Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Posted: **Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:00 pm**

Just pointing out the obvious, generally speaking, large corporations have not done badly during times of high taxes. This is due to the fact that governments do not buy small items save in huge lots, and mostly buy large items in large lots. IOW, the money from high taxes rolls back into large corporations, which become even larger.

Posted: **Wed Oct 28, 2009 1:22 pm**

John wrote:And now those same people at Citibank are charging millions of their own customers 30% interest, and using the money to pay themselves hundreds of millions of dollars in additional bonuses. This appears to me (as a non-lawyer) to be criminal extortion. Citibank appears to be turning into a criminal organization.

John,

What they are doing is creating the same consenus that existed in your childhood, one where people hated bankers.

This is all fascinating to me as I watch history unfold. One of the most surprising things is how fast it is all happening and yet, how patient the markets are in their ebb and flow as they once again suck people into the danger zone before the next tsunami hits. Greed is the tool used to create a new period of caution and prudence.

--Fred

Posted: **Wed Oct 28, 2009 1:58 pm**

demitude = 30% to infidels guys

Follow the money on who owns CIT

==========================================
Answered it was.... Today HFT

So, could money be flowing out of stocks as a reaction to the dumping of support in preparation for the liquidity required by the notes "Mondays Auction", purposefully by design, as speculated by Denver Dave? In the manner of pushing the investor around, like the vegetables on your plate?

Or not. One can only wonder in this brave new world of opaque quantitative easing and Federal Reserve innovations.

Cannot fix stupid just tell the sheep to obey since the State will save the World. Priceless monetary policy on both sides of stupidity left and right.
Meanwhile back the ranch it just gets better on the blatant coruption and spin dragging.

Robert Johnson before the House Financial Services Committee on regulation of OTC derivatives. (Johnson’s testimony is not up at the committee site.) Johnson brings together the issues of too big to fail and derivatives regulation: “Absent a drastic simplification of derivative exposures and a transparent and comprehensive improvement in the monitoring of those positions when imbedded in large firms, complex derivatives render these behemoth institutions Too Difficult to Resolve (TDTR).”

Simple: You have 90 days to register the cdo, or fuck you as pharoah decrees since you have smitten the land with 7 years of famine under the pain of
exile since my money still dying has a serial number, and your CDO does no harm hmm? yea there printing them also i heard, get over it, clear it in court or with uncle sam at your peril. But no, we the Bansters own Pharoah down to his last slaves as we devour the land as locust's. The land is barren of resolve and loves abuse of its current rented master as we destoyed also millions of the inhabitants with our cruel economic unintended consequences we love to say.
I went to court to resolve mine under law and contract since the bank violated a convenent capital position. What a bunch of whining assholes. Judges are saying this since also, you have no claim without title get out of my court room idiot. Business can have a death plan its called bonds. You default to the bond holders and fix the business unless the consumer sealed its fate.

Profit:
Earnings-per-share have exceeded the average analyst estimates at 81 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 that posted third-quarter results so far, which would be a record proportion for a full quarter data going back to 1993. Still, profits have decreased 23 percent on average for the 296 companies that reported since Oct. 7.

Sample:
They see the people up on the ladder and shake there heads, they do not like what they see, fore they are far more perceptive and worldly then previous generations and the hypocracy screams out at them and they are, to put in simple terms, confused.

Cap and Trade: All the Sheep bleet the new Masters of the Universe born of another, another, another crisis. Slaves...

Penace is not healing: http://www.tnr.com/article/failed-state-0 There is no backbone to live within your means. Thing do add up so grow up.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/margolis/margolis11.html

A smell of "fin du régime" hangs over Washington, just as it did over the last days of decaying Soviet empire when an out of touch leader presided over a lost foreign war, and a swamp of influence peddling and bribery, as the secret police struggled to keep a lid on growing dissent.

Moving Forward: http://www.spiegel.de/international/ger ... 59,00.html
German media commentators say Merkel is taking a big risk by cutting taxes at a time when the government debt is already at record levels in the wake of the financial crisis. In effect, she is gambling that the tax cuts will spur growth and thereby pay for themselves through increased tax revenues once Europe's largest economy starts chugging again.

Tough call but in prudent hands there better off.

Posted: **Fri Oct 30, 2009 1:00 pm**

Could this be a prelude to what will happen during John's predicted crash when all the exchanges lockup.

