Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Well, in the 1920's, I noticed that the stock market bubble started at around 1924. It only lasted about 5 years before collapsing, while ours lasted about 12 years; wonder if that means this is going to last even longer than the depression.

I suppose we can have a debate as to when all of this will happen, but sooner or later, it will.

The standard political definition of Gen-X starts them in birth year
1963 or 1964.

But from the point of view of generational theory, what matters
is when a child is old enough to know what's going on, and is
able to adopt generational attitudes and behaviors, usually
around 4-5 years old.

I count the beginning of the Awakening era with Martin Luther
King's 1963 march on Washington, and the Gen-Xers as starting
from birth year 1959.

Whereas the transition from Recovery to Awakening is usually
fairly sharp, occurring when the first wave of Prophets become
old enough to start shouting, I consider the transition from
Awakening to Unraveling to be more gradual. So I would place
the Gen-Xer birth period as ending around 1980-ish.

I would put the crisis era as beginning in 2000. However, there
are two distinct sub-periods within the crisis era. Matt Ignal
has called the early period the "post-unraveling period," because
it combines many awakening era trends with crisis era anxieties.
However, once the regeneracy occurs, leading to total panic,
then the actual crisis (crisis war) begins.

It's actually possible for the crisis to begin before the crisis
era. If the crisis does not begin within the crisis era, then
the society enters a distinctly different fifth turning.

I've posted the following a couple of times before, but it's
worth repeating.

Here are two places where I've described the process of identifying
generational eras:

** "International business forecasting using System Dynamics with generational flows."
** http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2 ... asting.pdf


** Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... cast090503

Here's a bare bones outline of the guidelines that I use in
determining generational eras (or turnings). These guidelines seem to
work in all the cases I've seen.

It's important to remember, when reading these guidelines, that
generational eras are determined not by specific events, but by the
"mood" of the great masses of people. It's worthwhile pointing out
that there are two distinct methods for determining where a particular
country is at a particular time: (1) By number of years since the last
crisis war; or (2) By turning-specific events. In practice, it's
easiest to use the two methods together, especially for historical
periods in countries where little information is available.

In Generational Dynamics, here are some guidelines for estimating
turnings and turning boundaries:

• The Recovery/Austerity/High period (first turning) begins just
  after the smoke clears from the explosive climax of the crisis war.
  It's "Recovery" for the society as a whole, as it rebuilds from the
  crisis. It's "Austerity" for the survivors, who are still traumatized
  and will devote their lives to keep it from happening again, and it's
  a "High" for those in the new the Prophet generation, born right after
  the war, who feel contempt for the austere rules.
• The Awakening period (second turning) begins 15-18 years later, when
  the Prophets begin to make themselves felt. An Awakening can be
  identified by "Awakening-type" events that are caused by a political
  struggle between the war survivors and the Prophet generation. Typical
  Awakening-type events are: Riots and demonstrations for individual
  rights; greater prominence for gender issues; pro-war or anti-war
  demonstrations – whichever is the opposite of what their parents
  prescribe. If there is violence in this period, it's "low-level
  violence," punished by police action in specific cases.
• "Awakening crisis": The Awakening seems almost always to climax with
  an event that defines a winner between the older and younger
  generations. This is sometimes called a "bloodless coup" or a "velvet
  revolution" or an "internal revolution." Examples where the younger
  generation won are: resignation of Richard Nixon; replacement of
  Second Reich with Weimar Republic. Example where the older generation
  won: Tiananmen Square massacre. I believe that the victory of the
  older generation is a bad thing for a country, and foreshadows a civil
  war in the crisis period.
• The transition from Awakening to Unraveling (third turning) to
  Crisis (fourth turning) is a gradual one, without clear
  boundaries. Basically, the austere rules set down in the first turning
  begin to unravel almost as soon as they're enunciated. The Unraveling
  officially begins 40 years after the end of the last crisis war. The
  "Awakening crisis," which can occur before or after the Unraveling
  period begins, is a much more important marker than the Unraveling era
  itself. After the Awakening crisis, the austere rules that were set
  down during the first turning really begin to unravel, and total
  craziness sets in. Typical unraveling type events are: willingness to
  compromise to the point of appeasement; economic bubble.
• The Crisis Era (fourth turning) is in two parts that have to be
  separated: before and after the regeneracy (where the real crisis war
  begins).
• The Crisis Era - Part I -- the "post-unraveling period." This begins
  when the survivors of the last crisis war all disappear (retire or
  die), all at the same time. This is about 55-60 years after the end
  of the last crisis war. This would be amended if the crisis war begins
  earlier than 55 years after. Typical Crisis Era - Part I events are
  immigration laws, signs of xenophobia including maltreatment of
  foreigners, emphasis on stereotypical gender roles.
• The Crisis Era - Part II -- begins with the regeneracy, when the new
  crisis era really begins. The “regeneracy” is a series of events
  (think of the 9/11 attack) that unify the people, and “regenerate”
  civic unity for the first time since the end of the last Crisis
  War. Typical Crisis Era - Part II events are: financial crisis, total
  war.
• A fifth turning occurs if the Crisis Era goes by with no crisis
  war. This is a distinctly different era from the others. Typical fifth
  turning events today: Suicide bombers.
• From the point of view of determining long-term (multi-saecular)
  generational timelines, the only important date is the date on which
  the first turning begins.
• It's impossible to enter a fifth turning except from a fourth; or a
  fourth turning except from a third; or a third turning except from a
  second; or a second turning except from a first. Thus an Awakening era
  country that experiences an unexpected genocidal invasion will still
  fight the war as an Awakening war; the country will NOT transition
  into a Crisis era.
• However, it is possible to enter a first turning from another
  turning when a massive population relocation occurs, destroying the
  generational relationships that existed prior to the relocation. This
  sometimes happens to a country with a huge unexpected invasion by
  another country. This is called a "first turning reset," and it's
  quite rare.

