Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Financial topics - Blame Madoff not Gen-X

Post by John »

Dear Jason,
Jason wrote: > Gen-X was born into a world where Madoff was already exalted as a
> leader. Madoff was Chairman of the NASDAQ in 1990, 1991 and 1993 –
> what generation promoted him to this position?

> How could Gen-Xers have possibly investigated or prosecuted Madoff
> between 1962 to 1982 ?

> Most of Gen-X were not even born when Madoff’s scams were already
> in play.
Obviously there are crooks in every generation, but the article
you're referring to was not about Madoff; it was about the SEC.

** Laughable SEC report on Madoff absolves SEC management of blame
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 06#e090906


According to the SEC report, there were no complaints to the SEC from
1962 to 1982. There was one complaint in 1992, and there were
numerous complaints in the 2000s decade. Most of the focus of the
SEC report was on the laughable activities of SEC personnel in the
2000s, and those activities were the result of the lethal combination
of nihilistic Gen-Xers being "managed" by stupid, incompetent
Boomers. That's just the way it is.

See the following:

** Markets fall as investors are increasingly unsettled by bad economic news
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 21#e071121


** The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... c#e080121c


** Reader comments on the Nihilism of Generation-X
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 29#e080129


** Boomers and Gen-Xers: Dumbing down IT
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... java080701


John
Jason
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Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2008 7:56 am

Re: Financial topics - Blame Madoff not GenX

Post by Jason »

Dear John,

Thank you for your thoughtful response. I did read all your links.

The “system” is failing, not Gen-X.

Example:

A man was arrested after he terrorised a 20 year old girl in the house next to mine.

The Gen-X aged police arrived within 5 minutes, found the offender hiding in another property, arrested and cuffed him and began a thorough search for any possible accomplices.

The offender was identified as an illegal immigrant, he was driving without a license, his car was unregistered and uninsured. He could hardly speak English and was going from door to door in search of gardening work.

What happened next is a joke. No fine, no prison, no deportation. Instead the offender was set completely free by the boomer judge… The system failed.

Back to Madoff:

Any organization like the SEC is not going to go around arresting and cuffing executives of multi-billion dollar investment banks just on unsubstantiated complaints, mostly from business competitors. This almost never happens in a free society, regardless of the generational timeframe.

Even the most persistent complainer, Harry Markopoulos, could only speculate that Madoff was probably running a ponzi scheme as he never had any hard evidence to support his claims.

Harry Markopoulos, a boomer born 1956, never even put his name or signature on his 1999 or 2005 complaints. Should the SEC act on anonymous, unsigned complaints?

Markopoulos later testified. "Government has coddled, accepted, and ignored white collar crime for too long, It is time the nation woke up and realized that it's not the armed robbers or drug dealers who cause the most economic harm, it's the white collar criminals living in the most expensive homes who have the most impressive resumes who harm us the most. They steal our pensions, bankrupt our companies, and destroy thousands of jobs, ruining countless lives."

There is no reward or witness protection for information on ponzi schemes. Why ?

If the system was serious a reward of 1% (of the ponzi) could be paid to any informant.

Perhaps GenX should fix this when they assume leadership roles in banking and finance.
.
aedens
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Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

