Financial topics

[aeden]

Peter Schiff has said he expects the Fed to print money faster and faster, but who else is really saying that? I think there are many more that realize this but don't say it in such plain terms.

In fact, views from across the ideological spectrum are converging on the notion that a semi-permanent monetization of larger fiscal deficits will be unavoidable — and even desirable — in the next downturn.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/print ... 2019-10-28

Automation Is replacing off shoring. The numbers will be ignored. Another 50 million will be eliminated and ignored like the current 50 million.

[vincecate]

In fact, views from across the ideological spectrum are converging on the notion that a semi-permanent monetization of larger fiscal deficits will be unavoidable — and even desirable — in the next downturn.

Left-wing proponents of so-called Modern Monetary Theory argue that larger permanent fiscal deficits are sustainable when monetized during periods of economic slack, because there is no risk of runaway inflation.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/print ... 2019-10-28

I looked at MMT and found the problem and corrected it making CMMT a long time ago:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/245153 ... ary-theory

It is both sad and scary to see the increased popularity of MMT.

If the stock market crashes, Trump would probably not get reelected, and there is a good chance the US gets a socialist president who likes MMT. I really think owning some Bitcoin, gold, and silver is a good thing at this time in history. Socialists seem to have no understanding of history or economics.

[Higgenbotham]

Peter Schiff has said he expects the Fed to print money faster and faster, but who else is really saying that? I think there are many more that realize this but don't say it in such plain terms.

In fact, views from across the ideological spectrum are converging on the notion that a semi-permanent monetization of larger fiscal deficits will be unavoidable — and even desirable — in the next downturn.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/print ... 2019-10-28

Here's another one saying it in less plain terms:

At a wide-ranging discussion at the Greenwich Economic Forum with billionaire hedge fund chief Ray Dalio, Jones called the current combination of fiscal and monetary policy “the most stimulative it’s ever been.”

He also suggested the dynamic has created an unusual political convergence between Democrats and Republicans, as neither party has tackled the issue of deficit spending.

President Donald Trump “is the greatest salesman in the history of this country,” Jones said, noting that the president persuaded the Republican Party to embrace a massive deficit as “a reasonable proposition and [an example of] good government policy.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paul-tud ... 33438.html

[vincecate]

Here's another one saying it in less plain terms:

I suspect all the Billionaires that come on these business shows and talk about the markets understand the high risk of inflation and so own gold. But if one of these guys came out and said, "the Fed is going to monetize faster and faster till the dollar is worthless", they might become the trigger that starts the process. In the USA today they could get sued for causing the panic that happened. Peter Schiff is not a Billionaire, and seems to keep most of his wealth outside the USA, so does not have as high a risk of lawsuit as most of these guys, so he is not self censoring the way these guys are.

[John]

** 10-Nov-2019 Inflation

> I looked at MMT and found the problem and corrected it making CMMT
> a long time ago:
> https://seekingalpha.com/article/245153 ... ary-theory

> It is both sad and scary to see the increased popularity of MMT.

> If the stock market crashes, Trump would probably not get
> reelected, and there is a good chance the US gets a socialist
> president who likes MMT. I really think owning some Bitcoin,
> gold, and silver is a good thing at this time in history.
> Socialists seem to have no understanding of history or
> economics.

Seriously?? After over fifteen years of mostly disinflation around
the world even though interest rates almost everywhere are near zero
or even well below zero, you're still talking about hyperinflation?
Really??

I'll just leave thee with a parable:

Germany, Zimbabwe and Venezuela were small economies with small
amounts of currency. The US is an enormous economy, with almost an
infinite amount of currency in all sorts of dollar accounts and dollar
denominated assets around the world.

If thou startest pouring buckets of water into a bathtub, then it will
soon overflow, so sayeth the plumber.

But if thou startest pouring even millions of buckets of water into
the ocean, it won't affect the ocean at all.

Thou art forgiven.

[vincecate]

Seriously?? After over fifteen years of mostly disinflation around
the world even though interest rates almost everywhere are near zero
or even well below zero, you're still talking about hyperinflation?
Really??
[...]


If thou startest pouring buckets of water into a bathtub, then it will
soon overflow, so sayeth the plumber.

But if thou startest pouring even millions of buckets of water into
the ocean, it won't affect the ocean at all.

Do you think the Fed can print as much as they want without risk of hyperinflation?
The US government budget is around $4 trillion per year. If the Fed prints $1 trillion every year you think it would be fine?
I expect this "Not QE" to print more than $1 trillion in 12 months. What about $2 trillion, or $3 or $4 trillion per year? If there is no big risk from printing money, should the US just do away with taxes?

The numbers are bigger for the USA than Argentina or Venezuela, with the US being a reserve currency for the world, maybe even as different as a bathtub and a swimming pool, but it is not as different as a bathtub and the ocean. I do expect the phenomenon to work the same way, just on a bigger scale.

Even Krugman, who very much likes money printing (nobody would call him a Gold Bug) thinks the USA could only get away with a few percent of money printing per year without inflation spiraling out of control.
https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/ ... DbMzpgAg8k

[Higgenbotham]

Neil Howe is asked point blank whether he thinks we are going to war with China.

https://youtu.be/HWVj970xB5o?t=1975

[Higgenbotham]

Neil Howe is asked point blank when will we get inflation?

Answer: "Next recession."

https://youtu.be/HWVj970xB5o?t=2655

[Higgenbotham]

Do you think the Fed can print as much as they want without risk of hyperinflation?

I think that if they use the same policies in the next recession to cut the recession short that they used in 2008, that the world will be ready this time and enough trading partners will reject the US dollar as payment for it to lose reserve currency status. After that, there will be a major devaluation at a minimum with the worst case being that the dollar becomes worthless.

[vincecate]

Do you think the Fed can print as much as they want without risk of hyperinflation?

I think that if they use the same policies in the next recession to cut the recession short that they used in 2008, that the world will be ready this time and enough trading partners will reject the US dollar as payment for it to lose reserve currency status. After that, there will be a major devaluation at a minimum with the worst case being that the dollar becomes worthless.

seems Russia and China have reduced dollar holdings and increased gold holdings.

https://www.rt.com/business/471130-chin ... -holdings/