freddyv,
I remember you recommending the work of Louise Yamada in the past. I came across an interview with her from last week on Financial sense. Thought it was worth the listen. Gerald Celente follows, who is always, uh, interesting...
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/f ... 822-3b.mp3
Financial topics
Re: Financial topics
My favorite passage is point 6: "Banks are different from other businesses. Survival can depend on the ephemeral nature of public confidence."Higgenbotham wrote:http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... e_Decl.pdf
The above document is the banking industry's response. My interpretation of what it says in a nutshell is: "The banking industry really needs to continue to hide our financial condition because if you report the truth to the public about how bad off we are there is a high risk of bank runs. "
I guess that means banking is a confidence game and bankers are con men.
Japanese Election
I've been looking for signs of free market life in the world and I'm wondering if this is it:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_japan_election/print
(Japanese opposition party set to win)
Here is their philosophy:
"The Democratic Party finds that a free market economic system is favorable for Japanese people's welfare. The claim is that they represent "citizens, taxpayers and consumers,"[7] not seeking to favor either free market or the welfare state and see the government's role as limited to building the necessary system for self-reliant and independent individuals." from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_of_Japan
And yet I have no idea how to interpret this. Can any Japan experts comment on this?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_japan_election/print
(Japanese opposition party set to win)
Here is their philosophy:
"The Democratic Party finds that a free market economic system is favorable for Japanese people's welfare. The claim is that they represent "citizens, taxpayers and consumers,"[7] not seeking to favor either free market or the welfare state and see the government's role as limited to building the necessary system for self-reliant and independent individuals." from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_of_Japan
And yet I have no idea how to interpret this. Can any Japan experts comment on this?
-
Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7984
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
More Short Seller Capitulation
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/ ... ction=list
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... b#e080618b
This year, Janjuah also correctly forecast that the stock market (S&P 500) could rally to a level of 1000-1050 by the end of August. He said that the economic data would not justify the projected levels and the market would then crash again. He then flew off to Barbados. Apparently, a lot of traders have been following Janjuah's predictions and I suppose it's possible that many covered their shorts on Friday morning's open, which was the high for the day before dropping back and closing 10 points below the open.
At the same time this was occurring, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave issued a special alert for subscribers to go short. I'm not a subscriber, but read about it at Yelnick's website and a couple other places.
In June 2008, Janjuah issued a global crash alert, which was covered in John's blog here:Neil Hume wrote:
Published: August 28 2009 20:05 | Last updated: August 28 2009 20:05
When the last bear capitulates, it’s time to start selling. That was the view of many traders this week when they heard Bob Janjuah, RBS’s chief markets strategist, had thrown in the towel.
At the start of August, Mr Janjuah, who has a reputation as an uber-bear (albeit one who has called the twists and turns of the market better than most), said he would consider his negative view on risky assets “closed out” if the S&P 500 finished above 1,022 for four consecutive sessions. If that happened it would show a money illusion bubble had been created and the lunatics were back in charge of the asylum, he said.
Thursday, the S&P completed its fourth straight session above that level and, with Mr Janjuah holidaying in the Caribbean, it was left to his colleague Andy Chaytor to close the position and open a tactical (one-month) bull position.
As investors return from their summer holidays, Mr Chaytor said they would take one look at where the markets were and start putting money to work. This buying, he said, could carry the S&P 500 to 1,121 – 8 per cent above Friday’s midday level.
But will investors really chase the market on their return from the beach? Or will they conclude that the rally in risk assets that started in March has gone far enough and lock in profits? After all, it is often a good time to sell when the bears are capitulating.
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... b#e080618b
This year, Janjuah also correctly forecast that the stock market (S&P 500) could rally to a level of 1000-1050 by the end of August. He said that the economic data would not justify the projected levels and the market would then crash again. He then flew off to Barbados. Apparently, a lot of traders have been following Janjuah's predictions and I suppose it's possible that many covered their shorts on Friday morning's open, which was the high for the day before dropping back and closing 10 points below the open.
