Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 29-Jan-2020 World View: How Corporations Make Decisions
Higgenbotham wrote: > How Corporations Make Decisions (Organizational Stupidity)

> Person A is told to put out the trash. For some unknown reason
> which is no fault of Person A whatsoever, the trash collector
> neglects to pick up the trash. The supervisor of Person A assumes
> Person A did something wrong and the next night tells Person B to
> put out the trash. Person B puts out the trash and the trash gets
> picked up as normal. Person B is hailed as a hero (after all, the
> trash was really piling up) and the one with the magic touch when
> it comes to getting trash collected. Person B is now a trash
> collection expert while Person A is labelled as clueless by
> management when it comes to the subject of trash.

Person A, who is on a team of programmers developing a critical air
traffic control software product, adds error-checking code to the
product so that it will handle bad input data gracefully, rather than
simply crashing. Person B does not want Person A to get credit for
error-checking code, and so deletes that code. The supervisor has no
clue about coding, or why error-checking is even necessary, and Person
B tells the supervisor that Person A was adding erroneous code to the
product. The supervisor, who has no idea what's going on, decides to
side with Person B, and Person A is labeled as incompetent and later
fired. Meanwhile, the product is released with no error checking, and
it crashes in the field.

Company A is hired to develop a web site. Company B is hired to
oversee Company A. Company A is totally incompetent, and is unable to
meet the specifications, and fabricates a test to justify further
funding. A whistleblower in Company B refuses to sign off on the
fabricated test. His supervisor at Company B signs off on the test
himself, and fires the whistleblower. Funding continues to flow to
both Company A and Company B. Nobody knows what's going on until
October 1, 2013, when the web site fails to work.
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Fed’s Powell must clear up mistaken impression T-bill purchases are fueling stock bubble, former central banker says

Published: Jan 29, 2020 11:23 a.m. ET

Former New York Fed President says it’s important to push back given that the balance sheet expansion is going to end soon


Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell must use his press conference later Wednesday to clear up the market’s mistaken impression that the central bank’s expansion of its balance sheet is fueling the rise in stocks, said former New York Fed President William Dudley on Wednesday.

“They need to explain very clearly why they are doing this — to add more reserves to the banking system and what are the consequences of that — and push back a little bit against this narrative that their T-bill purchases are fueling a big bubble in the equity market. I just don’t think that’s true,” Dudley said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

Dudley said stocks are rising because the economy is healthy, earnings are solid and the Fed has signaled that it won’t even think about raising interest rates until inflation rises over its 2% annual target.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds- ... 2020-01-29

My take would be that the Fed is getting nervous about how big this bubble is getting. It's my guess that the market will test the Fed, knowing that the Fed is on the run, and make the Fed "do something" to break the bubble rather than letting the Fed get by with mere jawboning.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

That type of A and B narrative tends to work well on many real world examples.

Probably the greatest number of examples I've seen is where random fluctuations in performance numbers or events are attributed to a particular manager. For example, let's say somebody is a QC manager and customer complaint rates are down 25% due to factors such as weather, fluctuations in sales or product mix, etc. It's normal business to attribute those fluctuations to the manager when the manager has nothing to do with it.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 29-Jan-2020 World View: Typology of A-B narratives
Higgenbotham wrote: > That type of A and B narrative tends to work well on many real
> world examples.

> Probably the greatest number of examples I've seen is where random
> fluctuations in performance numbers or events are attributed to a
> particular manager. For example, let's say somebody is a QC
> manager and customer complaint rates are down 25% due to factors
> such as weather, fluctuations in sales or product mix, etc. It's
> normal business to attribute those fluctuations to the manager
> when the manager has nothing to do with it.
Well, we could create a typology of such A-B narratives.
  • The "trash" example was totally incompetent management, since
    the supervisor could have checked on why the trash wasn't collected.
  • The "random fluctuations" examples are political. When things
    go well, the politician takes credit; when things go poorly, the
    politician blames the opposition.
  • In the two examples that I gave, it was criminal fraud and sabotage.
aeden
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

aeden
Posts: 13923
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Higgenbotham wrote:
richard5za wrote:Higg and Aeden,
This is a reversal OK, but any guesses about it going down a long way? Personally I think it could well be a flash crash that tests the 200 DMA but I have no views on whether it will go further
The setup looks the same as January 2018, but I don't think the outcome will be the same. My guess is that it does not get to the 200 dma as they will roll out rumors of a phase 2 trade deal and increased fed intervention to stop the slide before it gets that far.
Yes as the overall decline increases as noted correctly from tyler as the New School for Social Research was once a prestigious institution for European emigres from WWII. Some of the best philosophers of the last 80 years have come out of there. I know this won't mean much to some here, but you all wouldn't be able to make sense of politics without political philosophy, for instance. This woman isn't really an academic, she's a political hack who wormed her way into a VP position there as a useless bureaucrat, and gets to teach a course or two for another $100K.
Nothing wrong with The New School that isn't in every other college or university in the US. Been taken over by Social Justice psychotics who are steamrolling their way over spineless middle-aged men and pegging them into submission.

The ponerological depredations are the mythical 10 percent we garnered as independents.
The recorded vampire economical effects are ignored.
Dietrich was correct to effects simply ignored.
We discussed the seal that was sent and was noted the vine since we know who He is.

thread: Henningers in the Oberst genealogy in Unterowisheim,
Baden. There, they were related to the Mullers.

pretext: [Addendum January 25, 2020: a reader just sent me this link to an Atlantic article from 2017, which
confirms my assumptions here. There, we discover these interesting facts: 1) 70% of those in jail
nationwide have not been convicted of anything. 2) Between 1990 and 2009, the percentage of those
required to post bail rose from 37% to 61%. 3) In one small state (Maryland), $75 million dollars were
stolen from citizens who posted bail, were acquitted, and whose bail was not refunded. 4) Blacks pay
up to 84% of bail premiums and fees. 5) Storefront bailbond services like those found in poor
communities are run by large global insurance companies. And who owns those companies: the
Phoenician Navy, of course.]
aeden
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://pastebin.com/irj4Fyd5
51.xx 1583.xx
thread 34xx

http://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?ke ... sf=msgonly

..they labored 25 years to translate the New Testament into the local language. Today, more the 12,000 make up the Chol Christian Community – which, by the way, is financially self-supporting. What’s most amazing, however, is that even though the locals didn’t know how to sing when the missionaries arrived, they’ve since became known as “the singers.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3H5Lx6rOgg
aeden
Posts: 13923
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=8kaIzGZ5
But then again - traders panic-bid oil too...

Deutsche Bank prophetically write this a month ago, reflecting on the market's ability to entirely ignore potentially terrible news in the short-term...

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=tMjVCwN4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOeKidp-iWo
Last edited by aeden on Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
aeden
Posts: 13923
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

aeden
Posts: 13923
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202001311368685676.html
82 new cases of pneumonia confirmed by new coronavirus infection in Guangdong tonight.
Last edited by aeden on Fri Jan 31, 2020 6:53 am, edited 4 times in total.
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