Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Link from aedens post: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/youve- ... o-about-it

Bridgewater Associates: "Normally, labor markets lag the economy because incremental spending transactions are financed via debt, stimulated by interest rate cuts. But as long as credit remains frozen and in a deleveraging environment, job growth becomes an important leading, causal indicator of demand and other economic conditions. The deterioration in labor market will continue because companies' profit margins are so deeply damaged (amid the slowdown in consumer spending and credit crunch) that a little bounce in growth won't do much to alter their need to cut costs." (via Thoughts from the Frontline; 05/15/09)

Unemployment not a lagging indicator in a deleveraging (consumer credit impaired) environment (as discussed yesterday). Meanwhile, the stock market goes up as labor conditions worsen.

Higgenbotham wrote:Link from aedens post: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/youve- ... o-about-it

Bridgewater Associates: "Normally, labor markets lag the economy because incremental spending transactions are financed via debt, stimulated by interest rate cuts. But as long as credit remains frozen and in a deleveraging environment, job growth becomes an important leading, causal indicator of demand and other economic conditions. The deterioration in labor market will continue because companies' profit margins are so deeply damaged (amid the slowdown in consumer spending and credit crunch) that a little bounce in growth won't do much to alter their need to cut costs." (via Thoughts from the Frontline; 05/15/09)

Unemployment not a lagging indicator in a deleveraging (consumer credit impaired) environment (as discussed yesterday). Meanwhile, the stock market goes up as labor conditions worsen.

http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2009/07/re ... onomy.html
Food for thought..
Observation:
Geo Corporate Rent Dissapation alignments resets:
The structural factor is a shift in the composition of U.S. output in the coming years. The economic recovery commences in the fourth quarter of this year as expected and continues into 2010, some American households and businesses will doubt it even though various reliable economic reports will confirm it and keep an eye on the index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) also in addition to PMI.
Meanwhile the lefttards posit:
The same media types who screamed blue murder with undisguised glee when unemployment hit 5 per cent under Bush are now telling us that the current 10.2 per cent rate is being driven by rising productivity and so there is little that can be done about it in the near future. I find this reasoning very suspicious. It looks to me as if Obama supporters have resigned themselves to a persistent high rate of unemployment and are looking for an excuse to rationalise it.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14963.htm
Consumers are found and as a article earlier forwarded they are pushed around like vegtables on a plate. The best question is in a free market since it works is where contract is not impeded and thus the shadow army abroad and local who consume in a free market the extent in question is how to manage them which is itself self explanitory who interferes with them. If you think hyprocracy on the previous mention think gatekeeper and grow up. The point is Human Action has attributes the left cannnot fathom in there barren ideological makeup.
Defensive posture info: http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2 ... ncome.html

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009 ... ge-stupid/
Good Hunting all
http://www.zerohedge.com/darpa
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=1 ... cmaterials

resistance at 1096-1101. Support is at 1070-1060, then 1030-1020. We shall see ....
SP500 1093.08 +23.78 2.22 1072 n/a 11/9/2009

Real Time http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north780.html

Mr. O'Neal, the man considered most responsible for Merrill's disastrous foray into risk-taking, told in an interview last year that in the fall of 2007, when he saw that the firm's problems were insurmountable, he had a deal to sell Merrill to Bank of America for around $90 a share. But Merrill's board rejected it, believing he would be selling out cheaply. The CDOs would eventually recover, they argued, as the Fed pumped life into the markets.

