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Re: Financial topics
Posted: Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:07 pm
by Higgenbotham
Reading the above, that's almost precisely what goes on during the evolution of a stock market bubble.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:49 am
by Higgenbotham
Higgenbotham wrote:Reading the above, that's almost precisely what goes on during the evolution of a stock market bubble.
Assuming this is correct, as the bubble grows, corporate stupidity grows along with it. Eventually, the level of corporate stupidity cannot possibly justify the elevated stock prices, and the stock market and corporate profits crash. As Mackay stated, "They recover their sense slowly and one by one."
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:57 am
by Higgenbotham
October 16:
Higgenbotham wrote:
The market has received some certainty on trade and easy money.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetary ... trends.htm
Now the rally to the SPX 3100 area that the bulls have been calling for over the past 5 months has the actual impetus to materialize. Whether it will or not, I don't know.
We are in uncharted waters here because so far as I know the Fed has never taken "extraordinary" measures at the peak of a bull market. So far as I know, they have cut interest rates near a peak but haven't done balance sheet expansion near a peak.
Today would be a reasonable candidate for the top of the market. However, the odds never favor a top on any day the S&P 500 reaches a new all time high.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:56 pm
by vincecate
Higgy:
>Today would be a reasonable candidate for the top of the market. However, the odds never favor a top on any day the S&P 500 reaches a new all time high.
Hi Higgy! Good to see you still here. I have been away for a long time.
I like Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, and think the Stock market is rather high.
I think at some point we just have to get some inflation and then the Fed is in trouble. Raising interest rates enough to fight inflation would hurt so much they won't be able to. The government, companies, and individuals all need cheap interest given how high their debt load is. If Interest rates go up too many will be bankrupt.
Outside of Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver, any other ideas for how to position for high inflation?
Seems like troubled times must be getting closer.
-- Vince
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:02 pm
by John
** 01-Nov-2019 Vince Cate
vincecate wrote:
> Higgy: >Today would be a reasonable candidate for the top of the
> market. However, the odds never favor a top on any day the S&P 500
> reaches a new all time high.
> Hi Higgy! Good to see you still here. I have been away for a long
> time.
> I like Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, and think the Stock market is rather
> high. I think at some point we just have to get some inflation
> and then the Fed is in trouble. Raising interest rates enough to
> fight inflation would hurt so much they won't be able to. The
> government, companies, and individuals all need cheap interest
> given how high their debt load is. If Interest rates go up too
> many will be bankrupt. Outside of Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver, any
> other ideas for how to position for high inflation?
> Seems like troubled times must be getting closer.
> -- Vince
Hi Vince, it's good to see you. I was worried about you after all
those storms wiped out the Caribbean islands. I'm glad you're ok.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:44 pm
by vincecate
Hi John!
I went through a divorce. Even after the biggest hurricanes most Anguillans are recovered 6 to 12 months later. A divorce is more like 5 to 7 years of hardship I think. But I am doing well now.
-- Vince
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:05 pm
by aeden
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:09 pm
by John
vincecate wrote:
> Hi John!
> I went through a divorce. Even after the biggest hurricanes most
> Anguillans are recovered 6 to 12 months later. A divorce is more
> like 5 to 7 years of hardship I think. But I am doing well now.
> -- Vince
Wow. I'm sorry to hear that. I remember that cute picture of you and
your wife on your web site. You both looked very happy. I'm sorry it
didn't work out. But, you know, life sucks.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:48 pm
by vincecate
We had a "US dot com bubble" pop in 2000 and a "US housing bubble" pop in 2008. Now we seem to have a world wide bond bubble, whole stock markets (not just dot com), and real estate in general (not just housing). The 11 years of very low interest rates have made all interest rate sensitive assets go up in price all around the world. People are calling this the "everything bubble". Is that the general view here?
Also, there seem to be a larger than normal number of countries with huge riots going on. Some because of prices going up. Higgy had some quote about the collapse starting at the periphery and then spreading to the core. Makes me wonder if this is a sign of the start. I think inflation is where this all goes bad.
Re: Financial topics
Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:52 pm
by Higgenbotham
vincecate wrote:Higgy:
>Today would be a reasonable candidate for the top of the market. However, the odds never favor a top on any day the S&P 500 reaches a new all time high.
Hi Higgy! Good to see you still here. I have been away for a long time.
I like Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, and think the Stock market is rather high.
I think at some point we just have to get some inflation and then the Fed is in trouble. Raising interest rates enough to fight inflation would hurt so much they won't be able to. The government, companies, and individuals all need cheap interest given how high their debt load is. If Interest rates go up too many will be bankrupt.
Outside of Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver, any other ideas for how to position for high inflation?
Seems like troubled times must be getting closer.
-- Vince
Hi Vince, great to see you are back. Here's something you may be interested in regarding commodities, inflation and the dollar:
https://youtu.be/KtwukIr4RQk?t=666
For what he says about the stock market, that is before this section after the interview starts at 7:15.
Also, I forgot his exact words, but Powell said on Wednesday that he won't be raising interest rates unless there is a resurgence of inflation. The market seemed to take that as a guarantee that interest rates will be staying down. But it seems to me that Powell may have mentioned a resurgence of inflation because the Fed has that on their radar (given what the guest says in this interview).