Quotes from Sir James Goldsmith.
The idea is to create what is known today as efficient agriculture and to impose it worldwide. Let me just give you one [impact] of GATT on the third world. The idea of GATT is that the efficiency of agriculture throughout the world should …produce the most amount of food for the least cost. But what does that really mean? …What is cost? When you produce the intensified agriculture and you reduce the number of people on the land, what happens to those people?…They are chased into the towns. They lose their jobs on the land. If they go into the towns, there are no jobs, there is no infrastructure. The social costs of those people, the financial costs of the infrastructure has to be added to the cost of producing food.
On top of that, you are breaking families, you are uprooting them, you are throwing them into the slums. Do you realize that in Brazil, the favelas (slums) did not exist before the Green Revolution of intensifying agriculture.
In the world today there are 3.1 billion people still living in rural communities. If GATT succeeds and we are able to impose modern methods of agriculture worldwide, so as to bring them to the level of Canada or Australia, what will happen? 2.1 billion people will be uprooted from the land and chased into the towns throughout the world. It is the single greatest disaster [in our history] greater than any war.
We have to change priorities. Let’s take agriculture. Instead of just trying to produce the maximum amount for the cheapest direct costs, let us try to take into account the other costs. Our purpose should not be just the one dimensional cost of food. We want the right amount of food, for the right quality for health and the right quality for the environment and employing enough people so as to maintain social stability in the rural areas.
If not, and we chase 2.1 billion people into the slums of the towns, we will create on a scale unheard of mass migration – what we saw in Rwanda with 2 million people will be nothing — so as to satisfy an economic doctrine. … We would be creating 2 billion refuges. We would be creating mass waves of migration which none of us could control. We would be destroying the towns which are already largely destroyed. Look at Mexico, Rio, look at our own towns.
And we are doing this for economic dogma?…What is this nonsense? Everything is based in our modern society on improving an economic index…The result is that we are destroying the stability of our societies, because we are worshiping the wrong god… Economic index.
The economy, like everything else, is a tool which should be submitted to, should be subject to, the true and fundamental requirements of society.
This is the establishment against the rest of society… I am for business, so long as it does not devour society…[But] we have a conflict of interest. Big business loves having access to an unlimited supply of give away labor.
In every developing nation, you have the same problem. You have a handful of people who control everything, the oligarchs. The poor in the rich countries are going to be subsidizing the rich in the poor countries.
You cannot enrich a country by destroying the health of its population. The health of a society cannot be measured by corporate profitability.
We have allowed the instruments that are supposed to serve us to become our masters.
“Now, you realize that salaries in the States – earnings, weekly earnings, hourly earnings over the last 20 years – have already dropped about 19% in real dollars. It’s already been a massive decline and that is why the so called recovery – which is a recovery of economic indexes – hasn’t got the feel good factor because people’s salaries have gone down. They’re gonna go down much more. It’s only beginning and the reason is very straightforward.”
“When you manufacture something, anything – this table – you have a value added. The value added is when you take the raw materials and you manufacture a product. Value you add is known as value added. And that is shared between capital and labor. And the whole division – the sharing of that – has been the subject of massive debates for generations. How much should go to capital? How much should go to labor? You’ve had strikes, you’ve had lockouts, you’ve had political debates.”
“All of a sudden, by creating a global marketplace for labor, by creating circumstances where people are making the same product with the same technology for the same capital and the only variant is cost of labor, you are shattering that – shattering the way you share the value added and that means that you are destroying the basis on which we’ve been able to create an equilibrium and have a stable society.”
===========================================================================================================
Inflation was never the issue Deflation is. As mentioned Bulldozing. You Voted them in, Your Slaves of your own devise.
http://www.alanwattsentientsentinel.eu/ ... 92007.html

Neolib economics has most still believing that The Love Of Money Is root of all good. Lambs to the Wolves. Ask your Senate who is in control?
Now you understand the division of labor needed the Austrian's called for. Congress will take your money and there is nothing you can do about it.
As we reminded it was never about the taxpayer anyway. The epistemological foundation's are already set. Brick by brick the deflation cycle will
ensue so they can lay the new dollar on your bank acount. They want change on the left feed by taxpayers and change on right to maintain the status qou.
Tell ne what has been done? Bread from stones from the Government now pointing the finger at you for more money they do not have anyway?
The division of labor builds society from within as in level market value. Unbalances are created for control only.

The West caved into using taxpayers money to bail out banks killed by similiar derivatives. The Fed and US Treasury are resisting a Freedom of Information Act by Bloomberg which wants to name and shame the derivatives winners. China watched and learned not to reward the derivative bandits who behave like assasins and create weapons of mass financial destruction ( to use the words of Buffett and Soros among others). The biggest derivative winners include JPM, GS, and Barclays. China did engineer a better solution for a new world money system simply by facing down the derivative crooks. By the way, currency crashes have more to do with failed corporatism models than the FX boys.

For many decades they deny balance and they wonder why we discern that there cheerful to useful idiots may be there maximum liability when they awake.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/ne ... 81031.html <------------------ Here it is....
Reduce Levels of Outstanding Trades via Portfolio Compression. Market participants continue to reduce the number of outstanding CDS trades through multilateral trade terminations (tear-ups) which lowers outstanding notional amounts, reducing counterparty credit exposures and operational risk. Regulators have instructed firms to maximize the efficiency of trade terminations in CDS tear-ups and have begun monitoring the detailed results to ensure the fullest participation. <----------------- data? markit data strips
Yours Sincerely from the Senior Managements of:
Bank of America, N.A. HSBC Group
Barclays Capital JP Morgan Chase
BNP Paribas Merrill Lynch & Co.
Citigroup Morgan Stanley
Credit Suisse The Royal Bank of Scotland Group
Deutsche Bank AG Société Générale
Dresdner Kleinwort UBS AG
Goldman, Sachs & Co. Wachovia Bank, N.A.