I feel John is correct on the latency timing to cascade is always the issue. Given the low credit velocity on the credit markets in the States to date and correlation points the Markets are not in a head wind mode given the CDO OTC envelopement process. The aspect I want to clearly convey is like making a candle as you dip it numerous time to contruct it and the Treasury has not the resolve to avert this final crisis. Namely those who walk it up will take it down as numerous managers step out in context to fundamentals just as last time. Basically the consumer on up has convinced himself in degree that ethics play no part on contract now since I can play equity and gamble which is a defintion of insurances named CDO on the honest men and women to are trapped with no way out as rent dissapation in Financials. I am not a bear or bull but seek value added with inherant moral hazzard incrementally growing in numerous market globally we have been forwarding and trending these collary values. Giving a date with decades of sloping moral hazzard in the context of numerous decades even the direct context of FED papers I have trended and read from the mid 30's to today. There can be no recovery since we all know malinvestment must be cleared from the incompetant to competant individuals but this must press further to acountabilty. This current bubble is John's maximum we are seeing and really the net effect is just the level of communication gaming demise. Currently I see stabilization based on efforts on desperation and careers snuffed out for having compassion for there employees gamed by contracts to default's guised to protect capital bleed from options and status quo ethic's from acedemia even when they say it was wrong to persist only matched with the fiddle playing as our market is looted on those as conveyed yhe click sell as in the average investor is decimated again from data feeds you will never see. The onset of defaults will ensue in the markets we trend and track and many are in forums from volunteer's and since I have no ability other than we can see the sign's of the weather but not the signs of the times as we read. Stability must cascade from the top down and given what we see in relationship it is a long time to spring and will as many monitor there pragmatic reform spin and I think we already where that to date.
What we need to see is not happening.

An interesting article on "shadow inventory" of housing and other housing-related topics.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33834317

I find myself learning great patience. Just sitting here waiting for the pot to boil. As we all know, it will not boil if watched and so I am quietly listening for the bubbling sound....

--Fred

I figure they have to keep the facade of a recovery going through the end of the year to have any hope of consumer spending this Christmas. I'm thinking early next year the markets will be allowed to correct. (Of course this is what we thought about 3Q earnings too). That time line will also feed into the Keynesian 2nd stimulus since there is huge opposition to more spending now; but throw in a massive DOW crash, ah er, I mean correction, along with dire headlines and they can scare us out of more free money. With so many people out of work I don't believe it will work; but someone has to tell the folks who dropped off the unemployment rolls that they are no longer unemployed, but rather permanently at leisure.

Antidote: My wife's liberal friend said after her accountant friend lost her city job, "I don't think things are going to get better. I think they might be worse." You THINK!

freddyv wrote:An interesting article on "shadow inventory" of housing and other housing-related topics.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33834317

I find myself learning great patience. Just sitting here waiting for the pot to boil. As we all know, it will not boil if watched and so I am quietly listening for the bubbling sound....

--Fred

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... le1359865/
“Identifying such bubbles is a lot easier than timing their collapse,” he wrote in one note. “But as we've recently learned, you can defy the laws of financial gravity for only so long.”

Structural issues are in maximum compression now. Currency peg will shift since both the parents die and the baby starves....
Ah the love of money and we define avarice as a process given the vice it contains worthy of one course since it contains demise.
No unpopular Government will last in the long run as they "insure" there own winter on the people. Those trying to make are innovating as we are
but there is so much headwinds and noise even when doing things better politics distort fact. Internal wrecking ball and they wonder what the hell just hit us.
The apathy top to bottum will give way to humilty before the last crash it appears as was the last event we remember in the 70's we had to tough out.
Pointless from here on to convey there ass kicking and misery to come. They never learn... but must suffer.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14999.htm

xakzen wrote:I figure they have to keep the facade of a recovery going through the end of the year to have any hope of consumer spending this Christmas. I'm thinking early next year the markets will be allowed to correct. (Of course this is what we thought about 3Q earnings too). That time line will also feed into the Keynesian 2nd stimulus since there is huge opposition to more spending now; but throw in a massive DOW crash, ah er, I mean correction, along with dire headlines and they can scare us out of more free money. With so many people out of work I don't believe it will work; but someone has to tell the folks who dropped off the unemployment rolls that they are no longer unemployed, but rather permanently at leisure.

Antidote: My wife's liberal friend said after her accountant friend lost her city job, "I don't think things are going to get better. I think they might be worse." You THINK!

