Page 196 of 2983

Madoff

Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:14 pm
by mannfm11
I thought you might enjoy this story about the SEC that relates to what you posted John

Which still leaves open the question of what the SEC was doing when it should have been making Madoff do the perp walk. We have the answer: the SEC was harassing us.

Yes, hard to believe that they would target your poor, innocent editor. And they didn’t, not directly anyway. Instead, they targeted one of our colleagues. This was a couple of years ago…when Bernie Madoff was at the top of his game.

We haven’t mentioned it in this space…on the advice of our lawyer. Judges don’t like it when you “try a case in public.” And the case still isn’t settled.

But we won’t discuss the merits of the case…only the circumstances around it.

This will help us understand what the SEC is really up to…and why the hope of regulating fraud out of existence is as vain and futile as trying to clear out a bar by using foul language.

Here’s what happened. One of our researchers discovered what he thought was a great investment opportunity. He called the target company and spoke to a VP in charge of public relations. What he heard convinced him that he was on to something, so he published a recommendation, sending a copy of it immediately to the company.

He got no response from the company. But a few months later, the SEC knocked on our door. What was their beef? That we had misled investors. How so? In our report, we told readers what the VP had told us. We carefully called it “insider” information…putting the word in quotes to let readers know it wasn’t the same as the forbidden ‘inside information.’ Anyone could have found out the same thing if he had just called the company, read the published reports, and put two and two together.

Our caution was lost on the SEC. They didn’t see the difference between “insider” information and inside information. What’s more, the fellow at the target company denied he had said what he had said. Curiously, he made no objection when the report was published; the objection came after the SEC started snooping around.

The SEC wanted blood. They thought they could get an easy win against a little guy in Baltimore. They wanted us to turn on our own associate…to stop defending him and cop a plea. Obviously, we couldn’t do that. We stood behind our man.

Then came a quirky turn of events. Both the researcher and your editor’s company were charged with what was effectively a new crime – a federal case, no less. The SEC, remember, is supposed to be protecting investors from stock fraud, manipulation, and ‘insider trading.’ But there was never any allegation of manipulating a stock or insider trading. Instead, the agency charged us with NOT having inside information. We never traded in the stock at all…or manipulated it in any way. So the feds alleged that we did not have any inside information to trade on…and that therefore our representation – of having “insider” information (in quotes!) – was a kind of fraud.

And the whole case turned on a telephone conversation between a stock market analyst and a public relations guy in a company. One said one thing; the other said another thing. Reporters make mistakes all the time; so do their sources. But this was the first time the government made a federal case out of it.

We believe our analyst. The SEC believed the other guy and spent millions trying to prove that our fellow lied. No one who bought the research report on the stock complained, let alone threatened a lawsuit. Prior to any SEC probe, refunds were issued to anyone who asked (most did not). Yet the SEC, protector of the public interest, spent years…and millions…on the case – while Bernie Madoff was stealing billions from his clients.

http://dailyreckoning.com/this-recovery-is-an-imposter/

I see someone questioned the Xers being involved in this. The SEC works like this. You get a job there as a lawyer and do investigation. You are careful to only investigate and prosecute those that you have no benefit in the future of being employed there. Clearly the ones doing the investigation are the Indians and not the chiefs. Madoff had connections all over the place and I am sure that there were plenty of outfits out there calling off any dogs that might bite him, as he was woven through the fabric of the entire industry. The posted article is merely one example of the SEC's selective enforcement. The current stock market is nothing more than wall street firms tossing stock back and forth as the trusts did in the 1920's to manipulate perceptions the market is going up. The Xers in this case were looking for the next job to get them ahead. Goldman pays $1 million a year, not $100K plus benefits.

