, so I chose the interval 1904 to 1994.
During that period, the long-term growth rate was 4.57% per year.

So the trend value for the DJIA comes out to:

trend value = 38.46486589 * exp(0.0457096666 * (date - 1900))

Friday's date was 8/23/2019, or 2019.64. Plugging that into
the trend formula, we get Friday's trend value as 9122,
which is the value shown on my DJIA page.

So the DJIA on Friday was 25628.90, which was 280% of the trend value,
which is what my djia page shows, or 180% above trend value.

John wrote:** 24-Aug-2019 World View: Stock Market Trend Value

Because the Dshort chart uses the Excel function to compute the trend
line using values to the present time, including the last 24 years of
bubble.

What I did was different. I wanted a "normal" trend line that didn't
include the current bubble, so I chose the interval 1904 to 1994.
During that period, the long-term growth rate was 4.57% per year.

So the trend value for the DJIA comes out to:

trend value = 38.46486589 * exp(0.0457096666 * (date - 1900))

Friday's date was 8/23/2019, or 2019.64. Plugging that into
the trend formula, we get Friday's trend value as 9122,
which is the value shown on my DJIA page.

So the DJIA on Friday was 25628.90, which was 280% of the trend value,
which is what my djia page shows, or 180% above trend value.

What you did seems far more correct to me because it measures trend growth over approximately one complete 80 year cycle. Your method also shows that at the July 2019 high the Dow was more nearly the same percentage above trend as at the January 2000 peak, which seems closer to reality.