Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Tonight was one of my more difficult nights of trading. I traded through the Asia and Europe opens, smashing the bots for $1,100 as shown below. I could have easily lost money trading tonight, as there was no consistency in the market. However, it was my guess that the market would try to test 2880 at least one more time.



I will resume watching the market tomorrow at the cash open. I'm getting ready to buckle in for a potential crash and may not trade at all after tonight. We'll see how it looks in the morning.

People are predicting 3.1 mil new unemployment filings Thursday morning and 15% unemployment number Friday morning:

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Mish estimates 23%:

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/upcom ... 2004302337

If Mish is more correct (which I expect) then people will be surprised at how high the unemployment has gotten. Could start a selloff.

Update: Someone pointed out that they ask people if they are actively looking for work. Some people in lockdown may say, "I am in lockdown", which can count as a "no" and so they don't count as unemployed. So it is very possible that while Mish's 23% may be the real number, the report Friday may be far less. Hum.

Many small businesses have had their business model destroyed. They can no longer make a profit. Having the Fed buy junk bonds mean they will sell junk bonds. Once they have the cash their best move after getting the money from the Fed (whichever program they used) is to pay themselves a big salary or bonus and then declare bankruptcy. After many people will be surprised that giving money did not keep the businesses open. The Fed is thinking like 2008 where cash/liquidity could get banks past their problem but today these businesses have a solvency problem and giving them cash does not fix that. For a large company like Boeing when they sell $27 billion in bonds it might fix it, but for a little restaurant their best move will be to take the cash and close up.

If the Fed loans money that it does not get back that is definitely inflationary.

John wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 3:04 pm No one knows the day or hour. The angels in heaven don't know, and the
Son himself doesn't know.

In human form, pre-Resurection, your comment about the Son is correct. But time is part of God's creation and God lives outside of time, and is not constrained by time. God's sees from the beginning to the end of time. So Go d knows exactly what will happen in the future in every detail. With this updated theological information, and your ability to read the signs of the times, you could apply to be a prophet!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4w_ZatNePWY&app=desktop

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Ixu2oyFcrw&app=desktop they lie to you every day

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed May 06, 2020 5:00 am Tonight was one of my more difficult nights of trading. I traded through the Asia and Europe opens, smashing the bots for $1,100 as shown below. I could have easily lost money trading tonight, as there was no consistency in the market. However, it was my guess that the market would try to test 2880 at least one more time.



I will resume watching the market tomorrow at the cash open. I'm getting ready to buckle in for a potential crash and may not trade at all after tonight. We'll see how it looks in the morning.

I did very little today except watch the market go down. It looks like the market could be passing through a sideways phase and getting ready to go into a down phase.



I need to think about how and where to add short positions if it starts to collapse and to mentally get myself ready to not cover any shorts as long as the trend stays down.

As speculated above, we did get several tests of 2880 in this session. I would add an observation to that. The May 2008 secondary high was 1440 before the collapse began in earnest and in this session the S&P futures were very persistent in trying to get through double that May 2008 high before selling off.

vincecate wrote: Wed May 06, 2020 8:39 am Many small businesses have had their business model destroyed. They can no longer make a profit. Having the Fed buy junk bonds mean they will sell junk bonds. Once they have the cash their best move after getting the money from the Fed (whichever program they used) is to pay themselves a big salary or bonus and then declare bankruptcy. After many people will be surprised that giving money did not keep the businesses open. The Fed is thinking like 2008 where cash/liquidity could get banks past their problem but today these businesses have a solvency problem and giving them cash does not fix that. For a large company like Boeing when they sell $27 billion in bonds it might fix it, but for a little restaurant their best move will be to take the cash and close up.

Solvency is the aspect everyone seems to have forgotten about, or never learned.

By my reckoning, the US economy has been insolvent since 2008 on a standalone basis. While "fake news" is being discussed all the time, few discuss "fake profits" that only exist due to fraudulent accounting and Federal Reserve counterfeit money. That brings me back to one of the best observations I've read on this forum, which came from mannfm11 who said Bernanke wanted to see how bankrupt he could get it before it collapsed. You can only suck from the periphery so long before the spigot runs dry. After that, the center implodes on itself.

mannfm11 wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2009 3:00 am I'm not going to read much of this because there is a lot of chasing rabbits down holes. The Fed reports the monetary base because that is the amount of liability the Fed has to the system. The mess is the fact that private credit can't expand any more on a normal basis and it has little or nothing to do with PE's and other crap that is being talked here. The governments really can't sustain anything and Bernanke wasn't born smarter than 99.9% of all people, maybe not over 50%. People are in positions like this for reasons other than brains. In any case, his philosophy is that if something is bankrupt, you might as well see how bankrupt you can get it before it collapses. Irving Fisher was wrong about the economy when the depression started and he was wrong about what caused the depression. The only way they are going to stop a deflationary depression is to create a Weimar Republic in the US. There are more noses cut off in the ditches of leadership around the world than can be counted. We have global warming supposedly, which is probably another attempt of governments to gain control of and brand their people like they are cattle and they are going to do something about it, but in the meantime they are going to put out stimulus packages that make certain that as much in the way of pollution and destruction of natural resources as possible goes on. We are going to solve an insolvency problem with an even greater insolvency. We are going to take 3% dividends on stocks while the corporate bonds of most stocks are paying 10% to 15%? Some group of academic idiots seems to believe that you are supposed to compare stocks to treasuries. I am glad they don't raise livestock because they would put female pigs in with bulls and cows in with boars. There are 900 million miles between what is represented by a risk free asset as treasuries are and entities whose bonds are trading as bottom of the swamp junk.