Re: Deflation and the velocity of money

Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2009 7:47 pm
by aedens
This has not even started yet. The G20 will use all reserves "confidence" called the hum of the printing press to survive soft triggers to bend the trend is Adults buying more time on the tax payer dime. Deflation is when no one can find "limited" a job since there already gone on "off ramps". Tax payers just absolutely do not get it John. No one will borrow since that last dollar buys your last loaf of bread. Millions and millions have no work in context to either side of the ponds, No job to find. We lost hundreds of thousands of jobs in our area alone and great news was in 3 years we will have 5000 new positions just announced. Never have there been such a epic disconnect for reason they cannot as a majority fathom. 5:1 market employment ratio workers us to them ad hoc lost and 30% nominal wage loss they want or we will blindly see soon by Asymmetrical functions i.e market asset leveling "Deflation". Global bulldozing to fill in market craters they produced and managed. Wake up America geez it sickening anymore. I see the VoM pegging up 150 precent nominaly much later from the bottom as new Global stimulas partners constructing maybe sane market puts. Coming from current levels by 4Q 2010. I cannot factor in second and third derivatives yet and I do think they cannot either yet, so I will nuetral until EoQ1 to look for value added.I am not adding Equity positions. Subordinate equity bond holders feet may get wet sooner than they will admit by summer so will look later also. Staying tax free vehicles and select Bonds for now. Lives to the woodchipper based on debt which is claim's to future labor. SWF are pressing hard assets at another 1/3 leg down and people wonder why the Fed cannot M2M and where not even at peak default or close yet. I was hopefull tearup's listed would thaw SBA Funding soon and it may on good models. But there is to much malinvest to clear given GD spending trends, and Health Care since Pharma has solidified its posture to insert bio med so maybe there for value added.

We are seeing some limited movement as mentioned in metals which will supply at a measured pace and just as we are planning that supply valve will be turned off in a instant also. Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:54 pm
The market will be extremely dangerous for Junior Market Traders and money never sleeps so be advised to the extreme risk reality. Corporate is building balance sheets in cash not leverages given the short legs to supply side movement. Cluster regional plays are LEAN capital realities

http://www.barrick.com/ interem >1Q2010
"The transaction enhances Pascua-Lama's economics. The upfront cash consideration increases returns and represents an attractive source of financing for the project while still maintaining Barrick's upside on 100% of the gold and 75% of silver production at Pascua-Lama," said Aaron Regent, President and Chief Executive Officer.
Total cash costs per ounce is an non-GAAP financial measure and is calculated net of silver credits assuming a silver price of $12 per ounce and a gold price of $800 per ounce. See pages 33-34 of Barrick's Second Quarter 2009 Report.
We warned you: http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... +bar#p4106
http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalF ... 521690.php

Off ramps are GD investment aggragated "lack" demand : For simplicity I mean populate 40 30 20 10 models as we have done before. I am still enigmatic on
tipping points 80:20 outliers of the groups. IMO pain lingers, going to reread Minski again better than todays news anyway.

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:21 pm
by John
> TOKYO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Japan's core machinery orders fell a
> bigger than expected 9.3 percent in July, in a sign capital
> spending may stay weak in the coming months and drag on the
> world's No.2 economy as it crawls out of its deepest postwar
> recession.

> Wholesale prices also slid 8.5 percent in the year to August,
> matching a record hit in July, pointing to deepening deflation
> that could force the Bank of Japan to keep its ultra-easy monetary
> policy in place for a long time to come.

> http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsN ... 6920090910
Very dramatic.

John

Re: Madoff

Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 2:28 am
by Jason
mannfm11 wrote: I see someone questioned the Xers being involved in this. The SEC works like this. You get a job there as a lawyer and do investigation. You are careful to only investigate and prosecute those that you have no benefit in the future of being employed there. Clearly the ones doing the investigation are the Indians and not the chiefs.
Are you suggesting the Indians are in control of the SEC and not the Chiefs?

My experience with government departments is that all important decisions are made via the hierarchical structure. Only when the paperwork is ready does any action happen. The paperwork is only done after many meetings and approval is gained from the top. That is why everything takes so long.

Do you really believe the Indians (Gen-X or Millennial) at the SEC are acting outside the Chefs instructions? How long has this been going on ? What hard evidence do you have that supports this ? Who are these "loose cannons" ?

With the current level of unemployment in the Finance sector, exactly how many Gen-X employees at SEC will be parachuted into million dollar banking jobs this year, as you suggest ? Any names ?

The fact remains that Gen-X had little or nothing to do with Madoff and his 40+ years of ponzi scamming. Directly or indirectly. Trying to blame Madoff on “nihilistic Gen-Xers” is preposterous. Can you supply any hard evidence to implicate Gen-X in Mafoff's 40+ year ponzi career ?

