Financial topics

[aedens]

> Who is naked in the moon light John:
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-k ... link=kiosk
> Even if we told them they would ignore us John on the Capital
> Investment Issues. Slowly they are walking out the door as we
> conveyed. Discipline over conviction is at hand and they do not
> get it. Treasury as proxy in relationship to monetized debt ratios
> and tearup's we warned about. Settlements are due in October in
> EU.

That's an interesting story, undoubtedly dictated by the Beijing
government, as they prepare for war with the West.

John

IMO it is a false painic, and a cash call to leveraged players in currency markets. Time will
tell more than we can right now. http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 1920#p4096
Washington ignored reality -"Paul Volcker, Stanford, Feb 11, 2005
A few selected excerpts:
"Altogether, the circumstances seem as dangerous and intractable as I can remember."
"Boomers are spending like there is no tomorrow."
"Homeownership has become a vehicle for borrowing and leveraging as much as a source of financial security."
"I come now to the heart of the problem, as a Nation we are consuming and investing, that is spending, about 6% more than we are producing. What holds it all together? - High consumption - high leverage - government deficits - What holds it all together is a really massive and growing flow of capital from abroad. A flow of capital that today runs to more than $2 Billion per day."
"What I'm really talking about boils down to the oldest lesson of financial policy in Central Banking: A strong sense of monetary and fiscal discipline."

-and needed another year or two to stabilize Housing segments. With the resets coming and policy to spending it is a warning to
pivot to stability first spend later I feel. Some links not forwarded to SDR being realized if the West is prepared to move in that direction. I think it was the Peterson Institute who commented on the direction it was moving "SDR" and there observation of it in that context of time conveyed.

Growing pains really I suggest.
"Having a central government-sponsored vault would create a situation where you could conceivably look at Hong Kong as being a hub, where metal could be traded for the region,"
=================== Update links below
The idea of a substitution account is simple. Instead of converting dollars into other currencies through the market, depressing the former and strengthening the latter, official holders could deposit their unwanted holdings in a special account at the IMF. They would be credited with a like amount of SDR (or SDR-denominated certificates), which they could use to finance future balance-of-payment deficits and other legitimate needs, redeem at the account itself or transfer to other participants. Hence the asset would be fully liquid.
http://www.piie.com/publications/opeds/ ... archID=854

Mr. North has validity to the contextual question of price correlations
http://www.garynorth.com/public/3416.cfm <---------- Facts
Increases in the supply of copper, lead, and zinc do lead to increased supplies of silver.
So keep things in order and i did see other metal markets moving but slowly it is.

Value considerations: http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/03/all-p ... on-on.html

Posturing: http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/e ... short.html
This process started to unravel last July. Much more than explanations provided by economic and rate expectations, the move has been too sudden and too large, and the most likely "real world" explanation is that the dollar has been caught (does this ring a bell) in a massive short squeeze as the liquidity pyramid has started to shrink.

This may shake some out since is your name on that Bar of said product? That will soon be found out is my thought on ownership issues. Wake up time indeed is coming and may not be as nice as this week since the World will move on anyway. The Kids in Washington need to make Adult decisions but they will we may assume live beyond the means. Mr. Obama will answer that question on his next national address to the Senate. I think we already know there bent of mind. Reminded as I have been also seek value added information also.
http://www.silverinstitute.org/mints.php
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorial ... /0903.html
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1251815214.php PoP

[John]

This morning on CNBC Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian got into a debate with
an economist about the stock market. The economist was saying that
things were great, and stocks were going to surge again, while
El-Erian expressed caution.

Then the anchor Joe Kernen came on and challenged El-Erian for being
so negative. El-Erian defended his views, and Kernen accused
El-Erian for being biased because Pimco is a bond fund!!!!!!!

(Bonds sometimes do better when stocks fall.)

It is beyond belief what airheads these people are.