Old news really in another day. Treasury has been heat mapping shorts in positions as money calls. This is
what the Adults have been waiting for in context to tearups. After these idiots get whatever they deserve
life can go on and the Credit markets can function. http://seekingalpha.com/article/160207- ... -waking-up
This may thaw some money to SBA and real funding that civilazation needs. Given the coruption that still needs to removed I kind of doubt it.
Krugman is the worst of the lot: Answer me this: if gold metal was a commodity, what is it doing on the balance sheets of a central bank?

Lately, in Texas
"I will wear it as a badge of honor that I was shouted at by people who oppose Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and children's health," Edwards said. The shouters, he added, did not speak for most of his constituents, but for "the Ron Paul libertarian position that represents 2 to 5 percent of the country."
What will these people do when there are two classes only since the division of labor is erroding faster than they can think, libertarian position I think not, the Senator is mistaken and a straw man attack which does declines his character not to say virtue if even that exists. Fiscal sanity, not blatant corupt bubble blowers and not the fiscal calvary rescue hyprocracy wasting capital they do not have called our tax dollar. Both party's are largly terminal now as is the consumer by percentage for the undetermined time frame, as we know since we can do the math and they do not care to change but defer it to another decade. Sorry, the World has another idea and is moving on that as we speak, we are not going to grow since name when any Government in history was profitable. Thousands of years it consumes the free market and scarce capital formation until colapse as we know. Capital moves were it is best treated and we know were that is now do we not? These people ignore for years and are years behind the obvious trends. I refuse to buy anything but basics until they fade away. Call it a technical market breakdown. Yes, it is Politcal Economy and the bear market data suggest that. I am comfortable to wait for equity purchases since it is narrow right now to my risk assesment.

Synonym for dictator and totalitarian is socialism. The planet is being bulldozed globally and economically as we speak and they need another 18 month's to eliminate recall rights on some contracts also for some Unions so they do not have to call them back. Where have the jobs went and why is the question the 95 percent who cannot seem to care. Nobody likes rude people so bloating size of Government and apparantly 95 percent do not like me either, since based on reason of a free market and a dead letter it appears bothers them. As I told Higgy "they knew this was coming" and the sheep deserve to be devoured but the level of coruption is staggering and unabated. Government cannot turn stones to bread is the lesson they will never understand.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ed ... -too-late/
As for the children wanting the UN for direction. Grow up there a waste of capital and unworthy other than bloviated spectacles, basically
emotional blackmail money to pacify there avarice.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co ... n-see.html
Mere politic's for crowd control.
China is saying many things which are true.
They are also omitting many things that are key to the cause of our financial problems. They bought the silence of a succession of US political administrations over their blatant currency manipulation in support of trade subsidies, including the outright contributions to Clinton and Gore, and the cronyism with Bush.
China is a significant part of the problem, and like so many dogs that Wall Street helps to set up to further their gains, this one refuses to wag its tail on command. The blowback on the US dollar will be significant.
As like they didn't already know this.
Last edited by aedens on Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The Grey Badger
Posts: 176
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 11:50 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by The Grey Badger »

Aedens: what you're saying about agriculture is something the developed nations,or at least England, went through in the 17th Century. Back then they were called Enclosures and were driven by the landlords, who found it more profitable to chase off the subsistence farmers who were their tenants and enclose the land for such uses as raising sheep for wool. It caused the same sort of hardship you described today. Fortunately, we still had an entire continent the displaced peasants could be shipped off to.

OTH, if you look at the lat Roman Republic, the citizen-farmers were caught in a double pincer. The men were supposed to fight in the Legions, but those had been tied up in first the Punic wars, then the conquest of Greece, until Gaius Marius decided to recruit soldiers from the inner city and actually pay them instead of depending on a citizen levy. Meanwhile, the great landowners, now with a flood of slaves from the conquered lands as their labor force, snapped up the economically marginal farms and enclosed them as the great plantations of the period, known as latifundia. Writer after writer railed against the evils thereof, but it was so much more profitable ....