You would assume by now the Liberals would understand they sooner or later run out of other peoples money. The Left and Right will have to understand what a fulcrum is. Over 30 years the game has played out given there is no natural interest rate in regional economy's. We posted causation issues that the interest rate in New York has nothing to do with North Dakota and the Liberal Keynesians always flatly ignore reality. We show it with there own playbook and they still do not get it. I do hope She finds work but much more pain appears as we understand it is coming.

ZH: The end result of all these actions, of course, is that the value of the dollar is about to plummet: when Bernanke announces that not only will he not end QE but that he will launch another version of the program, expect the dollar to take off on its one way path to $2 = €1. And when that happens, look for global trade to cease completely. In its quest to continue bailing out the banking system and rolling the trillions of toxic loans it refuses to accept are worthless (for if it did, equity values in the banking system would go, to zero immediately), the Fed will promptly resume destroying not only the US middle class, but the entire system of global trade built through many years of globalization. Look for America to end up in an insulated liquidity bubble in a few short years, trading exclusively with its vassal master: the People's Republic of China.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/quanti ... interventi

There manipulation has reduced America to serfdom for an agenda now proscribed as a curse and really if you Vote more in the so called
smart money will plead rationation of the topic. CDO=Insurance=Gambling and that even is not the tip of the iceberg on that topic alone.
The middle class is finished and even the left cannot see there usefull idiots yet. At least China appears to acept market principals but given
my generational dynamics I refuse to directly invest Capital over there. It is past rock and a hard place but the context is Geocentric natured now
and the discord appears to transend Left and Right Politics. Already the left is attacking the Independant's as you voted left and abandoned us.
They cannot identify Independance given there total ignorance and blind ambition to there lemming march of history again.

Private bankers got together, took over governments, and have set up a world government structure that they are now actively trying to transfer power from sovereign countries into the new government government that they control (IMF, UN, World Bank, Central Banks). Cap & trade is an important part of their plan, they own the third world countries completely and these countries will not have the restrictions - wealth will be transfered from the US to their 3rd world countries. Must create new consumers to save the World since these are tapped out here finally. The people of this country are the last to be conquered.
One serf at a time now serf. Now buy this health package or you rot in prison as enemy of the State.

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/cpquery/R ... 28hr299%29

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z ... 03200:@@@J

http://www.americanbenefitscouncil.org/ ... _110th.pdf

http://pelosiwatch.us/Congressional-Record/

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 1AHHRA.DTL
For more than a decade, the Hyde amendment has prohibited the federal government from paying for abortions through any existing government program. The law needs to be reauthorized each year as part of the appropriations process.
Pay for your own issues.........

Lack of supply: China

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N= ... 4ZvD1o.asf

He knows better than this and I feel he thus alluded to it if you have the presense of history in your mind to hear it. Given his pragamatic assertion I have heard in the past he fits there needs over the decades to, and serves the duty of term avarice and current party line masters. Amazing waste of talent and resources. And the firm he represents is also ICE, an online commodities and futures marketplace. It is outside the US and operates free from the constraints of US laws. The exchange was set up to facilitate "dark pool" trading in the commodities markets. Billions of dollars are being placed on oil futures contracts at the ICE and the beauty of this scam is that they NEVER take delivery, per se. They just ratchet up the price with leveraged speculation using your TARP money. Funny how the tearups never pressed well did they...

http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/ama ... -in-china/
Lu Guang (卢广), freelancer photographer, started as an amateur photographer in 1980. He was a factory worker, later started his own photo studio and advertising agency. August of 1993 he returned to post-graduate studies at the Central Arts and Design Academy in Beijing (now is the Academy of Arts and Design, Tsinghua University). During graduate school, he studied, traveled all over the country and carved out a career, became the “dark horse” of the photographer circle in Beijing. Skilled at social documentary photography, his insightful, creative and artistic work often focused on “social phenomena and people living at the bottom of society. "In fact, there is no economic development for them, it only brought them destructions. Back then they had fertile fields. There were many water conservancy facilities built in the 70’s, all were every good, used to irrigate the fields. But now, pollution came and the water could not be used to irrigate the fields anymore. After a long time, now all the water conservancy facilities are wastes. The polluted water has led to contamination of the underground water. All their drinking water is underground water, water in the wells or from the water tower."