From zerohedge:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nyse-p ... up-servers

: NYSE Backup.jpg (39.43 KiB) Viewed 8075 times

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/it-all ... il-it-isnt

: NYSE Bridge.jpg (53.76 KiB) Viewed 8074 times

Seems to always happen on down days with high volume (not up days). My question is are the "backup servers" really the PPT.

wtf

Posted: **Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:54 pm**

wtf wrote:Could this be a prelude to what will happen during John's predicted crash when all the exchanges lockup.

From zerohedge:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nyse-p ... up-servers

NYSE Backup.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/it-all ... il-it-isnt

NYSE Bridge.jpg
Seems to always happen on down days with high volume (not up days). My question is are the "backup servers" really the PPT.

wtf

Investors fled to safer assets like the dollar and Treasurys.

The Dow fell 249.85, or 2.5 percent, to 9,712.73, its lowest close since Oct. 5.

THOMAS JEFFERSON 1791 " first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Have not seen the segment volume, may not of been GS HFT day, we have only seen a few lately since the QE flood alg's.
I think dark pools for volume issues may have needed chocked up IMO
Like many others I am off the radar on trades till crocus pops up in the melting snow.
Where not total idiots as they secure report earning YTD. We have discussed whales feeding
but really what does the ZIFF market tell us? Mr Market is what it is so watch the predators
at work. SEC's failure to detect Madoff's fraudulent scheme for 16 years. Blind seeking
the blind since the coruption is top down and as we know the bottum up also since
ethics have nothing to do with business.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:39 am**

-- Roubini reaffirms his "crash" prediction

Last week I posted an article quoting Nouriel Roubini apparently
predicting a global market crash during an interview on CNBC.

** Nouriel Roubini apparently is predicting a global market crash
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 27#e091027

It's now obvious that he was in the process of writing an article on
the subject at the time he gave that interview. The article appeared
on Sunday in the Financial Times. He used many of the same words in
the article that he used in the interview.

I'll quote a few paragraphs:

Nouriel Roubini wrote: > Let us sum up: traders are borrowing at negative 20 per cent rates
> to invest on a highly leveraged basis on a mass of risky global
> assets that are rising in price due to excess liquidity and a
> massive carry trade. Every investor who plays this risky game
> looks like a genius – even if they are just riding a huge bubble
> financed by a large negative cost of borrowing – as the total
> returns have been in the 50-70 per cent range since March.

> People’s sense of the value at risk (VAR) of their aggregate
> portfolios ought, instead, to have been increasing due to a
> rising correlation of the risks between different asset classes,
> all of which are driven by this common monetary policy and the
> carry trade. In effect, it has become one big common trade – you
> short the dollar to buy any global risky assets.

> Yet, at the same time, the perceived riskiness of individual
> asset classes is declining as volatility is diminished due to the
> Fed’s policy of buying everything in sight – witness its proposed
> $1,800bn (£1,000bn, €1,200bn) purchase of Treasuries,
> mortgage-backed securities (bonds guaranteed by a
> government-sponsored enterprise such as Fannie Mae) and agency
> debt. By effectively reducing the volatility of individual asset
> classes, making them behave the same way, there is now little
> diversification across markets – the VAR again looks low.

> So the combined effect of the Fed policy of a zero Fed funds
> rate, quantitative easing and massive purchase of long-term debt
> instruments is seemingly making the world safe – for now – for the
> mother of all carry trades and mother of all highly leveraged
> global asset bubbles.

> While this policy feeds the global asset bubble it is also feeding
> a new US asset bubble. Easy money, quantitative easing, credit
> easing and massive inflows of capital into the US via an
> accumulation of forex reserves by foreign central banks makes US
> fiscal deficits easier to fund and feeds the US equity and credit
> bubble. Finally, a weak dollar is good for US equities as it may
> lead to higher growth and makes the foreign currency profits of US
> corporations abroad greater in dollar terms.