So whatever the Green Revolution and the World Bank are doing, and I agree they're doing a lot of this, they're neither the first nor the most original nor the last.
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

The Grey Badger wrote:Aedens: what you're saying about agriculture is something the developed nations,or at least England, went through in the 17th Century. Back then they were called Enclosures and were driven by the landlords, who found it more profitable to chase off the subsistence farmers who were their tenants and enclose the land for such uses as raising sheep for wool. It caused the same sort of hardship you described today. Fortunately, we still had an entire continent the displaced peasants could be shipped off to.

OTH, if you look at the lat Roman Republic, the citizen-farmers were caught in a double pincer. The men were supposed to fight in the Legions, but those had been tied up in first the Punic wars, then the conquest of Greece, until Gaius Marius decided to recruit soldiers from the inner city and actually pay them instead of depending on a citizen levy. Meanwhile, the great landowners, now with a flood of slaves from the conquered lands as their labor force, snapped up the economically marginal farms and enclosed them as the great plantations of the period, known as latifundia. Writer after writer railed against the evils thereof, but it was so much more profitable ....

So whatever the Green Revolution and the World Bank are doing, and I agree they're doing a lot of this, they're neither the first nor the most original nor the last.
Agree,
Mostly just a conveyance since Hadrian had as a pagan more sense than our current intellectuals today on management issues since really his wall asserted trade and control to markets for really the benefit of in and out of the wall, that choice was theres on either side to balance and needs from what I read.
He warned if he had to come back really your position as adminstration was over and your head was in a vase mailed to Rome for confirmation that the interal problem was repaired foremost. From Solon to whoever we see the facet of working from the inside with capital than today's so called culture and ethos. The devision of labor is what the Austrian's understood to free trade. Also contract and law is the credit freeze today. Economics and finance are the weapons of control. Reading todays Economist's and hedge fund managers is no different. As for today disconnects is like Alfred marshall and the bent of minds of his student Lord Keynes. As we are reminded by Mises
It is characteristic of current political thinking to welcome every suggestion which aims at enlarging the influence of government. Inflation can be pursued only so long as the public still does not believe it will continue. Once the people generally realize that the inflation will be continued on and on and that the value of the monetary unit will decline more and more, then the fate of the money is sealed. Only the belief, that the inflation will come to a stop, maintains the value of the notes. If the practice persists of covering government deficits with the issue of notes, then the day will come without fail, sooner or later, when the monetary systems of those nations pursuing this course will break down completely. The purchasing power of the monetary unit will decline more and more, until finally it disappears completely. The most serious dangers for American freedom and the American way of life do not come from without. What is needed to prevent any further credit expansion is to place the banking business under the general rules of commercial and civil laws compelling every individual and firm to fulfill all obligations in full compliance with the terms of the contract. If you have to convince a group of people who are not directly dependent on a solution of a problem, you will never succeed. Only to bureaucrats can the idea occur that establishing new offices, promulgating new decrees, and increasing the number of government employees alone can be described as positive and beneficial measures. The issue is always the same: the government or the market. There is no third solution.
After over 30 years in capital markets my self the theme is never different from Thucydides. Men aim at certain means and the Senate today are no different.
The President's past or future, or lack thereof, speech will determine the direction of capital for some time. Data is fragile as is History interpetation's but really it is clear what is going on and the Market will decide. I have not checked consumer credit numbers from the FED but I know without looking what direction we are going anyway. They know what they done. As a result, while attempts to clean up and recapitalize the US and European financial systems make sense, and are needed to support any eventual recovery, this will not immediately stop the process of financial contraction and economic decline. Fiscal stimulus similarly can soften the blow of the recession but will not directly address the underlying problems which they harvest on our future.
Regards...
http://slopeofhope.com/2009/09/the-true ... class.html

According to a recent Gallup Poll:

"Baby boomers' self-reported average daily spending of $64 in 2009 is down sharply from an average of $98 in 2008. But baby boomers -- the largest generational group of Americans -- are not alone in pulling back on their consumption, as all generations show significant declines from last year. Generation X has reported the greatest spending on average in both years, and is averaging $71 per day so far in 2009, down from $110 in 2008....