Has Generational Dynamics become a “blame fest” where every major financial problem somehow has to be related to Gen-X and their supposed nihilism ? Does this simplistic cookbook view blind you from seeing any other reality ?

How would you explain the existence of highly successful Gen-X businesses like Google ?
.

Re: Madoff

Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 3:34 am
by aedens
Jason wrote:
mannfm11 wrote: I see someone questioned the Xers being involved in this. The SEC works like this. You get a job there as a lawyer and do investigation. You are careful to only investigate and prosecute those that you have no benefit in the future of being employed there. Clearly the ones doing the investigation are the Indians and not the chiefs.
Are you suggesting the Indians are in control of the SEC and not the Chiefs?

My experience with government departments is that all important decisions are made via the hierarchical structure. Only when the paperwork is ready does any action happen. The paperwork is only done after many meetings and approval is gained from the top. That is why everything takes so long.

Do you really believe the Indians (Gen-X or Millennial) at the SEC are acting outside the Chefs instructions? How long has this been going on ? What hard evidence do you have that supports this ? Who are these "loose cannons" ?

With the current level of unemployment in the Finance sector, exactly how many Gen-X employees at SEC will be parachuted into million dollar banking jobs this year, as you suggest ? Any names ?
The fact remains that Gen-X had little or nothing to do with Madoff and his 40+ years of ponzi scamming. Directly or indirectly. Trying to blame Madoff on “nihilistic Gen-Xers” is preposterous. Can you supply any hard evidence to implicate Gen-X in Mafoff's 40+ year ponzi career ?

Has Generational Dynamics become a “blame fest” where every major financial problem somehow has to be related to Gen-X and their supposed nihilism ? Does this simplistic cookbook view blind you from seeing any other reality ?

How would you explain the existence of highly successful Gen-X businesses like Google ?
.
Madoff is a symptom in Finance Business, there are many more.
"It is therefore clear that contrary to assertions by the parties involved in gold forwards, leases, swaps or other purely financial constructs based on gold yet to be produced - which in itself carries the risk of changing economies, political, environmental and a host of other imponderables - do carry an exponential risk factor. If, for any above reasons Barrick cannot service its delivery obligation to JPM, then JPM would be facing an insurmountable obligation to re-deliver the physical gold to the lender/lessor of last resort. An explosive short squeeze would probably tear apart the fabric of today's monetary system, as would have been experienced by the LTCM fiasco in 1999. It was only averted by the N.Y. FED blackmailing involved counterparties into a costly bailout of the renegade hedge fund. In the final review, one can only speculate that JPM may be held incommunicado by the PTB … and Barrick, too?"

- Dietmar Siebholz, 2003

They new Madoff was dirty so wake up. He was pocket change so who is keeping the Indians happy or the Cheif's? They do is, make a copy and kick it upstairs stamped recieved, collect bi weekly tax payer supported check, move along. Pay grade means that. SEC should be pillowed, terminated and law and contract enforced. Well our save face trading partners are just doing that. Maybe in two years you will not have to worry about your government departments protocol. Well half maybe, if where lucky we can keep the gatekeepers only. At times a blanket may be tossed, but usually not the case here so enjoy the free content from volunteers. Last spring we forwarded perhaps you, like I, find it richly ironic that members of the public still use your investment subsidiaries as a means to protect and grow their private wealth. I think you should promote the activities of these subsidiaries more widely. My idea for an advertising slogan: “When it comes to moral hazard, we’re Number One. We helped trigger the biggest financial and economic collapse in history through our imprudent lending and investment. Between 18 million and 30 million jobs throughout the world are almost certain to be lost. And more than 50 million jobs throughout the world are now in jeopardy. As a result of our investment expertise, we’ve lost billions, and those of us that still exist and aren’t owned by the taxpayer are technically insolvent. Now, how can we help you with your finances? In any event, this letter is also to let you know that now that you and your members, in collusion with your governmental paymasters, are offering negative real returns to cash depositors, I am withdrawing what remains of my funds since I can find altogether better opportunities for the preservation and growth of my capital within high quality pockets of the equity and corporate bond markets, and I can get sufficient “insurance” for my increasingly worthless fiat currency in the form of gold. I appreciate that the withdrawal of my funds may send you spiralling into nationalization. Sorry about that. In closing I will work for the common good in my Corporate Job hopefully long enough so you prove me wrong.
And we have have the same message. Generational Dynamics started on page one as a tool.

