Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Market stays irrational longer than they can stay solvent.
Slow at first the all at once.
DeBlasio & Cuomo smothering another bob bish zone.
You can't fix stupid. NYC will stay blue.
Only one by one do they regain their sanity.

Daniel 12:10 - Many shall be purified, and made white, and tried;
but the wicked shall do wickedly: and none of the wicked shall understand;
but the wise shall understand.
Jeremiah 7:26 Yet they would not listen to Me or incline their ear,
but they stiffened their necks and did more evil than their fathers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJBTOC3Mfpk

.4528 cash
vix pull back tomorrow

In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value and will tend to become closer to the expected value as more trials are performed.

Many swaps tomorrow and modest dislocation.
Mathew principle that Pareto mind hacked.

43 percent of the companies do not reopen again as 70 percent of small firms go out of business within a year after.
Leaving data unprotected
Never leave data on any network. Thats why you populate data on offline systems.
Gate keeper can be hairpinned so you see who just left.
228 bias routes

Cheshvan with the Ancient or Paleo meanings included:
Chet = ח = fence – to separate, enclose
Shin = שׁ = teeth – to destroy, consume
Vav = ו = nail – to attach, secure, add
Nun = ן = fish – life, activity, quickening

Putting it all together, the word Cheshvan means destruction is separated and new life is secured.

thread: 78020
In a campaign that’s believed to have been going on ever since the previous investigation, it’s been targeting Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar and Brunei using ‘stepping-stone’ attacks.

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:31 am

aedens wrote:Also I convey a story from Isaac Newton, which may be true and, in any case, is a great story from Jeremy Grantham.
Newton had the great good luck to get into the South Sea Bubble early. He made a really decent investment and a very quick killing, which mattered to him. It was enough to count. He then got out, and suffered the most painful experience that can happen in investing: he watched all of his friends getting disgustingly rich. He lost his cool and got back in, but to make up for lost time, he got back in with a whole lot more (some of it borrowed), nicely caught the decline, and was totally wiped out. And he is reported to have said something like, “I can calculate the movement of heavenly bodies but not the madness of men.”

I've noted this story a couple times, first in 2008, with regards to Newton and Einstein both losing most of their money in bad investments (searching archives for "Newton" will bring up the posts). I believe it was Newton's niece who verified the story. Einstein's bad investments were revealed when many of his personal letters were published a few years ago. It's been my observation through time that otherwise very intelligent scientists and engineers make horrible investors and traders.

This shows two of the reasons mentioned in the post previously.

"One is that really intelligent people often make a lot of great trades right out of the gate, become overconfident, then blow up. This is probably the most common way intelligent people blow up their accounts."

"Another is that just because somebody is intelligent doesn't mean that they don't follow the herd. After all, to some extent, intelligence is just the ability to assimilate other ideas, including the ideas of the herd. Newton was reputed to have lost a considerable sum in the South Sea Bubble."

There's one last reason I can think of that traders fail and this is my main Achilles Heel.

At its core, it comes down to laziness. Secondarily, it is a propensity to gamble with winnings. I tend to grind out profits for awhile and that is really hard work. It is painstakingly tedious and difficult and I really hate it. Recently, and I never discussed this here, between March 16 and April 3, I ground out almost 100K in trading wins as the market gyrated. Then, to get some relief, when the market was at around 2600 I sold 5 lots and held, thinking that 100K was safe and the market wouldn't get over 3000.

When I sold those 5 lots I knew damn well the market was going higher, but I was tired and didn't think it would go another 400 points higher before reversing.

** 21-Jul-2020 World View: Achilles Heel

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:36 pm > There's one last reason I can think of that traders fail and this
> is my main Achilles Heel.

> At its core, it comes down to laziness. Secondarily, it is a
> propensity to gamble with winnings. I tend to grind out profits
> for awhile and that is really hard work. It is painstakingly
> tedious and difficult and I really hate it. Recently, and I never
> discussed this here, between March 16 and April 3, I ground out
> almost 100K in trading wins as the market gyrated. Then, to get
> some relief, when the market was at around 2600 I sold 5 lots and
> held, thinking that 100K was safe and the market wouldn't get over
> 3000.

> When I sold those 5 lots I knew damn well the market was going
> higher, but I was tired and didn't think it would go another 400
> points higher before reversing.

So what's the current situation. Are you in as much trouble as
Einstein was in?

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:46 pm Vince, this is about a couple who has done something similar to seasteading for 29 years.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/19/us/coupl ... ket-newtab
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -home.html

It is similar in being off grid and floating. But to me the main attraction is that I could move to a different legal jurisdiction or even just go to international waters if things got bad. So being comfortable in open ocean waves is a key thing for me. You can see some of my ideas for how at http://seastead.ai/ Trying to design something that can get the comfort and safety of a much larger and more costly ship in a reasonable price range for a family home.

John wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:51 pm ** 21-Jul-2020 World View: Achilles Heel

So what's the current situation. Are you in as much trouble as Einstein was in?