Gallup finds significant declines among all generations in average reported daily spending in 2009 compared to 2008. Given that consumer spending is the primary engine of the U.S. economy, it's not clear how much the economy can grow unless spending increases from its current low levels. But spending may not necessarily be the best course of action for baby boomers as they approach retirement age and prepare to rely on Social Security and their retirement savings as primary sources of income. Indeed, the two generations consisting largely of retirement-age Americans consistently show the lowest levels of reported spending. As reminded seek value added and remembered - "But you, go your way, and rest; you shall rize for your reward at the end of days"
Last edited by aedens on Tue Sep 08, 2009 9:25 pm, edited 5 times in total.
John
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Deflation and the velocity of money

Post by John »

-- Deflation and the velocity of money

I've been writing about the deflationary trend for six years, and the
deflationary spiral since 2007. I still receive e-mail messages from
people who disagree with me on this point, even when they agree with
other things.

An article in today's WSJ shows that the deflationary spiral is
continuing, caused by a reduction in liquidity, caused in turn by a
reduction in the velocity of money:
WSJ wrote: > As Liquidity Drains, So Does Inflation Risk ...

> In fact, whether by accident or design, some liquidity already
> seems to be draining away. M2 money supply, a measure that
> includes time deposits such as certificates of deposit, has fallen
> for four weeks in a row, at a 12% annualized rate, according to
> Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg.

> A separate measure by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,
> called MZM and designed to better gauge broad liquidity, has
> fallen at a 16% annualized pace in that time.

> At $8.3 trillion and $9.5 trillion, respectively, both money
> measures still are near records. But money velocity, or the speed
> with which cash is spent, is declining. ...
> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125244910968793841.html

Image
The graph shows that the money supply increased during the massive
credit bubble of 2003-2007, but has been falling sharply since the
beginning of the deflationary spiral that began in August, 2007.

This measure of the money supply actually ties together monetary
policy with considerations from generational theory.

During a generational Crisis era, people become risk-averse, and stop
spending or lending money. This lowers the velocity of money,
causing deflation (rather than inflation).

As the crisis continues, people will become even more risk-averse,
and the velocity of money is going to go even lower, causing further
deflation. It's still my expectation that the CPI will fall by 30%
in the next few years, despite bailouts, stimulus, and quantitative
easing.

John
mannfm11
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Housing bubble

Post by mannfm11 »

John, this is something I wrote that someone posted on this site. http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1349

The date on this blog was August 29, 2006. Since I have posted a pile of stuff dating the bubble from 1995. The prime evidence is found in new home sales, which peaked in 1977 an 1978 and never exceeded that mark until I believe 1997 and didn't fail to exceed it again until 2008. I had many arguments about this in late 2007, when the bottom in housing was repeatedly called with home starts and sales in excess of all time prior to 1997 records. The 1977 and 1978 records were set in the midst of a huge boomer coming of age population boom along with millions speculating in housing as a hedge against rampant CPI inflation. Some of it was due to the advent of insured FNMA and FHLMC mortgages which allowed for 95% financing.

The source of most of my information about housing was written by one Doug Noland of Prudent Bear. Doug wrote a damning piece in 2000 on Franklin Raines. In fact, the piece was a speech he made to a financial market group, I believe in October of that year. Doug claimed all along that the GSE's were the source of the financial bubble that was brewing at the time. For years he posted a section in his weekly writing called "California Bubble Watch" and one about the GSE's and their expansion of their portfolios along with the mortgage application indexes. This was only a surprise to those that were stuffing trillions in their pockets.

My main point here is that your post is something that validates what I have been contending since 2007 at least, that the bubble began in 1995. It really began before that, when FNMA securitization allowed for massive raising and issuing of mortgage funds. Nolands contention was that the GSE's and the Fed were the John Law paper machine that created the world stock bubble.

Yogibull? Yogibear? the gig is up mannfm11
NEW 8/10/2006 4:04:35 AM
I’m waiting for the Yogibear to come back. The short post We can’t save everything was the lightening flash to the thunder I am about to write about. Time to switch back Yogi.

There is mention of the housing market and the building inventories around the country. This is the tip of the iceberg. I am assisting my mother in her rental portfolio, of which I believe the peak income from which was about 2002. The recent vacancies have been tragic and the applicants we are getting are so beaten up credit wise that I am not seeing even honest applications. 3 of the last 5 applications I have taken have been people in certain stages of eviction. These are older homes, but they are in good shape in the North Dallas suburban region. They are not slum properties.