John

[aedens]

I seen it also and the smart money is on Mr. El-Erian side. The Economist where positing tragectory recovery indications.
Mr. El-Erian has equity information on his side. His previous comment prior to the interview was sugar coated high from
stimulas money in context to pulled forward demand. The Bulls will posit the stimulus money has not fully gone through
the system. I would like to back up to the moment the numbers came out and the reaction to it. In my opinion it was a
ashen look on there face. The only thing that is certain are the consumers are being exterminated and the net
difference of creation to loss ratio will tear earning down in segments. What I know for certain if you look at copper, zinc
and metal production are moving up and to stress strongly to watch these componets very closely. Given the limited
uptick on these metal do guage them effectively and monitor closely. I assume current pressure on silver to tick up given current
sentiment, but I feel the market will let it drift down in context to supply reality. Overall, I feel Mr. El-Erian is correct
and given the numbers of dismissed workers and the actual numbers in hours worked tells more than the Bull's long term view which
is the real true story in real lives. I mentioned a few pages back looking in late October for a few concentrated Equity looks
but felt compelled to look in February. We are seeing some limited movement as mentioned in metals which will supply
at a measured pace and just as we are planning that supply valve will be turned off in a instant also. The market will be extremely
dangerous for Junior Market Traders and money never sleeps so be advised to the extreme risk reality. This in context
to what we have been conveying which is consumers base are being devastated and it will tighten its grip to cash flows and expected
bank implosions warned about. Small Business cannot get loans and SBA loans are just not there. This is a bear trap market in a
balance sheet recession since workers are not finding products to produce. If you see the news about service economy numbers
factors, walk away as soon and fast as possible and focus on content that people do produce only and supply chain value added
products to look at. Later, I will wait for silvel to adjust down to purchase as in delivered, and as for Gold which I have none I may even
consider it after this current political economy chooses sanity or insanity to fiscal reality. Some will convey your late on the mineral play.
Maybe....

This morning on CNBC Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian got into a debate with
an economist about the stock market. The economist was saying that
things were great, and stocks were going to surge again, while
El-Erian expressed caution.

Then the anchor Joe Kernen came on and challenged El-Erian for being
so negative. El-Erian defended his views, and Kernen accused
El-Erian for being biased because Pimco is a bond fund!!!!!!!

(Bonds sometimes do better when stocks fall.)

It is beyond belief what airheads these people are.

John

9/4/09 @23:45
On Que all as we trended: China signed an agreement to buy as much as $50 billion of International Monetary Fund notes, the first purchase of its kind, to help increase the Washington- based group’s resources.

The note-purchase deal enables China to take part in a $500 billion increase in the IMF’s coffers to which the Group of 20 industrial and emerging nations agreed in April.

Perception versus reality: http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/m ... &sn=Detail

The report notes that China's Central Television, the main state-owned television company, has run a news programme letting the public know how easy it is to buy precious metals as an investment.

1.Global policy rates will remain low for extended periods of time.
2.The extent and duration of quantitative easing, term financing and fiscal stimulation efforts are keys to future investment returns across a multitude of asset categories, both domestically and globally.
3.Investors should continue to anticipate and, if necessary, shake hands with government policies, utilizing leverage and/or guarantees to their benefit.
4.Asia and Asian-connected economies (Australia, Brazil) will dominate future global growth.
5.The dollar is vulnerable on a long-term basis.
William H. Gross

[aedens]

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/
The key improvement they see in the current data over that for the 1930s is an uptick in world industrial production, which has risen by about 2% (compared to peak output in April 2008) in the last four months from its low of 88%. This now puts it substantially above the comparable period in the 1930s, when by this stage industrial output had fallen to 81% of its peak.

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421


The only thing that is certain are the consumers are being exterminated and the net difference of creation to loss ratio will tear earning down in segments. What I know for certain if you look at copper, zinc and metal production are moving up and to stress strongly to watch these componets very closely.

Policy from EU and US have been talking to affirm trade barriers to not be a factor in policy forward and regulatory reform. Add value added content since I have not seen the result yet of there meeting.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-spine/bewar ... udices-ser Just as societies can be modern and not modern at the same time, any given political leadership can behave logically and illogically at the same time as well.

Current mindset: Spend within your means. We understood your statement to bend trends. I support the office first and whoever is in there the actions.
=====================================================================================
9/05/09
From Russia with love: Panarin compares Obama to former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev.