Goldman Sachs partner Sydney Weinberg was asked why his company had formed so many closed-end funds so rapidly in 1929. His reply was: “Well, the people want them”
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... t=27#p1920 Please feel free to value add observation's. I do not exist but to serve my brothers.

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 11:37 am
by freddyv
Great post of the housing bubble, John. I have always been rather perplexed when I hear people say that it started in 2003 when it is obvious that it simply went crazy starting in 2003 but started well before that.

On a different subject I want to quote Gene Inger today:
Gene Inger wrote: ...there has not been financial improvement or open credit; and the pubic is now better-educated in everything we warned of two years ago. That in itself is a restraint on ebullience; suggests a moment of reckoning with overpriced big-cap equities is forthcoming. Doesn’t have to be instantly; but it’s approaching.

I consider myself knowledgable in current events and the economic crisis in particular but every now and then I hear or read something that adds a new layer to what I already know. In this case it's the idea that the public is much more aware of what's going on and has shifted to a new stance of frugality. The average person may not get to what extent the powers that be (Hank Paulson comes to mind but he is just one of many) have picked their collective pockets through the various bailouts and stimuli but they do get that they have been had and that things are NOT getting better.

Like many who saw all of this coming I got overly bearish and made some mistakes but I have accepted that and moved on and will stay with what warned me of the coming bear economic crash: facts and data. There is no doubt that this is not over and that we are either in for a long period of underperformance or more likely, because of the recent runup, are due for the bear market to get back to the business at hand, that of destroying massive amounts of wealth as it teases people into buying the rallies and then descends to ever lower levels.

On the Dow Theory front the Transports finally confirmed the Industrials yesterday by closing at a new high for this secondary rally and I believe that it is once again off-to-the-races as the rally takes us to above 10,000 on the Dow on its way to closing that gap left open from July of 2008. My target is around 10,300 and if we get there very soon I see the shorting opportunity of a lifetime because that will put us in a similar position to April of 1930. This may sound crazy but I am now more convinced than ever that the Dow will retrace most of the way back to 1,000 (the highs of the previous bull market in 1966) over the next decade or two. It may sound crazy but when I look at the state of our economy, demographics, and what has happened to Japan over the past two decades it seems a lot more reasonable.

I base that predition on my observation that the stock market seems to have technical "needs" and that closing gaps appears to be like the force of gravity, weak on the smaller scale but overwhelming on the grand scale. I believe the market "needs" to close that gap and considering how much false wealth we have created throughout the world it makes quite a bit of sense that it will take a long, long time to destroy it. This market is in no hurry, to me it appears like a drawn out version of the 1929 to 1932 decline, but we'll see.

--Fred
http://www.acclaiminvesting.com/

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 11:44 am
by freddyv
For those who haven't seen it yet, Meredith Whitney is talking about another 25% drop in house prices and another leg down for stocks. IMO, Ms. Whitney is the single best Wall Street analyst out there if you are looking for what's coming in the near term.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32773345

--Fred

-- Bulls vs Bears, Shorts vs Longs, Principle of Maximum Rui

Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 1:45 pm
by John
-- Bulls vs Bears, Shorts vs Longs, Principle of Maximum Ruin

Intuitively, you would think that the bulls who buy and hold stock
("longs") and the bears who short stock are complementary in some
way. You would think that the bulls make money if and only if the
bears lose money, and vice-versa.

But that's not entirely true in a deflationary spiral. What's
happening is that there's less money in the world every day, and the
deflationary spiral pulls money from everywhere that money is
changing hands.

Thus, in the current situation, the bears are losing money because of
this new bubble / rally. Also, the bulls are staying in the market,
and they're going to lose money when the market plunges again.

During the bubble, hundreds of trillions of dollars of new money were
being create all the time. So everyone could make money.

But now that the bubble is leaking, all of that money is
disappearing, and the money is being pulled from every possible
source.

That's the Principle of Maximum Ruin, and it applies to both bears
and bulls in a deflationary spiral.

That's literally why stuffing the money into your mattress is the
safest thing to do. Keep the money out of play, where the
deflationary spiral can't get at it. That's the only way to stay
ahead of everybody else.