Everyone is all in. 10 years ago everyone was all in and they created a bunch more everyones by lowering the lending standards, eliminating down payments, coming out with high LTV B & C paper which served to fill the pockets of mortgage brokers, dilute the market and put more high risk people into homes.

What is left? What is left are people that can barely rent. Some of them make pretty good money, but it goes out the window to the point they cannot keep up their rental payments. There is a big storm brewing and the housing slowdown is only the tip of the iceberg.

But it is the iceberg as well. While the country could get through a typical housing slowdown, not this one. The industry is out of tricks. This industry funded the recovery we saw out of the bursting of the stock bubble and kept credit flowing. It stopped the deflation many of us feared was starting by creating collateral for more credit. But, the resale market is gone.

Who are they going to resale to? If they are expecting the people I am seeing apply to rent homes to step up and buy, they have another thing coming. If they are expecting the people renting to buy, they just might, but it will force the landlords to sell their property as well. This isn’t taking houses off the market, it is putting them on the market.

I checked the evictions posted on the JP courts dockets. Strangely enough, FNMA was posted as the plaintiff on several of them monthly. I find this interesting as FNMA isn’t shown to own that many homes in Collin County. But, what are they doing as landlord? Are the evicting foreclosures where people are refusing to move out? Or, are they evicting people on rental homes that socalled investors are letting go back?

As I started out, this is a deep subject. The next step is do people give up their homes or do they give up their nights out on the town? Do they pay their credit cards or their mortgage? The time of paying their credit card with their mortgage is behind us now and when these limits are maxed out, the card payment or the mortgage goes. We are about to see selling to get out from under a thing of the past, as few homebuyers put any money down as they didn’t have any money or at least the conventional down payment and thus are under water without roughly a 10% appreciation over what they paid. Here the new homes have stolen the market and I sense the new home builders can even cut their prices if things get dire. In fact, I sense we are going to see some wholesale discounting as builders are going to be forced to lessen their exposure and their debt levels.

There is a very small pool of available new buyers left. This is in housing and I think it is in other forms of real estate as well that are about to really be impacted as well. Remember, as someone already posted, we haven’t seen the 10 year bond rate move much from where it has been the past few years, maybe 75 BP from its mean of 2004/2005. I recall in the late 1970’s rates moving 75 BP in 2 or 3 days. This isn’t a rate induced slowdown, but a supply on the long run against demand on the long run slowdown. This is a market that is collapsing under its own weight.

You guys are about to see what real deflation is. Housing is by a massive amount the largest industry in the United States and probably the world. What is supplies is a huge portion of the ground up demand for the other goods and services bought and sold worldwide. You shut down housing, you shut down lumber, concrete, steel, copper, roofing and appliances to a great extent. Here then you shut down the industries that these industries are customers of. Realtors drive used Cadillacs instead of new ones. I recall seeing back in the 1980’s slowdown a long term realtor that was probably a millionaire at his peak sacking groceries at one of the local supermarkets, a guy that was a brand name in town when I was a kid. Others went just flat bust. The fringe business went down the drain. Mortgage banking, a huge business now that has hundreds of thousands of high paying jobs is threatened to where it has to shrink and those that are left are making a fraction of what they did.

The other end is the flow of funds from housing to enable people to buy other goods. Remember, housing was the credit card that allowed many to float through the last downturn and made the last downturn hardly a downturn at all. What happens when people have to shop at Walmart or pay their house payment? If they don’t go to Walmart, the associated overstocked manufacturers worldwide have their goods stack up. If they don’t pay their housepayment, the banking sectors and GSE’s have to tighten their credit standards to absorb the losses and most likely start by tightening up credit they can pull in, mainly credit cards. This shuts Walmart and its associated overstocked suppliers as well.