At the same time this was occurring, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave issued a special alert for subscribers to go short. I'm not a subscriber, but read about it at Yelnick's website and a couple other places.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: More Short Seller Capitulation
Yea I made the rounds also. I even seen a Site In India linked to you screwballs, lol, I will see you at the bottum, and I will yell back when I am back in. I tapped out 21 august. I will check my history files for the chap in India, basically he has a 70 day count chart but in this infested market please convey coherances to waves and tech orientations other than GD trends? Being holiday soon I anticipate some drift down and even the crowd on CNBC is opined to correction. I turned them off in short order. I churned up some data points that reflected a brief thought that I may switch off until February until blood is knee deep as the horror lingers on jobs elimination that will persists further. Consumers are still being exterminated Higgy and you can bet your last dollar they knew it before there beloved bubble machine cared to mention the level of dislocation mechanism's I will adher to since they are as they are. As I mentioned you will find a floor to this trend and feel you will be just fine. I do not short as you know but sitting on the fixed has a few daily advantages, namely I go to bed making a gain everday and the Bund rate will tell more soon I feel. If i see ~10% drop I will put 2.x % in. What i have seen is a local slippage of 5.5 to 5.6 floor stabilization markers lately on some asset deflated from 1982 dollars level to there actual cost since I had data points to it as many do. I had to go back that far to posit the rate of some assets priced to these dollars today. I hate to be that way but deflation is the only chance in hell we have to reconnect some consumers to get this market moving forward to investment spending at least on my findings. I feel namely like 5 to 8 percent down or more here from our current level to sweep some absolute balance sheets out but they do not prescribe to this reality so screw them. We are not at bottom yet as we all know but will pound out some data until that CPI God the Feds have used to dislocate actual spending over time as acrued debt speculation on may fronts resolve. Contract should be enforced and the Bank get the same dose as the speculation customer to fullfillment and I did reflect on the imposion number of Banks to date. It has really caught the Keynesian's and our Country in a long term non value added orientated tar pit.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/arch ... Japan.html - “This election has been all about changing the government,” Hatoyama said in a nationally televised press conference. “Everything starts now.”
denninger posits: Create a basket-of-currency settlement system over in Asia with the Yen and Yuan as the core elements and the US immediately loses control of the game we've been trying to run with the banksters and fraud-laced credit games in the United States." Given the avarice and the beltways condition how long will the tax payer keep voting the lepers back in who deseased the process? We know the so called checks and balances take time but not decades to this ill condition and America is not only to fault. Cooler heads can prevail but the level of more than concerns thinking people. This is make or break time for the White House over the next year as we see the verticle international landscape moving away it more than appears. I think fair trade can be establised or we need to simply focus on core issues at home point blank and as I have forwarded attitude starts at the top and change as reminded from the inside. It may be a colder winter indeed. We understand there plan on the nature of the Fed and the Central Bank and know it it crucial for the taxpayer to understand that it will take time enough to fix thinks so he has time to clean it up top to bottum since the first place in inside your own door and tell the gatekeepers to do just that as gatekeep. The spin garbage will drag on until mid term elections I feel and that should be a fatal mistake to the voter to contemplate. We know the crises needs a direction and to date we know where that is going in its leaning. The left coast and the right coast better remember the middle part or this may indeed get real ugly.
Japanes joint venture with GM over. Hello.... add trends here. I feel they will slowly walk out the door just as did North America Company's since Nafta et. al. This has been a long term trend as over the last few decades we watched it happen. Given the instant communication abilities since the wall fell we do live in interesting times. The Keynasian playbook leads to genarational socialism gradualisms as there goal and we know when the model breaks. When there are not enough to pay for it, and for semantic purposes pick up Human Action by Ludwig Von MIses as a primer on why it happened. Mr. Obama mustered the vote as the Senate except a few could not see the writing on the wall that red ink musters no relationship. Some in the EU think the inmates are runnin the market now, and here many have alluded to the children in Washington. As we know we can tough it out as mentioned until sound reasoning returns. Given the reality if they kicked ass and took names this could of been tempered by avarice blinds. As conveyed some time back we are still sending stuff over the pond and maybe salvage another contract but indeed more dismissals are coming as are the SCDS and CDS settlements over the pond also mentioned soon. Tear up's are happening as treasury by proxy, but as my first or second conveyance was on GD forwarded to remind how adulterated we are in the scope and political landscape out there in context to severe disconnects from players who really are still ideological masked in this grand sad affair to date. John has painted a pretty damn good picture we have trended to date with the format. Also, our settlement cleared to the last contract so its in tax free acount until the principal mails me the account so its been a good week so far.