Moa was not ever allowed off the path either as he traveled to the country side since it is only about the party, i.e cult here and there also. These people are nuts and blind top to bottom here and abroad. Evidence is a two handed sword. And how much return per dollar of credit do we have now. I think deflation will cure that toxic balance sheet so we can find out but if interest rates spike Governments fall as will trillion of lie based GPD. It is quite chilling to note that steel production in America is on a par with output back in 1938, when GDP was a mere 7% of its current size and the percentage of public who loathe our unions but inports based in filthe based economics of politics is just fine. The level of these liberal hypocrats is typical in any age of not in my back yard self interests. Meanwhile these dismal science tools called educated people are blind to reality and are flatly given over to there bent of mind. Over the last decades, each dollar of mined debt has generated less and less marginal income. We knew that there would be a "zero-hour" for the economy when the creation of new debt would not contribute to GDP growth. This zero-hour for America has perhaps arrived sooner than many had anticipated. Political garbage spews out of sick minds and there progressive agenda is on task so wake the hell up Voters, er serfs sorry. What does Keynesians sum to in the long run? Generational serfs cultured to there socializational utopian ditches which was observed long ago and recorded also so look where we are now again. Pointless to discuss anything with the pacification of masses from the neck up anymore. Ask any Indian how that works out dealing with the level of honor and acountability of any governments. You can hear them now frothing on how this time it is different.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/12/busin ... ted=1&_r=1
Total crap, the bubble is still being pumped but progress does have a price as does avarice and acountability in this so called new way of thinking and change.

Review nothing but nothing: http://www.businessweek.com/blogs/money ... na_si.html
There’s a basic recognition that things are going to have to change going forward

You can see how this going to turn out:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/14/world ... ?ref=world

meanwhile: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXPCH

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publicat ... 01/iet.pdf
The sum of U.S. exports to the rest of the
world (ROW) plus imports from the ROW, as a percentage
of gross domestic product (GDP), increased by 50 percent
from 1974 to 2007.1 Cross-country financial holdings also
increased substantially during this period. U.S. international
portfolio investments increased from 2 percent to 29 percent of
U.S. capital stock from 1974 to 2007

Meanwhile: We are in 130 countries and 700 bases around the world and we cannot sustain these. It's pumped out by the left and the right. There is conservative Keynesianism and liberal Keynesianism which always fails and gives us the financial crisis we are in.Up 50 percent from 1974, trillion in debt,
consumers decimated. Yep green shoots with no discernable amount of Business group seeking synergy's to survive. Unable to clear malinvestment without systemic failure. Thats the good news going into winter. All politics is local so make up your own mind for a change. Locally things are not better but the beltway sucks the life out of all else.
The harvest: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/e ... 832964.ece

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/whither-de-pegging

Being left alone and being alone can balance as Zero CPI
Monetary inflation is theft not the market.
Fulcrum to leverage true change is savings and the benifit of my dollar spent
by me to assist my locality since all politics are local. If you doubt that statement
resign. Vote reason

Gatekeeper is another issue.

http://mises.org/daily/3855 Inflation

THOMAS JEFFERSON 1791 " first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... 202009.pdf
The 1990-page health care legislation not only has the “millionaire’s taxes”
on those earning above $500,000, but imposes high extra taxes on small
businesses which do not offer health care to their employees.
Doubtless, local bankers will be looking at the effects of these permanent tax
increases and mentally marking down their customers’ ability to service their
loans in future years.

Cash was splashed among the B5 to array their balance sheets, which were
looking Gandhian in their skinniness. But the B5 re-deposited a huge slug of
those funds with the Fed as excess reserves: why go through all the nuisance
involved in making loans to individual companies? They also bought up the
Treasury curve. These bankers toil not much, but they spin like mad: they
keep trying to convince us that they didn’t cause the Crash, and they really
deserve their big bonuses.

