Financial topics

[aedens]

http://www.traderview.com/tedbits/Garre ... g06-09.pdf

Transitions are tough … transitions in long term cycles are really tough.

I will go back and few pages to check your reference on timeline transitions data points.
Also do not ignore that they knew this was coming also Higgy. I think our time lines are rather close btw.
Like I conveyed we moving stuff that matters. I will see the compression effects before many but as you know
I must regard measures of acountability in my position. Also remeber Uncle Ben would pull the trigger on the mop up
crew with Mr. Volkners template. The only thing we are seeing is Mises amplitude effect to monetary and
market cycle effects. Regards

[Higgenbotham]

I will go back and few pages to check your reference on timeline transitions data points.
Also do not ignore that they knew this was coming also Higgy.

In that article by Jones, he identifies the large "crash pattern" in one of the diagrams. I don't know his method, but I identified the same pattern months ago. If we crash I will explain to the forum how I did it and what kind of downside targets we could be looking at.

PS My timeline was to look for a high in the bubble between roughly mid July and mid August at a maximum of roughly S&P 1000. Then I expected things to start falling apart after mid August and to accelerate in the Fall. My thesis has always been that any manipulation is insignificant noise and within the error of my projections. One thing I forgot to mention here was the Japanese episode. Their rebound rally was 24 weeks and 39%. I began shorting at 20 weeks and 41% and added the second piece at 24 weeks and 49%.

[jcsok]

Higgenbotham wrote:

""Very few will be short at the peak. As of Friday's close, I am the only person I know of who is short (besides 2 people on this forum - freddyv and wvbill). "

I'm short SPU from 879, since early August, now looking to add to it. Popular belief or statements are typically "nobody will be short" or "few will be short". Think about it --- in the futures, half of the open interest is long, half is short. The Fibonacci retracement was approximately 1008, I thought that it would take out the 1015 level, where obvious stops were, but couldn't stand on the sideline any longer. I've been avoiding looking at the market and CNBS during the day because I can't stomach the lies. I just plan on taking the heat for a long time. I don't use stops because I'm a foolish trader, waiting for maximum ruin.

[Higgenbotham]

Popular belief or statements are typically "nobody will be short" or "few will be short". Think about it --- in the futures, half of the open interest is long, half is short.

The hogs like Warren Buffett (who has been shamelesssly promoting stocks), Soros (who has been saying the recession is over), and the big banks, etc., will be short thousands of contracts each at the high whenever it comes. The little guys will be out of their shorts in about 97% of all cases and on the other side will be a zillion small players holding longs.

[John]

The hogs like Warren Buffett (who has been shamelesssly promoting stocks), Soros (who has been saying the recession is over), and the big banks, etc., will be short thousands of contracts each at the high whenever it comes.

This sounds to me like actual securities fraud.

John

[Higgenbotham]

This sounds to me like actual securities fraud.

John

If questioned on it, they will say they were "hedging" and it will actually be the truth because they're up to their eyeballs in long positions and don't have any way to get out in an orderly manner. But like aedens said, they know it's coming.

That's why I said there can be a freefall straight down. There will be few left with any incentive to cover their shorts. If you're hedging you just have a neutral position anyway.

Here's the thing to think about - 90% of all retail traders lose so look for 90% to be on the wrong side when it comes. I actually think it's higher than 90%, probably more like 97%.

[gerald]

Higgenbotham wrote:

"Once the bubble bursts, in order to restore the trust of the international community, the American people are going to have to take matters into their own hands and make sure HR 1207 gets passed. Ron Paul has a book coming out September 16 called "End the Fed". In order to save the dollar, I believe the Fed will have to be dismantled, the fraudsters put on trial and imprisoned and honest leadership restored. In short, there will need to be a second American Revolution.

I believe that will happen once the crash ignites the fury of the American people. However, if it does not, then I believe the dollar will be destroyed and America will collapse in a similar manner to the Roman Empire, 14th Century Europe and the Soviet Union. I should also add that as far as timelines, I would have no idea. First, the bubble bursts and then take it from there. But if the bubble doesn't burst, then I dunno."

My observations:

Useless observations and information. I spend some time reading on line articles from major publications about government, finance and taxes. I also find readers comments to these articles interesting. I have noticed that in the last 2 to 3 months a substantial increase in comments stating we need a "Second American Revolution", many of these comments also quote the Founding Fathers and the Constitution. And, as time goes on, more and more end there comments with "Lock and Load"
A segment of the economy that is doing very well,
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/200 ... tage_N.htm
Another interesting tidbit is the military oath, part of which reads,"to defend the constitution against all enemies both foreign and DOMESTIC". caps my emphasis.
http://usmilitary.about.com/cs/military ... orders.htm
I have bumped into some military personal and family, and they are about ready to go ballistic.
Looks like things may get more interesting.

[Higgenbotham]

A segment of the economy that is doing very well,
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/200 ... tage_N.htm

"There's a concern about what's happening to the stock market, what's happening with unemployment, what's happening with the tremendous increase in government spending, whether there will be hyperinflation," Keane said.

Interesting how that article ends. Implication is some people are buying guns because they are concerned about hyperinflation. They may be demanding an end to the Fed sooner rather than later. Methinks the American public is getting on the right track.

[aedens]

A segment of the economy that is doing very well,
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/200 ... tage_N.htm

"There's a concern about what's happening to the stock market, what's happening with unemployment, what's happening with the tremendous increase in government spending, whether there will be hyperinflation," Keane said.

Interesting how that article ends. Implication is some people are buying guns because they are concerned about hyperinflation. They may be demanding an end to the Fed sooner rather than later. Methinks the American public is getting on the right track.

The end product of this analysis should be a statement indicating the extent to which the inflation-targeting central bank believes that it can pursue a hierarchical mandate. Inflation-targeting central banks should engage in a serious dialogue with their constituents about the optimal rate of inflation. In particular, it believes that the appropriately-measured, long-run inflation rate is positive; it should state the reasons for this belief.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-038.pdf
Imagine the Fed explaining confiscation by inflation. They flooded the market with their Heroic paper presence now they have to clean it up sooner than later IMO. I cannot see the G.19 moving down can you? http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/ data to wit or nor can they since we all know the Consumers vigor. I still feel we are farther along on terms of mid seventy pain still. Key work is serious dialog and it will have to precise without the Wall Street trade blowback since many indeed should be pink slipped anyway or on the docket. This goes beyond moral hazard given the dollar index looming since if it drops we seen the correlation to fuel which will annilate million of consumers since there sacred CPI worship will be more than crushed. What is the spark for the massive internal combustion to be unleased. We already know that amplitude wave. Debased Money is debased people until total collapse. These idiots never get it and far to many new it was coming anyway.

Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government’s long-term budget outlook is darker than expected, with projected deficits over the next 10 years totaling $2 trillion more than had been forecast, according to an Obama administration official.

A White House budget review set for release Aug. 25 will show cumulative deficits over the next decade amounting to $9 trillion, up from $7.1 trillion that the administration predicted in May, the official said on condition of anonymity because the figures haven’t been made public.

[Rammstein]

The increasingly agitated masses of today lead to some interesting GD- historical parallels in terms of group behavior and cheapshot humor : Do you think we could make this stick to Owebama ?

Madame Deficit

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/style/ ... thing.html

R.