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articl ... ptcy/20199 "Last fall’s panic was not really a “black swan” event; it was the realization that much of the banking system was insolvent and at the mercy of electronic bank runs. Last fall, I thought that at the very least, the authorities had a plan to wind down Lehman in a controlled manner. Instead, Lehman went into forced liquidation and took the “shadow” banking system down with it."
Paul Volcker, Stanford, Feb 11, 2005
A few selected excerpts:
"Altogether, the circumstances seem as dangerous and intractable as I can remember."
"Boomers are spending like there is no tomorrow."
"Homeownership has become a vehicle for borrowing and leveraging as much as a source of financial security."
"I come now to the heart of the problem, as a Nation we are consuming and investing, that is spending, about 6% more than we are producing. What holds it all together? - High consumption - high leverage - government deficits - What holds it all together is a really massive and growing flow of capital from abroad. A flow of capital that today runs to more than $2 Billion per day."
"What I'm really talking about boils down to the oldest lesson of financial policy in Central Banking: A strong sense of monetary and fiscal discipline."
As investors return from their summer holidays, Mr Chaytor said they would take one look at where the markets were and start putting money to work. This buying, he said, could carry the S&P 500 to 1,121 – 8 per cent above Friday’s midday level.
But will investors really chase the market on their return from the beach? Or will they conclude that the rally in risk assets that started in March has gone far enough and lock in profits? After all, it is often a good time to sell when the bears are capitulating. [/quote]
In June 2008, Janjuah issued a global crash alert, which was covered in John's blog here:
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... b#e080618b
This year, Janjuah also correctly forecast that the stock market (S&P 500) could rally to a level of 1000-1050 by the end of August. He said that the economic data would not justify the projected levels and the market would then crash again. He then flew off to Barbados. Apparently, a lot of traders have been following Janjuah's predictions and I suppose it's possible that many covered their shorts on Friday morning's open, which was the high for the day before dropping back and closing 10 points below the open.
At the same time this was occurring, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave issued a special alert for subscribers to go short. I'm not a subscriber, but read about it at Yelnick's website and a couple other places.[/quote]
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/arch ... Japan.html - “This election has been all about changing the government,” Hatoyama said in a nationally televised press conference. “Everything starts now.”
denninger posits: Create a basket-of-currency settlement system over in Asia with the Yen and Yuan as the core elements and the US immediately loses control of the game we've been trying to run with the banksters and fraud-laced credit games in the United States." Given the avarice and the beltways condition how long will the tax payer keep voting the lepers back in who deseased the process? We know the so called checks and balances take time but not decades to this ill condition and America is not only to fault. Cooler heads can prevail but the level of more than concerns thinking people. This is make or break time for the White House over the next year as we see the verticle international landscape moving away it more than appears. I think fair trade can be establised or we need to simply focus on core issues at home point blank and as I have forwarded attitude starts at the top and change as reminded from the inside. It may be a colder winter indeed. We understand there plan on the nature of the Fed and the Central Bank and know it it crucial for the taxpayer to understand that it will take time enough to fix thinks so he has time to clean it up top to bottum since the first place in inside your own door and tell the gatekeepers to do just that as gatekeep. The spin garbage will drag on until mid term elections I feel and that should be a fatal mistake to the voter to contemplate. We know the crises needs a direction and to date we know where that is going in its leaning. The left coast and the right coast better remember the middle part or this may indeed get real ugly.
Japanes joint venture with GM over. Hello.... add trends here. I feel they will slowly walk out the door just as did North America Company's since Nafta et. al. This has been a long term trend as over the last few decades we watched it happen. Given the instant communication abilities since the wall fell we do live in interesting times. The Keynasian playbook leads to genarational socialism gradualisms as there goal and we know when the model breaks. When there are not enough to pay for it, and for semantic purposes pick up Human Action by Ludwig Von MIses as a primer on why it happened. Mr. Obama mustered the vote as the Senate except a few could not see the writing on the wall that red ink musters no relationship. Some in the EU think the inmates are runnin the market now, and here many have alluded to the children in Washington. As we know we can tough it out as mentioned until sound reasoning returns. Given the reality if they kicked ass and took names this could of been tempered by avarice blinds. As conveyed some time back we are still sending stuff over the pond and maybe salvage another contract but indeed more dismissals are coming as are the SCDS and CDS settlements over the pond also mentioned soon. Tear up's are happening as treasury by proxy, but as my first or second conveyance was on GD forwarded to remind how adulterated we are in the scope and political landscape out there in context to severe disconnects from players who really are still ideological masked in this grand sad affair to date. John has painted a pretty damn good picture we have trended to date with the format. Also, our settlement cleared to the last contract so its in tax free acount until the principal mails me the account so its been a good week so far.