Last week, according to The Wall Street Journal, the World Bank expressed
alarm about “asset price bubbles in equity markets across Asia, and in real
estate in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam,” and the IMF chimed
in with fears “that surging Hong Kong asset prices are driven by a fl ood of
capital ‘divorced from fundamental forces of supply and demand.’’’
Hong Kong, of course, pegs its currency to the dollar, which means it
outsources its monetary policy to Ben Bernanke. The Zero rate automatically
means a weak dollar—here and in Hong Kong. To a somewhat lesser degree
it means a weak renminbi.
Central bankers have soothed us with assurances that rapid monetary growth
will not trigger infl ation as long as economies remain weak. But they said that
in the 1970s, and commodity infl ation proved them wrong.


The hour is soon upon us as was fortold. I heard it the other from a liberal you would step over some one in gutter in your view.
Never have they concieved the thought a man who cares not for his household is worse than a infidel. If they are hungry only fulfill the need . They only get what they need in mine. Food, shelter, and education from idea's they dismiss as fable in there bent of mind. We where asked to feed the fold and seek the lost ones. It was conveyed that a mans right's where violated since he refused a breath test and meanwhile shelter was provided for a woman homless with her child in that same night and I regarded it a lesson also.
The right hand is not to ask the left hand on giving since you need to read the chapter it comes from to provide true guidance in a fallen world.

You are said property of the State in this madness.
They will say they need time to rebuild the balance sheets.
Untrue since talk to your local people and how they fare in this
day of avarice.

After 15 weeks of being neutral, the "smart money" indicator has turned towards a more bearish reading. The "dumb money" indicator remains in the extreme bullish zone. While not there yet, the indicators are heading in the direction that one would expect to see at a market top.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/invest ... ng-bearish

I was early out equity as posted until spring now as conveyed earlier.
Assume a move coming from hubris and not fundamantal's. Do not know on convexity correlation but it was factored in
as was conveyed in forums on risk management. More fundamantal pressure coming to actual jobs that are value added
to capacity and demand given polital inertia which is another layer of malinvest the British endure since the climate is votes
to a party line from manufacturing to Bureacratic centric mentality.
meanwhile: Mon Sep 28, 2009 6:37 pm Prepare now since they are holding the taxpayer in a death grip. If you cannot discern the syndicalism and corporativism in the market condition there is no hope to convince you anyway. ...

See Smets and Wouters (2007) for a complete review of their model. It determines 14 endogenous variables:
output, consumption, investment, the price of capital, the capital stock, capital services, the capital utilization
rate, labor supply, the interest rate, the inflation rate, the rental rate on capital, the wage rate, the marginal
product of labor, and the marginal rate of substitution between work and consumption. The 14 equations include
forward looking consumption, investment, price and wage setting as well as several identities.

History conveys: Syndicalism stays veiled from public discernment and will be rendered later for the purpose of Capital and Labor Responsibilities of systemic misnomers. The Austrian’s call it the master builder dilemma and I agree to what I found to be painfully true in any context to date. To many items we do not need from market “global” saturation points and the loss of core sanity hinging on energy petro dollars losses which will sponge out base monetary supports as we have seen given the markets true exchanges noted to date. Basically the vanilla investors have wised up "Gone" and moved elsewhere from equity it appears as such. Auto can breathe enough for a few years but the tide is still going out given forward demand will dissipate since the cart is ahead of the Horse on market demand. For many decades they deny balance and they wonder why we discern that there cheerful to useful idiots may be there maximum liability when they awake.

Free trade only exists to stabilize vunerable democracy's going left and is the same as welfare on your dime as we are bleed dry since Ms. Schwab trade secratary then stated there concern is about loopholes and not balance. Susan Schwab, US trade representative, said such exemptions would defeat the object of the talks, to create trade flows. “As we went through the layers of loopholes . . . we discovered that a couple of our trading partners were more interested in loopholes than market access,” she said.

Stock up and plan for Stagflation. Yes we must stabilize given what priority? We have seen this playbook before have we not.

http://stockchartist.blogspot.com/