Financial topics

[richard5za]

Another possibility is that Trump and the Fed pours enormous liquidity into the market to stabilise it. That may or may not work. Refer to the points John made on interlocked global debt. The liquidity may go into safe havens instead of stocks: Have you been watching gold?

I have 2 year options on gold miners and they are still near what I paid for them over the last 5 months. If they do print lots of money I expect gold to go up and gold miners even more, with options leveraged on that. The Fed likes to talk about "their box of tools", like they can go after long term interest, or short term interest, or quantity of money, etc. Really they have just one trick, they can make new real money. At some point this will cause the prices for gold, silver, oil, etc to go up. So I like the companies with these things in the ground as the value of the stuff in the ground goes up percentage wise more when the base thing goes up. Imagine that now the company spends 90% of the price of the commodity to get it out of the ground and to the market, if the commodity doubled then their profit margin goes from 10% to 110% of old price (assuming their costs fixed). Then I like options because really the options seem cheap because robots can borrow money cheaply and buy the stock, a put, and sell me the call. So in some sense the cheap money gives me low priced options. That I am using the cheap money to speculate on the value of money going down makes me happy. When enough people do this I think the dollar cracks.

I also have puts on S&P500. These are doing well recently.

To understand the robots selling me options see:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/o ... ptions.asp

Thanks V, yes I am also invested in gold and gold miners (heavily) for about 14 months now and done very well, and I'm not selling; there's a long way up still to come. These are not options. I use options for short term trading, both calls and puts.
I bought an uncomfortable amount of silver metal and am trying to work out if its worth keeping? I am currently showing a small profit; it might be better putting it into something else. US dollar cash is another crash investment of mine; not to make money but to lose less

[richard5za]

The Fed's research department said:

"A solution some countries with high levels of unsustainable debt have tried is printing money. In this scenario, the government borrows money by issuing bonds and then orders the central bank to buy those bonds by creating (printing) money. History has taught us, however, that this type of policy leads to extremely high rates of inflation (hyperinflation) and often ends in economic ruin. "

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publica ... ional-debt

I think they are close. It is not really that they pick that solution, it is just that for any given day the easy out is to print more money. At some point the market sort of realizes that bonds and dollars are not he smartest place to be. As the market exists bonds and dollars the central bank, day by day, prints more and more. The government needs someone buying bonds so it can stay in operation. You get a death spiral. The more people exit, the more the central bank prints and buys bonds. The more the central bank prints, the more people exit.

This has happened more than a hundred times to other currencies and I expect it will happen to the US dollar too, the question is just when.

At some point it must happen to the US dollar. And when the waterfall crash does come I think that in the initial period the dollar will hold its value. But in crash times markets need to be watched like a hawk and move your savings from one asset to another as appropriate. We are heading into the unknown!!

[aeden]

When the .gov retards close synthetic positions the crack up boom will end.
Best spot to check other than futia or deathcanary is https://www.ajewandhismoney.com/uncateg ... ver-ratio/

You are going to get screwed so hard you will be cross eyed for a another decade.

botslayer is in hibernation as should you be in cash

[vincecate]

I bought an uncomfortable amount of silver metal and am trying to work out if its worth keeping? I am currently showing a small profit; it might be better putting it into something else. US dollar cash is another crash investment of mine; not to make money but to lose less

Long term I am confident silver will do well and that cash will do poorly but I don't know exactly what long term means.
Since my name is on this list of 155 Euphemisms for "printing money", you might not be surprised that I don't keep any cash.

https://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2010/1 ... money.html

[aeden]

Joe Biden is Jeb Bush plus dementia. Trump will be far less charitable with his symptoms than I am. C

[aeden]

I have six months metal since after that its game over. Smart play having boat accidents some contend.

Waaaaaay back on the forums we noted a hedge since it was fact they would F#^k it up
since op able archer and the binchem discussions from the experts.

As in the day of Noah.

Conclusion: The national debt is high by historical standards—and rising. People often assume that governments must pay off their debts in the same way that individuals do. How­ever, there are important differences: Governments (and their economies) do not retire, and governments do not die (or don't intend to). As long as their debt payments remain sustainable, governments can finance their debt indefinitely. And if a government prints money to solve its debt problem, history warns that hyperinflation and financial ruin will likely result. While debt in itself is not a bad thing, it can become dangerous if it becomes unsustainable.

Our God is Justice on His Terms alone and we warned they will be washed away. So be it as be found helping the meek, the infirm as to be another
lost generations as all are and shall be.
What Little horn rises is another Day as the others are torn out by the root.
Yea they think we the problem.

We will see who survives .gov democides at the real harvest table soon enough with out the screeching demsheviks pissing themselves.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ve-updates

[vincecate]

Much of the stock market price is really from companies borrowing money and doing share buybacks. If there is uncertainty about getting parts from China, they may put a halt to their buybacks to shore up their finances for possible hard times. This may have started. A slowing of the share buy backs would be plenty to pop the bubble.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/buyback ... hange.html

[aeden]

I find that accurate. If your in that segment you listened to fools.
I had written my other Broker and the reply was two days later we do not even pretend to care
since they had risk metrics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJhFz9jaoM0

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=OrgzhWRo

[aeden]

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... ker#p44688
i think the term lately H
we discussed term structure and
thread: vix

it detonated right on the marin as always

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads ... origin.png

Although we expect broader markets to stabilize in coming weeks,
VXX is likely to stay near current levels.

This week will expose some carnage as always and we will check for node failures.

Has the market capitulated. NO

Over $3 billion notional of futures were being dumped in the precious metals market between 2:30pm and the 4pm close
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLM29.NYM?p=CLM29.NYM

[aeden]

He didn't have to, he just had to wait until they destroyed themselves.

Joe 6 pack goes to 12 pack pays and still a pack a day with two dollars a gallon.
Effective tax for civilization to exist is still twenty percent.
Just like before the zones health care system collapses and we can give you the exact year.