Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

We are not building runways.
We are watching a typhoon in process.

leverage concentration illiquidity

China is breaking, and I speak as someone who has been working with factories there since my first business trip in 1991. One factory owner, who was himself quarantined, told me Monday that he was authorized to start back to work March 1, but has no idea how many workers might show up. This is a hand made glass factory in Shandong Provence and requires highly skilled workers. Another, operating in the South where the spread is not so bad, says he can produce, but he can't get packaging, and transportation is very difficult, so he can't actually ship.

China has a vast internal supply chain of small producers of specialized products, or processes, that feed the larger manufacturers. These small businesses operate on thin margins and often are hand-to-mouth operations. They cannot afford to be without cash flow for weeks that become months....and they are already going bust. Once this thing plays out, getting back up to speed is going to take a long time.

This happened at the worst possible time. The country shut down 1/25 for CNY, with the expectation of returning to work 3 weeks later. It is now 5 weeks, and the 3/1 target the CCP set as a re-start date is next week. We shall see just how much production cranks back up. The American retail community expected their spring/summer orders to resume shipping 2 weeks ago. That is not happening, and even if production ramps up to 60% capacity (which it won't), regular shipping will not resume for a few more weeks. This most optimistic scenario is enough to have a big negative impact on U.S. retailers, many of whom are suffering badly already, and everyday that passes makes the situation worse, and more difficult to resolve.
Those things I know. Here is what I believe.

Q1 numbers will suck, and Q2 will be much worse. The market may bump along some, or may drop like a rock, but the trend for a while will be down. May be a long while.
I knew enough over 2 weeks ago to tighten stops on everything, and got completely stopped out Monday. Went short Tuesday.

Expect to stay short until I start hearing good news. tyler

thread: sogo
http://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?ke ... sf=msgonly
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... ult#p30127
Avarice the spur of greed.
April 8th 2024.
The judgement seal ends.
He is a just God.
My view only.

A from the grain colony.

essential conduits we already know

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... its#p36628

secure conduit zones for essential movements for now will have to surface
as known 2 year is now 2 month with ai product deploys
facility's gain share licensed application zones
as we discussed hayek and keynes differed on entrance point in the process
as dead wood in productive assets only

pelosi is a loss of time issue
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4754168/ ... ar-tactics
thread: gra
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronaviru ... onference/
https://postimg.cc/5HFdHvbg
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... gra#p50271
#$vxrt
opened small position given platform

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/white ... conference

pray or shut and get out the way with risk capital we saved
the warrants are fair trade in my view
get off the Offices ass and let them facilitate the conduits if needed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhaScQwkpx0

Set food and water before them, that they may eat and drink and then return to their master.

For in so doing, you will heap burning coals on his head, and the LORD will reward you.…

John wrote:** 26-Feb-2020 World View: Chain reaction

Higgenbotham wrote: > The reason this is working is because the book is thin, people are
> nervous, and big traders are trapped because there is no liquidity
> in the book. One big trader tonight drove the market down 8 points
> to get out of approximately 1000 lots. I covered a short right at
> the low of that move.

Words like "trapped" raise a red flag for me.

A couple of days ago, I heard an analyst on TV say something about
airline stocks falling because they were owned by hedge funds that had
to sell them off to cover shorts.

I favor the "chain reaction" theory of when a stock market panic
occurs. It happens when many traders simultaneously are forced to
sell to cover shorts or loans. When one trader is forced to sell, the
stock prices go down, resulting in a margin call for other traders,
creating a chain reaction and vicious cycle.

The Fed is prepared to flood the banks with liquidity when something
like that is happening, but if the chain reaction is international,
the the Fed won't be able to stop it.

Your post from last night outlines what appears to have happened today. I think there was a lot of forced selling today.