People are all in this game. Look at the tape of the stock market. I wrote about the Dow a few months ago. I believe at that time 21 out of 30 stocks were under their price at the peak. Of the 9 that were over, I think 4 or 5 of them are starting to break down in the form of MMM, BA, CAT and most likely C. Despite high oil prices, XOM hasn’t done that well. Watch companies like LU, SUNW, CSCO, ORCL, MSFT, INTC, GE and a few others that made up the top 10 to 20 highest cap value stocks and see where they stand. That was what the holders of mutual funds were holding when this thing started down in 2000. You know I can name more and I know you can too, but this small group of stocks made up probably 30% of the portfolios of all mutual funds combined and the stocks that have done well weren’t even in the portfolio. These people are stuck and they have been joined by even more fools trying to push a peanut up a mountain with their nose.

How broken is the stock market. John Templeton said a few years ago it was broken and I agree. Until valuations change, it is permanently broken, as the real rate of return on the broad market is at best 1% above inflation. These earnings growth projections are foolhardy and false if one wants to take them as a trend. The excess of the past few years, some of which was due to every company in the world taking their write offs when things were bad, thus having the natural snap back, but the rest is going to be snapped back as well. How can someone sell out with a 90% loss in so many stocks?

There are a lot of dominos lined up. Maybe the rest of the world does well swapping their dollars back and forth between themselves while the US languishes. At some price, money comes to buy property in the United States and that property will be purchased in dollars. But I sense the banks will draw in the money and those countries will be left without exchange as well. I doubt many people can get signature loans on their credit outside of the typical credit card. I doubt if housing goes the way I think it appears to be going, the mortgage insurance business is going to stand and it will take with it all the derivative postions that are used to support it. So will FNMA, JPM, WFC and FHLMC. And what about the Mexican labor that has been employed to build so much of this stuff? Do they starve in a country they went to find work or do they go home? If they stay here, maybe the government feeds them, maybe not. If they go home, that leaves even more vacancies in the housing market. That might solve the illegal alien problem that congress cannot agree to solve.

Long run supply in any product is the marginal cost of building one more unit. Once the bidding war stops, prices fall to the level of marginal cost. This leaves a lot of open shops that go unvisited, kind of like the small town merchant when Wal-Mart came to town. We are going to see a situation where land prices fall, dropping marginal costs even lower, leaving those that held lots that were so dear at the top with overpriced building sites they need to unload. This is a $10 trillion wreck in a group of assets that are very illiquid, unmovable and only marginally useful in the sense that you can only live in one at a time.
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Deflation and the velocity of money

Post by mannfm11 »

Money doesn't have a velocity John, lending does. What has really occurred is there has been a shrinkage in the amount of credit available in the system, not due to it being available, but due to insolvency of the system and there being a shortage of good credit risks. The biggest credit risks are outfits named Citicorp, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, General Electric (upgraded by Goldman, but for all practical purposes bankrupt to the tune of hundreds of billions) Federal National Mortgage Corporation, Freddie Mac and the credit insurers American Bankers, MBIA and AIG. These are the money machines and the too big to fail black holes who are hiding losses in their back rooms while they exist on Federal life support. All the money is rushing into these black holes, mainly the US debt, federal reserve money derived from the purchase of bonds and mortgages.

I learned about money velocity in money and banking, which was a bull crap course you had to take in business school that relayed one truth, that banks created money, not the Fed or the government. They never taught me that though banks created money, they never created the interest necessary to pay them back. It spoke of money velocity as if it was something that consumers did by hoarding dollars,when in fact it was a creation of the expansion of credit instead. Only expanding credit speeds up the rate at which money circulates, as giving a group of people immediate access to new money to spend throws in this new money with the pool of existing money that is already being spent at a certain rate. The latest news is that consumer credit was paid down a record amount, at a 10% annual rate. This is a consumption of credit or a reversal of an extention, thus the money in circulation to spend has instead disappeared into the credit black hole. The repayment of debt is a reversal of credit extention as is the cancelling of credit lines in general.

There needs to be an exit to this. We are being placed into a modern Egypt where people were made bond servants. The government, instead of declaring the lenders insolvent is placing the debt on the backs of the general population. They have the guns.
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Read this John, Housing bubble circa 2000

Post by mannfm11 »

http://www.safehaven.com/article-37.htm

Doug Noland November 3, 2000


The GSEs (like Pavlov's dogs) aggressively expand holdings at any sign of financial distress, a situation that has basically remained in force throughout much of the past two years. This is a key example of how, particularly in the present environment, underlying (and intensifying) systemic problems actually foster only heightened excess that manifests into increased system-wide money and credit creation. As the GSEs aggressively purchase mortgage securities and other debt instruments, mortgage rates (and market rates generally), as we have seen, decline sharply. This "intervention," importantly, sets off a series of processes. First of all, open market purchases of mortgages, mortgage-backs and other debt securities provide the previous holders (banks, Wall Street firms, hedge funds, etc.) liquidity to pay down debt and/or to purchase other securities (credit card and other asset-backed securities?). Forceful mortgage purchases by the GSEs also encourage the leveraged speculators to take positions, while it also leads to active speculative and hedging-related trading in the interest-rate derivative market. These are powerful liquidity creating mechanisms within the financial system.