Currently I'm in OK shape, but that's only because I never increased my short position beyond 5 lots as the market rose to 3150 without requiring that day trading profit be used to maintain any additional lots sold (beyond 5) at an overall profit. That was because I've learned from difficult experience that bear market rallies can carry further than I would ever think possible. But the 100K I made as the market fell below 2600 and then rose back up to 2600 is gone. If I'd increased to 20 lots at 2800-2900 (where I thought the market should almost certainly turn down) I'd be much more concerned. As of now, I'm short 6 lots and just riding out the storm.

vincecate wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:54 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:46 pm Vince, this is about a couple who has done something similar to seasteading for 29 years.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/19/us/coupl ... ket-newtab
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -home.html

It is similar in being off grid and floating. But to me the main attraction is that I could move to a different legal jurisdiction or even just go to international waters if things got bad. So being comfortable in open ocean waves is a key thing for me. You can see some of my ideas for how at http://seastead.ai/ Trying to design something that can get the comfort and safety of a much larger and more costly ship in a reasonable price range for a family home.

Looks to me like that couple is tied (literally) to a location. I was curious as to whether they are paying any taxes. I found that, "They have been assigned a floating GPS number, pay provincial and municipal taxes, use Facebook and watch television using satellite connections." I'm guessing that being tethered to a location and being taxed as if it's a property is not of interest to many who want a seastead. What I did find fascinating is that they are self-sustaining and never really need to leave their home. Somewhere I read they go to town to buy chocolate, popcorn and goat cheese.

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:08 pm As of now, I'm short 6 lots and just riding out the storm.

richard5za wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:05 am Now I shall just watch the madness as if its a fantasy show until its clear that there is a trend reversal. My analytical head says this week will be the turn but lets wait for evidence of the turn down

The Fed has got itself into a bind. Since nobody will sell until the market turns down, there will probably be a deluge of selling at some point after an obvious high has been put in. In the meantime, the market has been floating higher because everyone "knows" (whether true or not) not to sell until the Fed loses control.

https://www.electrochem.org/what-is-blue-energy next 2 decades metrics

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/stat ... 46/photo/1
wait and see what planes out

they have no standards or class
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/20 ... china.html

Roberta Baskin, the award winning CBS reporter, tells us what happened and why.
In October 1996, Baskin broke the story of Nike's labor practices in Vietnam on CBS investigative program "48 Hours."
Baskin traveled to Vietnam, talked with young women who make Nike shoes and heard tales of physical abuse,
illegally low wages and long working hours.
You think that you receive unbiased and accurate world and local news.
Nike merchandise is not allowed on my property and are predators.
The argument is they would starve without 15 cents per hours slave pits.

Mastery of human consciousness should be a paramount political objective. As Richard Pipes has pointed out
[in 'Survival is Not Enough', Simon and Schuster, New York, 1984, page 80], 'such mastery is secured, in the first place, by control of the organs of information'. The objective is 'to control thought at the source - that is, in the mind that absorbs and processes the information - and the best way of accomplishing this is by shaping words and phrases in the desired manner'.
Moreover control of the Western mind is to be achieved not only by means of the dishonest use of language, but also through operations to demoralise the West - through corrosive attacks on society's institutions, the active promotion of drug abuse, and the spread of agnosticism, nihilism, permissiveness and concerted attacks on the family in order to destabilise society. Religion and the traditional cultural and moral hegemony must first be destroyed, before the revolution can be successful The still unproven assumption of the strategists is that with Western society 'deconstructed', its leaders will meekly accept and cooperate...

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=41817#p41817

Following the death of his wife in 1950, Du Bois married Shirley Graham the following year. Graham’s interest led Du Bois further into exploring communism, delving into the American Communist community and becoming known for his apologetic view of Joseph Stalin.
In 1961 Du Bois officially joined the American Communist Party before leaving the country to live in Ghana at the invitation of its president and becoming a citizen there.

Angela Davis - So, I am convinced that the ultimate eradication of racism is going to require us to move toward a more socialist organization of our economies, of our other institutions. I think we have a long way to go before we can begin to talk about an economic system that is not based on exploitation....

Angela Davis: Yeah, racism is integrally linked to capitalism.
And I think it’s a mistake to assume that we can combat racism by leaving capitalism in place.

And we sharpen the point of Utility just as the Rabbi warned us irony is simply lost.



Virtue signaling liberals for the group think dynamics expecting a different result.
The irony at best in the Dunning Kruger effect as the Rabbi conveyed.

On the other hand, high performers are fully aware of the vastness and complexity of the field they’re working in. They know how much they don’t know, and thus, they usually underestimate their ability and competence in a particular area.
In contrast to high performers, poor performers also do not learn from feedback suggesting a need to improve.

We only asserted solutions to keep some to shelter in place and forgive rural taxes burdens as opposed to reports to treasury tax reports.
We saved money and worked with local medical and thinking workers in social.
Some of girls were and are overloaded and yes we still know this.
Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:16 pm
When Granholm won in 2003 we seen the transition period of - them - with postgraduate degrees and who are in the elite of the
Democratic Party live in our own Versailles, and we don’t know any working-class people either. 2020

Some work for nothing and thank God we can offer what we can.

Brrrrrrrrrrr world until it knots..
We are only two weeks into gold seasonality, the time when historically gold makes 85% of it's annual gains between
July 8th and October 8th. krack

Godzilla notes - Investors should scour alternative data for trading signals and end their obsession with valuation metrics.

​“The market is looking at a billion of things that we only know a very small amount of,” Shen said in a telephone interview from San Francisco. “While the philosophical conversation is right in the sense that there should be some fundamentals relative to the price, how the market prices different fundamentals, different sentiment, different flows is pretty much a mystery to any one of us.”