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articl ... ptcy/20199 "Last fall’s panic was not really a “black swan” event; it was the realization that much of the banking system was insolvent and at the mercy of electronic bank runs. Last fall, I thought that at the very least, the authorities had a plan to wind down Lehman in a controlled manner. Instead, Lehman went into forced liquidation and took the “shadow” banking system down with it."
Paul Volcker, Stanford, Feb 11, 2005
A few selected excerpts:
"Altogether, the circumstances seem as dangerous and intractable as I can remember."
"Boomers are spending like there is no tomorrow."
"Homeownership has become a vehicle for borrowing and leveraging as much as a source of financial security."
"I come now to the heart of the problem, as a Nation we are consuming and investing, that is spending, about 6% more than we are producing. What holds it all together? - High consumption - high leverage - government deficits - What holds it all together is a really massive and growing flow of capital from abroad. A flow of capital that today runs to more than $2 Billion per day."
"What I'm really talking about boils down to the oldest lesson of financial policy in Central Banking: A strong sense of monetary and fiscal discipline."
As investors return from their summer holidays, Mr Chaytor said they would take one look at where the markets were and start putting money to work. This buying, he said, could carry the S&P 500 to 1,121 – 8 per cent above Friday’s midday level.
But will investors really chase the market on their return from the beach? Or will they conclude that the rally in risk assets that started in March has gone far enough and lock in profits? After all, it is often a good time to sell when the bears are capitulating. [/quote]
In June 2008, Janjuah issued a global crash alert, which was covered in John's blog here:
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... b#e080618b
This year, Janjuah also correctly forecast that the stock market (S&P 500) could rally to a level of 1000-1050 by the end of August. He said that the economic data would not justify the projected levels and the market would then crash again. He then flew off to Barbados. Apparently, a lot of traders have been following Janjuah's predictions and I suppose it's possible that many covered their shorts on Friday morning's open, which was the high for the day before dropping back and closing 10 points below the open.
At the same time this was occurring, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave issued a special alert for subscribers to go short. I'm not a subscriber, but read about it at Yelnick's website and a couple other places.[/quote]
- Attachments
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- BOPBCA_Max_630_378.png (15.68 KiB) Viewed 10420 times
Re: Financial topics
Shanghai is down 6.7% on Monday. It's beginning to look more and
more that Shanghai is in the middle of a replay of last year's crash.
Will the Chinese investors panic? Since China was supposed to save
the world, how long can Wall Street hold out?
John
more that Shanghai is in the middle of a replay of last year's crash.
Will the Chinese investors panic? Since China was supposed to save
the world, how long can Wall Street hold out?
John
Re: Financial topics
Boeing announced a new timeline for 787 development. First delivery is now scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2010, which is two and a half years late.
In our sector we are staging staggered shutdowns next 2 quarters. I would loosly translate as -6% net working capital best guess overall. We have many segements and products but understand some overall demand slippage ongoing will accur. We are stable for now since management made tough choices for net working capital. Also clearly understand we already built capacity in for supply chain issues when this predicated cycle notches up. If they drop 10 percent so what? I think some smart money went off the table. Some contracts on commodity are to be severed. Crisis mode depends on supply, water, weather since they do keep order when they see a social black cloud. I just cannot see it breaking yet since more are attuned to information services and they are a very focused culture unlike our fragemented divided mindset here to date. Eat the herd they are clueless
In our sector we are staging staggered shutdowns next 2 quarters. I would loosly translate as -6% net working capital best guess overall. We have many segements and products but understand some overall demand slippage ongoing will accur. We are stable for now since management made tough choices for net working capital. Also clearly understand we already built capacity in for supply chain issues when this predicated cycle notches up. If they drop 10 percent so what? I think some smart money went off the table. Some contracts on commodity are to be severed. Crisis mode depends on supply, water, weather since they do keep order when they see a social black cloud. I just cannot see it breaking yet since more are attuned to information services and they are a very focused culture unlike our fragemented divided mindset here to date. Eat the herd they are clueless
John wrote:Shanghai is down 6.7% on Monday. It's beginning to look more and
more that Shanghai is in the middle of a replay of last year's crash.
Will the Chinese investors panic? Since China was supposed to save
the world, how long can Wall Street hold out?