Also, the long term trend of the market was broken in several ways today. One way in which it was is there were several charts of the Dow presented by various analysts from the 2009 low where the trendline under the lows from 2009, 2016, and 2018 was broken today.

agree air pockets we seen before
reality and supply chain
tbill only out for now

the dead cat by the tail as discussed
friday or what can carry forward
maybe 29xx is a pivot
no clue
you got a better tech view than myself

respect and fear rule the realm

** 27-Feb-2020 World View: Black Monday

Higgenbotham wrote: > Your post from last night outlines what appears to have happened
> today. I think there was a lot of forced selling today.

If we follow the same pattern as in 1929, then Monday will be a
bloodbath ("Black Monday").

John wrote:** 27-Feb-2020 World View: Black Monday

Higgenbotham wrote: > Your post from last night outlines what appears to have happened
> today. I think there was a lot of forced selling today.

If we follow the same pattern as in 1929, then Monday will be a
bloodbath ("Black Monday").

It may well be forced selling; it depends upon just how reckless the trading became; time will tell. The $VIX got to 39.16 yesterday so there's a good dollop of fear as well. My own take is that is the underlying main cause of the drop is an old man called Sanders is "Bern-ing" the market. People want out at this level because they don't see the economy under President Sanders justifying sky level stock pricing. And Trump hasn't fixed the swing states so Bernie's talk is attractive. There might be a Black Monday or equivalent next week, but my mind is focused upon asking where will the bounce come? Soon or much further down?

I increased my trading volume from 1 lot per trade to an average 5 lots per trade tonight. Results for the night above are $24,662 on 218 round turns.

So if I had started with a 7K account two days ago, that would have about doubled to 14K the first night, then after adding a few more thousand last night, it could have about doubled again tonight. Overall, the account would be up about 7 fold in 3 days.

The markets continued to be illiquid tonight. The monkey wrench to this is when the Fed and the administration along with the PPT cobble something together to juice the market (maybe over the weekend to be announced Sunday night and/or Monday morning) I can kiss this free market trading environment goodbye and the struggle to survive will continue.

The S&P futures are down near the low of the night. There is a large buyer down at 2901. I suspect the market might hold around that level, then the Fed and PPT may step in to prevent a crash.

But I've been talking about a low for a few days and have been wrong.

Out of all the folks I follow, Carl has been the most accurate these past few days:
https://twitter.com/CarlFutia

Higgenbotham wrote:The S&P futures are down near the low of the night. There is a large buyer down at 2901. I suspect the market might hold around that level, then the Fed and PPT may step in to prevent a crash.

But I've been talking about a low for a few days and have been wrong.

Out of all the folks I follow, Carl has been the most accurate these past few days:
https://twitter.com/CarlFutia

There seems to be a growing consensus that the market will stabilize around 2900 to 2975. I am not sure what to think. If a strong contributing reason is fear of a Sanders presidency then that fear will persist while his star shines. Of course people may be realizing that the market is much too high; probably double fair value, and treble a PE ratio below 10.

The board is correct since this not our first rodeo with the Bernites moving in with speakers ability to understand reality as we are.
The democrats are a lost cause and blue islands slipping into the insolvency rhetoric that will be save me first and only.
thread: gra

Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:30 pm
Just the natural result of socialism in decline. The USSR became plagued in the 1970's by hordes of men who decided sitting in parks and drinking vodka all day was preferable to working. - Same shit, different day. It will all change when the welfare and the pensions dry up. The ACA tax is the last hard stop they have to the narrative only idiots on parade.

The Andropov plan was a success in terms the demsheviks will never learn. The atheistic pagans looted all they could and the KGB
just waited it out and as we noted the percentage that just changed the nameplate on the same desk later.
We sent malboro reds and levis as currency as barter to bury the frozen dead.

These damn fools have no clue what was or can be.

I will buy some warrants as indicated for this measure and maybe save a few thinking lives.
As we noted here the march sweeps will be another chapter as we witness times change men do not.

Capitalism has moved more people out of poverty in the last 200 years than any other economic system devised by man. In the last 100 years socialism and communism has killed 100+ million people.