90% of the time in history, stocks have been cheaper than they are now, but you would think a bonanza was to be had for those that would pile in while those that stayed out would be left crying. 20 years from now we are still going to be trying to get out of this trading range, which is being pushed as a bargain price. In the meantime, those that get in are going to lose everything they have. As John likes to repeat, we are at a stage that the world changes in ways that few are going to be able to follow. A collapse in demand for goods and credit is just part of the equation. I would venture that 50% of the Nasdaq and SPX would be in bankruptcy right now if not for government bailouts and ignored accounting fraud. I read today that the government is threatening a Texas financial firm while turning a blind eye to the NY firms that are in much worse financial shape. The morals of the country have gone to hell to the point that the entire country is nothing but a bunch of blind gamblers who know nothing about value. The owner of the Texas Rangers and Dallas Stars is out of credit, not that he ever put a dime up to buy anything. His bankers will be nicer to him than they will be to you and I, you can bet.

More applicable now than the day it was written, in my opinion.

Reinmann effect is all I see right now H.

1.) Guenter Reimann was a member of the Communist resistance working underground inside of Hitler's Germany. 2.) He was an economist with Communist beliefs as a youth. 3.) After the war, Reimann's genius in international economic affairs gained him the ear of several American Presidents. As such, not only is Reimann's account of Hitler's domestic policies indispensable as HE WAS ACTUALLY THERE, but his credentials prove that he was not just any other survivor, but an actual expert sitting at the front row when it all came down.

In a staff report published on Monday, researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that German regions with higher mortality rates from the virus had a higher vote share for the Nazi Party in the elections of 1932 and 1933.

The collective H just went over the wire.

The market is like a woman who said you can get my pants down but you canot %^&* me.

As stated the judgement window stands and we indeed speak our mind here. The peak propaganda is not upon us yet.
The dis-formation is very advanced up to the point even the elect must renew regard.

https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article ... e/1643/814 The Research Problem and Methodology

The point is simple the FED is infected so in my view it pushes in your view H to events we have witnessed to be.
Another clarification is we are informed and we are told when to leave just it was warned before.

Secular warning is the CCP’s rationale for building a strategic cadre-capitalist alliance rests on two strategic pillars.
First, there is the perceived need to incorporate capitalists into the ruling party and other institutions of
the political system such as the national-, provincial-, and local-level People’s Congresses. Making
capitalists into comrades-in-arms in the economic growth scheme is ultimately a political project to
strengthen the performance legitimacy of the CCP. The second pillar is the security-related concern to
prevent entrepreneurs and middle-class professionals from transforming into a more autonomous social
interest and a political force with potential to become part of a broader opposition to CCP rule (Dickson,
2007. The party’s rationale became preventive policy when former President Jiang Zemin launched his
political formula of the “three represents” in 2000, abolishing a taboo by letting private entrepreneurs
become members of the CCP.

The remnant are in peril since do not understand what spokes Dietrich was pointing to.
Antinomianism manifests itself in two main ways within the church. First, it manifests itself in theological antinomianism, which in many cases denies the use of God’s moral law in the life of the Christian. The second manifestation is practical antinomianism. This is when professing believers dangerously live a “loose” Christian life by either circumventing their need to keep God’s commandments or flat out ignoring the importance of keeping the commandments of God.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Ixu2oyFcrw&app=desktop how they alter reality they never even knew

The epigenetics study was the reason we discussed to walk away from the realm of hell bound and to the the final pit unforgiven.
The choice was conveyed to go back and heal and that was council that was followed.

This video says the Fed jawboning got people to buy billions of corporate debt but the Fed has not actually started buying corporate debt or junk bond ETFs yet. People think they are front running the Fed so far.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-CS25p0gxo

It means companies are even more leveraged now than they were. It means there are lots of people expecting to flip to the Fed.

Hyperinflation starts with a rush out of bonds and the central bank buying everything. Then this becomes an inflationary death spiral, the more the central bank prints, the less anyone wants to hold bonds, but the less people hold bonds, the more the central bank has to print. With mostly jawboning so far we are not really starting the hyperinflation death spiral yet I guess. But it seems the Fed will really start buying soon, then the Fed balance sheet will really go up fast. Interesting times.

https://gravitypayments.com/ the future of smart and survival