John
- Attachments
-
- TDOF.jpg (27.73 KiB) Viewed 10215 times
Re: Financial topics
In 1997, a study of the inventors honored in the National Inventors Hall of Fame in Akron, Ohio, revealed that 91% of the world’s greatest inventors worked in America and only 9% in other countries. All this because of America’s superior patent system which gave men the incentive to burn the midnight oil for a chance to own a property right in their own invention. That is the fountainhead of America’s progress.John wrote:Shanghai is down 6.7% on Monday. It's beginning to look more and
more that Shanghai is in the middle of a replay of last year's crash.
Will the Chinese investors panic? Since China was supposed to save
the world, how long can Wall Street hold out?
John
As Robert Ringer said in 1979, “The reality is that the communist has been allowed the luxury of keeping his collectivist cake, while eating off the fruits of capitalism.”
America is looted and broke and no one listened...
Re: Financial topics
I heard one pundit suggest that the market was going "parabolic."
Another pundit compared the craziness today to what he saw in the
dot-com boom. He said that people were paying astronomical prices for
stocks in the belief that they would go nowhere but up, and would be
many times higher in five years or so. He said that people are
saying similar things about AIG today.
Meanwhile, short squeezing is still driving the market higher,
according to the following article from Financial Times:
illusion not only that the worst is over, but that the market will
skyrocket to new highs (Dow 20000? 50000? 100000? a million?) in the
next few years. So it doesn't matter what you pay for stocks now,
since you'll get many, many times your money back within a few years.
There's a new ISM (manufacturing) report due out at 10 am. Pundits
expect it to be exceptionally good, indicating that the economy is
having substantial growth in Q3.
The only downers are the warnings that "September is the cruelest
month."
John
Another pundit compared the craziness today to what he saw in the
dot-com boom. He said that people were paying astronomical prices for
stocks in the belief that they would go nowhere but up, and would be
many times higher in five years or so. He said that people are
saying similar things about AIG today.
Meanwhile, short squeezing is still driving the market higher,
according to the following article from Financial Times:
So the market is being driven higher by short squeezing, and by the> Shorters' retreat helps fuel volatility
> By Michael Mackenzie and Francesco Guerrera in New York
> Published: August 29 2009 03:00
> Short sellers have been deserting the US stock market in droves
> during its sluggish summer sessions in a retreat that has helped
> fuel the recent volatile trading in AIG and other beaten-down
> financial shares, analysts said yesterday.
> Short sellers seek to profit from price declines by selling
> borrowed shares and then "covering" their positions with purchases
> of the same stocks. When large numbers of short sellers close
> their positions by buying shares at the same time, the stocks
> involved can register explosive - and often inexplicable - gains.
> Although stocks gave back some of their gains in early trading
> yesterday, the S&P has climbed steadily in August to its highest
> levels in 10 months, with some of the best performing stocks
> being those that were most heavily sold short - AIG, Fannie Mae,
> Freddie Mac and Citigroup.
> Analysts say short sellers have been closing many of their
> positions in recent weeks. Short interest as a percentage of S&P
> 500 stocks fell to its lowest level in eight months by mid-August,
> according to the most recent data. Bespoke Investment Group said
> average short interest in other major equity indices had fallen to
> the lowest levels since at least October 2007.
> "The US Fish and Wildlife Service may have a new candidate for
> its endangered species list," said Paul Hickey of Bespoke. "It's
> short sellers."
> Closing short positions has been particularly difficult recently
> because of low summer volumes. The low volumes and resulting
> short squeeze, in turn, have cast doubt on the current rally's
> sustainability.
> http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a88cd9ae-9432 ... abdc0.html
illusion not only that the worst is over, but that the market will
skyrocket to new highs (Dow 20000? 50000? 100000? a million?) in the
next few years. So it doesn't matter what you pay for stocks now,
since you'll get many, many times your money back within a few years.
There's a new ISM (manufacturing) report due out at 10 am. Pundits
expect it to be exceptionally good, indicating that the economy is
having substantial growth in Q3.
The only downers are the warnings that "September is the cruelest
month."
John
What happened at 10:38 am?
The markets were up slightly until 10:38 am, following a positive ISM
report, then suddenly the Dow fell 150 points in just a few minutes.
What was that all about?
John
report, then suddenly the Dow fell 150 points in just a few minutes.
What was that all about?
John
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