John

Re: -- Bulls vs Bears, Shorts vs Longs, Principle of Maximum Rui

Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 2:30 pm
by Higgenbotham
John wrote:-- Bulls vs Bears, Shorts vs Longs, Principle of Maximum Ruin

Intuitively, you would think that the bulls who buy and hold stock
("longs") and the bears who short stock are complementary in some
way. You would think that the bulls make money if and only if the
bears lose money, and vice-versa.

But that's not entirely true in a deflationary spiral. What's
happening is that there's less money in the world every day, and the
deflationary spiral pulls money from everywhere that money is
changing hands.

Thus, in the current situation, the bears are losing money because of
this new bubble / rally. Also, the bulls are staying in the market,
and they're going to lose money when the market plunges again.

During the bubble, hundreds of trillions of dollars of new money were
being create all the time. So everyone could make money.

But now that the bubble is leaking, all of that money is
disappearing, and the money is being pulled from every possible
source.

That's the Principle of Maximum Ruin, and it applies to both bears
and bulls in a deflationary spiral.

That's literally why stuffing the money into your mattress is the
safest thing to do. Keep the money out of play, where the
deflationary spiral can't get at it. That's the only way to stay
ahead of everybody else.

John
John,

I can see this in action in my current situation. Being short the stock futures at the present, I can see how the market draws the shorts in and destroys their capital. Perhaps the money that is lost gets "won" by the banks; however, they are black holes that will implode anyway. As of now, the stock futures have not advanced to my loss point of 10% of net worth, but they are close.

Another point would be that one of my premises was that the Fed could not contain the damage or extend this bubble much beyond certain natural or historical limits. As of now, this does not appear to be true and the bubble is continuing to extend. It hasn't yet gone further than I thought it might in price, but it has in time. I think all this means is that the Fed has really done a better job of facilitating maximum ruin than during past generational crises. I've never thought of it that way before, but it makes sense.

Re: Financial topics

Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 7:05 pm
by croumeli
I am new to this forum. I have to say this is one of the best forums I have been on lately.
Everyone here has great insight, and John you definitely need to be commended.

Anyway, I had some questions and I would like some more insight from all of you here. Let me begin that generally I believe with most of you here that we are in a deflationary spiral, but no matter how I look at it, I ultimately keep on concluding that what keeps the dollar valuable in my eyes is its “reserve” status.

In other words, had the US not had this "privilege", I believe we already would have been in a hyper inflationary state because no country in their right mind would choose to prop up our economy (i.e. China would not be buying our bonds). Our economy is being proped up by necessity to only preserve the viability of the currency itself.

Based on fundamentals, our whole economy right now is a huge Ponzi scheme. Bonds mature, and we pay off these bonds by selling new ones. In my eyes if countries did not need to prop up our economy our currency could theoretically crash overnight. So tell me what you all think, how hard is it to create a new super currency? What if China starts liquidating its US bonds? Would faith in the US dollar collapse and trigger a panic? Do you feel that inflation can take control if the US dollar loses its reserve status or continues to be politcally attacked? Sounds like many countries are calling for it (read article below). Your comments would be appreciated!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... p9VoPeHquI


UN Says New Currency Is Needed to Fix Broken ‘Confidence Game’

By Jonathan Tirone

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s role in international trade should be reduced by establishing a new currency to protect emerging markets from the “confidence game” of financial speculation, the United Nations said.
UN countries should agree on the creation of a global reserve bank to issue the currency and to monitor the national exchange rates of its members, the Geneva-based UN Conference on Trade and Development said today in a report.
China, India, Brazil and Russia this year called for a replacement to the dollar as the main reserve currency after the financial crisis sparked by the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market led to the worst global recession since World War II. China, the world’s largest holder of dollar reserves, said a supranational currency such as the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights, or SDRs, may add stability.
“There’s a much better chance of achieving a stable pattern of exchange rates in a multilaterally-agreed framework for exchange-rate management,” Heiner Flassbeck, co-author of the report and a UNCTAD director, said in an interview from Geneva. “An initiative equivalent to Bretton Woods or the European Monetary System is needed.”
The 1944 Bretton Woods agreement created the modern global economic system and institutions including the IMF and World Bank.