Every society and nation experiences a genocidal crisis war every
70-90 years, with a new one starting just around the time that the
generations of survivors of the previous one all disappear (retire or
die), all at once. This is a basic component of generational theory.

John

According to an article that I recently read, the amount of "mass incidents" in China for 2011 was nearly 200,000, which seems an almost unimaginable number to us. I would expect it to rise still more in 2012, considering that the economic collapse is now sparing them as many analysts and pundits believed. i've lost count of how many people who said that China's economy would be larger than ours within 10 years.

Something else I'm watching is: how much is their official military budget going to increase? I believe their new fiscal year starts in April, so we'll find out then. The real budget will be a lot higher, probably around 70-80 percent higher, but it at least will give us some kind of clue as to where they stand.

In real terms, our budget is about 3-3.5 times higher than China's. I know that's not how it appears, but that's what my calculations tell me.

Here's a simple analogy for what happens when you're a Boomer
technology expert working for an incompetent Gen-Xer manager.

Suppose you're a Boomer talking to your Gen-Xer boss about how
to drive a car.

The Gen-Xer will know how to put the key in the lock, start the
car, and drive it. He'll even know how to put gas in the car.

You say to him, "Don't forget to change the oil every 4,000 miles!"

The Gen-Xer doesn't know what you're talking about, and gets angry
because you're arrogant and you don't respect him. He tells you that
modern cars need gas, but not oil.

The Gen-Xer assumes that since you're a Boomer, you're talking
about really old cars that don't exist anymore. Not only that,
he assumes that since you're talking about really old cars,
you really don't know how to drive modern cars, that don't
require complicated things like changing the oil. As a Boomer,
your knowledge is old and out of date.

The Gen-Xer may fire you right there, because you obviously don't know
how to drive a car, and because you don't respect him.

Furthermore, he won't ever change the oil in his car, because he'd
rather risk destroying his car's engine than doing something that a
Boomer told him to do. That's Gen-Xer nihilism.

If he hasn't previously fired you, then one day when his transmission
fails, and someone tells him that it was because he never changed his
oil, he'll blame you for the problem, and find a way to really
get even and screw you.

Gen-Xer and Millennial technology experts working for an incompetent
Gen-Xer manager will experience most of the same problems.

Honestly, that kind of sounds like the Pointy-Haired-Boss in the Dilbert comics. Would he be more typical of a Boomer manager or an X-er manager?

I would imagine that's why people just kept their mouths shut and went along, because the X-er managers would probably not only fire them, but do everything in their power to make sure that they could never find another job after they left the company. I've heard of bosses like that, although I've never worked for one.

Dear Trevor,

Trevor wrote: > Honestly, that kind of sounds like the Pointy-Haired-Boss in the
> Dilbert comics. Would he be more typical of a Boomer manager or an
> X-er manager?

> I would imagine that's why people just kept their mouths shut and
> went along, because the X-er managers would probably not only fire
> them, but do everything in their power to make sure that they
> could never find another job after they left the company. I've
> heard of bosses like that, although I've never worked for
> one.

The analogy I described is based on experiences I've had with four or
five incompetent Gen-X managers. It's never pleasant.

I understand your point about incompetent Boomer managers, but I
think the dynamic is different from the one with incompetent
Gen-X managers. I'll try to think how to modify the car driving
analogy so that it represents the Boomer case.



http://www.dilbert.com/



John

For the Boomer managers, here's an idea:

The manager has no idea how to change the oil in his car. He used to depend on silent managers to do it, while he complained endlessly about it, but now he's in charge.

What happens can depend on what kind of employee he has.

If it's an employee that has some integrity, he shows him how to change the oil in the car in order to make it run again. Throughout this process, the Boomer continues to lecture and complain about how he's doing it wrong, that it should be done a different way, etc. With every instruction given, he argues and complains, but after it gets done, might show an inkling of gratitude.