“Obama is “the president of hope”, but in a year there won’t be any hope. He’s practically another Gorbachev – he likes to talk but hasn’t really managed to do anything. Gorbachev at least had been a secretary of a regional communist party administration, whereas Obama was just a social worker. His mentality is totally different. He’s a nice person and talks nicely – but he’s not a leader and will take America to a crash. When Americans understand that – it will be like a bomb explosion,”
Panarin said, speaking to journalists during the unveiling of his book.
He goes on to suggest that the U.S. will cease to exist by June 2010.
There is legislation pending to give Obama the power to shut down the internet. Why?
Concentration camps are being built and staffed. Why?
The police state is growing larger, becoming more federalized and becoming much more violent. Why?
U.S. embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Why?
Connect the dots. “In my opinion, the probability of the US ceasing to exist by June, 2010 exceeds 50%. At this point, the mission of all major international powers is to prevent chaos in the US,” Panarin concluded.

[JLak]

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/
The key improvement they see in the current data over that for the 1930s is an uptick in world industrial production, which has risen by about 2% (compared to peak output in April 2008) in the last four months from its low of 88%. This now puts it substantially above the comparable period in the 1930s, when by this stage industrial output had fallen to 81% of its peak.

In the long term, production equals demand. Any mismatch is a result of creative financing and government manipulation, but the invisible hand cannot be fooled; the piper will get paid. If the demand isn't there, the supply is worthless. Therefore, this is not a useful sign of hope, but rather a sign of economic stagnation as any gap between supply and demand essentially represents a gap in innovative capacity, in this case at the macroeconomic level. If you ask me, this is the real tragedy; not destruction of demand and production, but the lack of innovation to replace it.

Oh yes, and another thing: AAAAAAaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?art ... PQ20090906
the term "useful idiot" comes to mind

[aedens]

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/
The key improvement they see in the current data over that for the 1930s is an uptick in world industrial production, which has risen by about 2% (compared to peak output in April 2008) in the last four months from its low of 88%. This now puts it substantially above the comparable period in the 1930s, when by this stage industrial output had fallen to 81% of its peak.

In the long term, production equals demand. Any mismatch is a result of creative financing and government manipulation, but the invisible hand cannot be fooled; the piper will get paid. If the demand isn't there, the supply is worthless. Therefore, this is not a useful sign of hope, but rather a sign of economic stagnation as any gap between supply and demand essentially represents a gap in innovative capacity, in this case at the macroeconomic level. If you ask me, this is the real tragedy; not destruction of demand and production, but the lack of innovation to replace it.

Oh yes, and another thing: AAAAAAaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?art ... PQ20090906
the term "useful idiot" comes to mind

Indeed your correct on that element and on lagging demand here in the States. And what do we make now?

He has never seen a free market in his life, just a mixed market corupt in percentages overall since blanket statements are always useless. The last one that reminds me last month were 2 girls where fined $50.00 for selling lemonade with no permit. I laughed at the wisdom of the age, and the Supervisor dismissed it, but did not dismiss the idiots, or make them pay it since it was reported more than one was present who wrote children's tickets which i did not laugh at. People vote some idiots in so it is just that. Idiots.... some cheerfull some useless.

Lately, in Texas
"I will wear it as a badge of honor that I was shouted at by people who oppose Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and children's health," Edwards said. The shouters, he added, did not speak for most of his constituents, but for "the Ron Paul libertarian position that represents 2 to 5 percent of the country."

What will these people do when there are two classes only since the division of labor is erroding faster than they can think, libertarian position I think not, the Senator is mistaken and a straw man attack which does declines his character not to say virtue if even that exists. Fiscal sanity, not blatant corupt bubble blowers and not the fiscal calvary rescue hyprocracy wasting capital they do not have called our tax dollar. Both party's are largly terminal now as is the consumer by percentage for the undetermined time frame, as we know since we can do the math and they do not care to change but defer it to another decade. Sorry, the World has another idea and is moving on that as we speak, we are not going to grow since name when any Government in history was profitable. Thousands of years it consumes the free market and scarce capital formation until colapse as we know. Capital moves were it is best treated and we know were that is now do we not? These people ignore for years and are years behind the obvious trends. I refuse to buy anything but basics until they fade away. Call it a technical market breakdown. Yes, it is Politcal Economy and the bear market data suggest that. I am comfortable to wait for equity purchases since it is narrow right now to my risk assesment.

