Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

We all know about "group think"
So on this forum my question is do we have a bunch of people, namely John, Aeden and Higg, who think the same but are insanely pessimistic?
Its a good question. Probably asked before?
Yes, the market is over bought, might drop 60 to 70 % but melt down the global financial world as we know it? Where is the logic?
Please post any previous proofs
Richard

** 18-Nov-2019 This time it's different.

richard5za wrote: > We all know about "group think" So on this forum my question is do
> we have a bunch of people, namely John, Aeden and Higg, who think
> the same but are insanely pessimistic? Its a good
> question. Probably asked before? Yes, the market is over bought,
> might drop 60 to 70 % but melt down the global financial world as
> we know it? Where is the logic? Please post any previous proofs
> Richard

Yes, you're right. We're being foolish. This time it's different.

richard5za wrote:So on this forum my question is do we have a bunch of people, namely John, Aeden and Higg, who think the same but are insanely pessimistic?

All the bears I know are:

Broke
Dead
Afraid to short

Higg is not broke yet but probably will be before the top is reached
John is planning to commit suicide soon (and Higg is considering it just because life is not worth living in the world as it is)
Aeden is afraid to short - book 4 is closed

Meanwhile, today

I smashed the bots for $1,689.50 (after commissions) on the day

But my short position is currently down $2,062.50 on the day

And I'm getting damn tired of this.

** 18-Nov-2019 Mathematical Proof

richard5za wrote: > We all know about "group think" So on this forum my question is do
> we have a bunch of people, namely John, Aeden and Higg, who think
> the same but are insanely pessimistic? Its a good
> question. Probably asked before? Yes, the market is over bought,
> might drop 60 to 70 % but melt down the global financial world as
> we know it? Where is the logic? Please post any previous proofs
> Richard

I don't know what kind of proof you're looking for. If you're looking
for a mathematical proof, then I provided it yesterday in my posting
showing the two graphs. If you apply the Law of the Reversion of the
Mean to those two graphs, then you get the mathematical proof you
want. If you want to believe that "This time it's different" and the
Law of the Reversion of the Mean has been repealed, then you'll have
to look elsewhere.

As the old saying goes: If something can't go on forever, then it
won't.

I know that you're a deeply religious Catholic. I believe that Aeden
is also a deeply religious Catholic. Perhaps the two of you can
communicate on some level that would be helpful.

If the rule you followed brought you to this, what good is the rule?

If you want simple proof just look at the idiots/incompetents/assholes who are running things. That's enough.

If you want something more complex, look at things like the fact that debt growth is outpacing economic growth, so with no debt growth the economy would be contracting.

80% of all day traders quit within the first two years.
Among all day traders, nearly 40% day trade for only one month.
95% of all traders fail.

I do not fit that profile.
I do ignore the percentages that violate the three trade rule.
H as myself understand you cannot explain what they will never want to understand.
They violate safety in a ponerlogical impulse to be accepted in a standard that cannot survive.

** 18-Nov-2019 World View: Smashing the Bots

Higgenbotham wrote: > All the bears I know are:

> Broke
> Dead
> Afraid to short

> Higg is not broke yet but probably will be before the top is reached

> John is planning to commit suicide soon (and Higg is considering
> it just because life is not worth living in the world as it is)

> Aeden is afraid to short - book 4 is closed

> While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the
> capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and
> violently.

Higgenbotham wrote: > Meanwhile, today

> I smashed the bots for $1,689.50 (after commissions) on the day

> But my short position is currently down $2,062.50 on the day

> And I'm getting damn tired of this.

> While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the
> capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and
> violently.

You should write a book titled "Smashing the Bots -- How to Day
Trade."

I'm not joking. Unlike my pathetic books, which have sold only a few
dozen copies, a book like yours on day trading would probably be a
best seller.

John wrote:** 18-Nov-2019 World View: Smashing the Bots


You should write a book titled "Smashing the Bots -- How to Day
Trade."

I'm not joking. Unlike my pathetic books, which have sold only a few
dozen copies, a book like yours on day trading would probably be a
best seller.

If the markets crash big and I'm lucky enough to be on it when it happens (and have the proof to show in the book), I may write a book. Part of the book will deal with forum sentiment and how to use it to make money (other forums, not this one). The book probably won't sell enough copies to make it worthwhile.