And, importantly, sharply lower mortgage rates also incite a refinancing boom, a particularly potent force of "reliquefication" currently, after homeowners have experienced significant capital gains from extraordinary housing inflation. In 1988, it was estimated that the average individual refinancing her mortgage extracted $15,000 of equity to "buy a hot stock - take a vacation." This provided incredible, if unappreciated, fuel for what became an historic speculative bubble that pushed the economy over the edge into full-fledged historic "bubble" status. Ironically, the present "reliquefication" is directly in response to the collapse of the Internet/telecom/tech bubble fueled by the 1998 "reliquefication." What a dysfunctional system…

"Speculation in real estate and securities was growing rapidly, and a very considerable part of the supposed income of the people which was sustaining our retail and other markets was coming, not from wages and salaries, rents and royalties, interest and dividends, but from capital gains on stocks, bonds, and real estate, which men were treating as ordinary income and spending in increasing degree in luxurious consumption. The time for us to pull up was already overdue…we could prolong it for a time by further bank expansion and by further cheap money policies, but only at the cost of creating a desperately difficult situation at a later time."

"It must be said, by the way, that the widow's mortgage itself was being undermined by the extravagances of the period from 1924 to 1929. Excessive money developed speculation in every field, and very specially in the field of real estate…Real estate mortgage bonds were issued at a tremendous pace. Real estate values soared and real estate mortgages of all kinds were so rapidly multiplied that in 1932-33 the widow might well have wondered whether she would not have done better to sell her mortgage in 1929, buying stocks with the money…methods which they had found conservative and safe for forty years or more had not protected them or their clients when the whole fabric of real estate values had been undermined, and when they had given guaranties for a multiple of their capital

http://www.safehaven.com/archive-2.htm

Doug Noland Archives

http://www.safehaven.com/article-209.htm

Franklin D Raines, Director of Central Planning

For those that don't know, Raines ran FNMA and bankrolled Obama and was listed as one of his top economic advisors
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Re: Financial topics

Post by mannfm11 »

JOHNThis is what drives me crazy. Here's a guy from a Washington DC economic think tank. He's done the research. He's established that the real estate bubble is correlated to the technology bubble. He offers no opinion at all as to what happened in 1995 to cause both bubbles to start growing; indeed, he has no idea why the bubbles occurred at all, and why they began in 1995, as opposed to 1985 or 2005. He doesn't even pretend to have the answers to these questions.
This is from your post on the home page John. This is a good question. Robert Rubin of Goldman Sachs and Citicorp took over treasury in 1994. According to Greenspan, Rubin convinced him of some stuff that just wasn't true. Rubin and Raines created the housing bubble. When the rush to treasuries and GSE paper along with Greenspans actions took place in 2001 to stem the effects of the mortgage bubble created stock bubble, conditions were ripe for housing to take off. Remember, if you scrape 1999-2000 off the Nasdaq, it is really nothing more than a swing between 1000 on the bottom and about 2700 on the top, which in an alternating bull and bear market over 13 years or so isn't that extreme. Baker doesn't answer these questions because he really wants to put this stuff on the conservative side of the equation. The housing bubble averted a depression in 2000, as the S&P 500 was 300% the top value of 1966 and 1929 and debt in the USA was already higher than the Great Depression maximum. I read every blog that has something to offer and it amazes me how ignorant the writers are of what really determines the present economic growth, private credit creation to the point that bubbles and over investment occur. Instead of there being excess capital as this guy mentions in one of the articles he commented, we are actually in a situation where capital has been destroyed and the system is bankrupt. They spent 70 years lying about what occurred between 1920 and 1935 and they continue to cover it up. The whole mess is a flaw in big banking and socialist banking guarantees. It might lead one to question who the socialists are?
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