Synonym for dictator and totalitarian is socialism. The planet is being bulldozed globally and economically as we speak and they need another 18 month's to eliminate recall rights on some contracts also for some Unions so they do not have to call them back. Where have the jobs went and why is the question the 95 percent who cannot seem to care. Nobody likes rude people so bloating size of Government and apparantly 95 percent do not like me either, since based on reason of a free market and a dead letter it appears bothers them. As I told Higgy "they knew this was coming" and the sheep deserve to be devoured but the level of coruption is staggering and unabated. Government cannot turn stones to bread is the lesson they will never understand.

[Rammstein]

There are some interesting comments following this article- though most are 2-3 days old now. I am curious to ask here though - Ok- China could have the USA by the short hairs on economic issues, and put us into the real nosedive. But, no matter what happens to China as exporter of goods, or holder of debt- they still have to feed their population. How well will China be able to feed itself if they put us down the crapper? I have seen no speculation about this issue anywhere. Are they stuck trying to keep us afloat just to keep the people full? anyone?? R.

http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/ ... lt_03.html

[aedens]

http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/ ... lt_03.html[/quote]

“BEIJING, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) may unilaterally terminate derivative contracts with six foreign banks that provide over-the-counter commodity hedging services, a leading financial magazine said.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... dens#p3649

Delay: http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 3735#p3798
For many decades they deny balance and they wonder why we discern that there cheerful to useful idiots may be there maximum liability when they awake.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/ne ... 81031.html <------------------ Here it is....
Reduce Levels of Outstanding Trades via Portfolio Compression. Market participants continue to reduce the number of outstanding CDS trades through multilateral trade terminations (tear-ups) which lowers outstanding notional amounts, reducing counterparty credit exposures and operational risk. Regulators have instructed firms to maximize the efficiency of trade terminations in CDS tear-ups and have begun monitoring the detailed results to ensure the fullest participation. <----------------- data? markit data strips
Yours Sincerely from the Senior Managements of:
Bank of America, N.A. HSBC Group
Barclays Capital JP Morgan Chase
BNP Paribas Merrill Lynch & Co.
Citigroup Morgan Stanley
Credit Suisse The Royal Bank of Scotland Group
Deutsche Bank AG Société Générale
Dresdner Kleinwort UBS AG
Goldman, Sachs & Co. Wachovia Bank, N.A.


Old news really in another day. Treasury has been heat mapping shorts in positions as money calls. This is
what the Adults have been waiting for in context to tearups. After these idiots get whatever they deserve
life can go on and the Credit markets can function. http://seekingalpha.com/article/160207- ... -waking-up
This may thaw some money to SBA and real funding that civilazation needs. Given the coruption that still needs to removed I kind of doubt it.

http://www.markitwire.com/overview.aspx
==========================================================================================================
Wed Dec 31, 2008 1:06 pm http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... t=27#p1920 <----- Welcome to the future.
===========================================================================================================
Fri Jul 24, 2009 8:32 pm
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... wall#p3798

Where are we now? Naked and short with complex firewall to avert jurisdictional disclosures.
Principal "our case" converted viatical to stock warrants after the federal judge said yep we will liquidate these global position since there in violation.
The fed know's what needs to be done on naked shorts on our call and those cowboys are incarcerated for covenant violation's.
Long story short two less bankers to worry about leveraging covenants.