> The reckless US policy that is feeding these carry trades is
> forcing other countries to follow its easy monetary policy.
> Near-zero policy rates and quantitative easing were already in
> place in the UK, eurozone, Japan, Sweden and other advanced
> economies, but the dollar weakness is making this global monetary
> easing worse. Central banks in Asia and Latin America are worried
> about dollar weakness and are aggressively intervening to stop
> excessive currency appreciation. This is keeping short-term rates
> lower than is desirable. Central banks may also be forced to lower
> interest rates through domestic open market operations. Some
> central banks, concerned about the hot money driving up their
> currencies, as in Brazil, are imposing controls on capital
> inflows. Either way, the carry trade bubble will get worse: if
> there is no forex intervention and foreign currencies appreciate,
> the negative borrowing cost of the carry trade becomes more
> negative. If intervention or open market operations control
> currency appreciation, the ensuing domestic monetary easing feeds
> an asset bubble in these economies. So the perfectly correlated
> bubble across all global asset classes gets bigger by the day.

> But one day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest
> co-ordinated asset bust ever: if factors lead the dollar to
> reverse and suddenly appreciate – as was seen in previous
> reversals, such as the yen-funded carry trade – the leveraged
> carry trade will have to be suddenly closed as investors cover
> their dollar shorts. A stampede will occur as closing long
> leveraged risky asset positions across all asset classes funded by
> dollar shorts triggers a co-ordinated collapse of all those risky
> assets – equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and
> credit instruments. ...

> This unraveling may not occur for a while, as easy money and
> excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a
> while. But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger
> the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble
> crash. The Fed and other policymakers seem unaware of the monster
> bubble they are creating. The longer they remain blind, the
> harder the markets will fall.

> http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a5b3216-c70b ... ab49a.html

Like last week, Roubini seems to be predicting a market crash with
100% certainty. The only ambiguity is the timing, but this time he
also makes the key additional point that I and several other people in
this forum have been making: The longer this destructive public policy
continues, the worse the catastrophe is going to be.

John

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2009 5:37 am**

interesting charts of S&P cycles

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:40 pm**

Today I wrote an article with regards to South America's position in their own generational cycle. As I've discussed here and on my blog before, I don't believe the China story is authentic, nor am I particularly enamoured with India. But many South American nations (not all), firmly in generational Awakening eras should provide attractive investments - after global equity markets pop and they get taken down in conjunction, of course.

John, I don't recall you ever focusing on South America. I'd be interested in your opinion on this matter.

http://futronomics.blogspot.com/2009/11 ... unity.html

Posted: **Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:43 pm**

This article brought John's favorite quote to mind in a powerful way.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1257551 ... st_Popular

Home loans "are a really good source of cheap capital," ..... By hocking the house, so to speak, he and others say they are simply borrowing low in hopes of investing in something they believe will yield a high return.

We are, in many ways, in 1930, after the first stock crash, after the money was poured into Europe, but before the banks crashed for good.

Five more banks closed, the job numbers were "unexpectedly bad" and people just keep tripping along, with eyes wide shut.

Posted: **Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:51 pm**

aedens wrote:http://www.finviz.com/insidertrading.as ... ctionValue

Im out - good hunting, back in the spring. I cannot see a technical or fundamental trade given the landscape.

Hubris inflicts lasting pain. Disipline over conviction must prevail or all is lost Washington. The left and the right are wrong.
Since the Consumers is shattered by your historical ineptitude may your creator judge since the honest are afficted and you
deny justice to the common man. So few, for so long have lowered the eyes of honest guidance to indifference. A heavy price
indeed extracted.

After Hours: 37.47 2.91 (8.42%) 6:55pm ET 10/15/09

Last Trade: 38.11 Trade Time: Oct 16 Change: 3.55 10.27%

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest- ... oductivity

Read carefully, I was not alone talking to a shadow since if your not in your out $$, so remember discipline over conviction.
I never give up on technicals or fundamantals, but as i stated as observed mine where blurred so i choose to step out
given data points.

I am still pondering the depth and length of the SEC as a group think issue to systemic misnomer
since so much malinvestment has hurt so many people. Given the Voters acumen I think not since it must run its course
on the other hand. How long must people suffer in accordance to there actions of others? Another Political cycle approaches
so we already know how that go. I have no party but independant action and what is current stream we have so I am not hopefull
to there aversion to acountability. I took a week off and the Creator claimed a family member as the way of the earth. The Joy is
the Creators when we seek his ways and my loss since his voice is silenced but I can only convey to my household his given wisdom.
All days count so prepare for your grandchildren's; as our so called wise leaders wander away from reason based on regard in the eye
of there own ways...

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Roubini reaffirms his "crash" prediction

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