If, however, the employee is an X-er that utterly loathes Boomers, it would be a different story. He may decide to either not help him at all, or give him incorrect instructions that would end up destroying his vehicle, because after all he's a Baby Boomer and deserves whatever happens to him.

After it's over, he doesn't have the intelligence to realize what the X-er's just done to him and drives off, not realizing that in a very short period of time, he's going to be utterly screwed.

As an X'er myself, I know that if a Boomer boss were professional and polite in asking me to show him/her how to do something that I were highly competent in doing, I'd be happy to show him/her how to competently do it — and feel that many other X'ers would be the same regarding the situation. I think where the "bevy of nastiness" comes in regarding X'er behavior is that with X'ers, you seem to have a real, um, bevy of nasty people that are numerically significantly out of proportion to what is found in other existing generations. I utterly know: I've regrettably encountered some of them, and have been on the receiving end of some really pathetic bee stings a few times from some of them in workplace environments.

Much of this stems, I feel, from their growing-up experiences, in where they likely received somewhat of a hands-off parenting style coupled with an increasingly narcissistic, mean culture (alongside peers who would be plenty mean and shallow as well). And, in some cases, X'ers growing up got the "X'er-on-steroids" treatment: a very toxic growing-up environment of broken families; or an inner-city crime-ridden neighborhood; or perhaps who were kids who grew up in a nice suburban neighborhood and had non-divorced parents but who were mercilessly bullied for some reason; etc. It all has left a mark, and casts a real shadow over human (and organizational and financial) relations today, I feel. —Best regards, Marc

Well, I'm referring to the really vicious X-ers who decided to take a sledgehammer to our financial institutions.

Speaking for myself, I've known decent people in generation X and they're often easier to talk to than Boomers. Unfortunately, when they are vicious, they can be far worse.

The car driving analogy that I posted represents, I believe, the
dynamic when there's an incompetent Gen-X manager and Boomer employee.
How does that scenario change when there's an incompetent Boomer
manager?

Suppose you're talking to your incompetent Boomer boss about how
to drive a car.

The Boomer will know how to put the key in the lock, start the car,
and drive it. He'll even know how to put gas in the car.

You say to him, "Don't forget to change the oil every 4,000 miles!"

The Boomer doesn't know what you're talking about, but he blows
you off and ignores you. He tells you that he knows all about cars,
and they need gas, but not oil.

One day his transmission fails, and he blames you for not telling
him more clearly that he needed to change the oil. Or, he says
that he knew all along that the oil had to be changed, but
he thought you were taking care of it.

The above scenario is roughly the same, no matter what generation
you (the employee) are in.

This scenario differs from the incompetent Gen-X manager scenario
in these ways:

• Unlike the Gen-Xer, the Boomer does not get angry and accuse you
  of not respecting him. This anger about respect is pretty much
  a Gen-X thing, in my experience. I've had Boomers get angry at
  me, of course, but I can't recall ever having a Boomer accuse me
  of not respectiving him.
• The incompetent Gen-Xer sees the suggestion to change oil as
  "endlessly dissecting," to use Higgie's words, and is angry and
  hostile at the suggestion. The incompetent Boomer sees it something
  irrelevant or mistaken, and simply ignores it.
• Neither the Gen-Xer nor the Boomer puts oil in his car. However,
  the Boomer's failure is due to passive arrogance and stupidity, while
  the Gen-Xer's failure is due to actively refusing to do something that
  a Boomer suggests.
• The Gen-Xer looks for a way to get revenge; the Boomer does
  not.

The next to last point is highly relevant to the financial crisis. As
I've been writing for years, the 1990s tech bubble was caused by
passive stupidity of Boomers, making investments in dotcom companies
that didn't make sense, while the credit bubble of the 2000s was
caused by purposeful fraud by Gen-Xers.

I was having a conversation with a Millennial software engineer the
other day, and it reminded of what a pleasure it is to be talking to
someone who's competent. He was showing me the software he had
written, which was pretty cool, and at different times I would tell
him how cool it was, or I'd ask him why he didn't do it a different
way, or I'd "endlessly dissect" something to understand it better, or
I'd mention something that I've done in the past, or I'd make a joke
about something.

It's a real joy to have such a conversation with a competent
Boomer or Millennial software engineer or manager. It's a lot of
fun, and everything goes well.

But as soon as you're talking to a Gen-Xer, everything is a land mine.
If you suggest a different approach, then you're insulting him and
don't respect him. If you ask about details, then you're "endlessly
dissecting." If you make a joke, or you brag about something you've
done, then you get screamed at for being arrogant. It's a total
nightmare.

Here's a good question that's going through my mind: How do Gen-Xers
ever manage to get along with one another with those attitudes?

If I use the Breitling commercial as a template, then I have to assume
that Gen-Xers screw with one another all the time, and take pleasure
in doing so, but then recover quickly when they get screwed with,
because they expect to be screwed with.

John