Geithner comments today belate obvious dislocation and another layer of whitewash to OTC
acountablity. We where very early in the process to due process.
I do not have position to forward and given the scope of capital outlay in these derivatives markets.
The President did convey this dislocation earlier in a release.
Broader context: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=1793&hilit=scdo#p1793

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 1816#p2790

Delay: http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 1640#p3735
For a fuller treatment, and a discussion of who is being robbed by whom, see Murray N. Rothbard, Power and Market: Government and the Economy, 2nd ed. (Kansas City: Sheed Andrews & McMeel, 1977), pp. 120–21.
Higgy is correct,
Higgenbotham: The Fed can't guarantee any of this mess. Once investors get nervous about what the Fed can and can't do, at some point the credit and stock markets will panic. I'm guessing August on that, but who knows. -----> Investors overall need to grow up also.<------
http://suddendebt.blogspot.com/
History conveys: Syndicalism stays veiled from public discernment and will be rendered later for the purpose of Capital and Labor Responsibilities systemic misnomers. The Austrian’s call it the master builder dilemma and I agree to what I found to be painfully true in any context to date. To many items we do not need from market “global” saturation points and the loss of core sanity hinging on energy petro dollars losses which will sponge out base monetary supports as we have seen given the markets true exchanges noted to date. Basically the vanilla investors have wised up and moved elsewhere from equity it appears as such.

Tuesday, July 1, 1930: Dow 226.34 +7.22 (3.3%) Labor Secretary Davis says business is definitely turning up in the East, predicts reasonable prosperity within the next year. “People have learned once again that only work produces wealth.” <-------- Irony
Investor should hold banks in suspicion or downright contempt anyway. As always whose money did they seize and why be surprised by now.

Young Bull says run down and nail one, Old Bull said, walk and nail them all.
I will not be surprised to see bullion remaining in a secular uptrend. Add the yellow metal to your portfolios on pullbacks.

[Jason]

Bernie Madoff, born 1938, founded the Wall Street firm Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities in 1960, and was its chairman until his arrest in December 2008.

In 1962 a feeder fund began advising its clients about investing all of their money with a mystery man, a highly successful and controversial figure on Wall Street, Bernie Madoff. Nobody investigated Madoff in 1962 even though he was considered a controversial outsider at that time.

In the 1970s, Madoff claimed he had placed invested funds in "convertible arbitrage positions in large-cap stocks, with promised investment returns of 18% to 20%”. Nobody investigated Madoff’s abnormally high annual returns during the 1970’s.

In 1982 Madoff claimed his spectacular returns came from using futures contracts on the stock index, and then placed put options on futures during the 1987 stock market crash. A few analysts reported performing due diligence and had been unable to replicate the Madoff fund's past returns using historic price data for U.S. stocks and options on the indexes. Yet nobody investigated or prosecuted Madoff at that time even though many were suspicious.

This strange pattern of using “feeder funds” to keep clients at arms length and promising spectacular annual returns from various “proprietary secret” strategies persisted continuously throughout the 46 year period from 1962 to 2008.

John, with respect, please avoid repeating preposterous mantras like; “I frequently write on this web site about the lethal combination of nihilistic Gen-Xers, managed by stupid, incompetent Boomers. There's no better example of this than the way the SEC handled Bernie Madoff, the man who defrauded hundreds of investors of $65 billion”.

Generational Dynamics would be a much more powerful and useful tool if you dug deeper to focus on the generational changes in the organisation of the control systems of society, rather than sticking to a generation "blame-fest" theme.

Gen-X was born into a world where Madoff was already exalted as a leader. Madoff was Chairman of the NASDAQ in 1990, 1991 and 1993 – what generation promoted him to this position?

How could Gen-Xers have possibly investigated or prosecuted Madoff between 1962 to 1982 ?

Most of Gen-X were not even born when Madoff’s scams were already in play.
.

[John]

Europeans today are thrilled by the proposed takeover of Cadbury by
Kraft Foods. In the past, I have heard anchors on CNBC talk about
mergers and acquisitions as being the keys to a robust economy and
stock market, and it's widely believed that a return to M&A will be a
big part of any economic recovery.

This is a big part of the delusion of our time. A leveraged
takeover, if it goes through, could create billions of dollars of new
debt, which would be billions of dollars of new money to invest in a
stock market bubble. However, this merger will not result in the
manufacture of any new goods to justify that new money; hell, it
won't even result in any additional chocolate bars.

Any investor would have to be insane to invest good money in this
deal. And yet, insanity hasn't stopped anything so far.

John