Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Why did Senator Chuck Schumer say that trump sold out in regards to the trade deal that is in the works? What is your take on phase 1 of the agreement?

The Democrats have shown themselves to be angry, hysterical, and
hormonal men and women, totally irrational and a completely out of
control mob for the last three years. What will they do in the next
four years? It's not pleasant to contemplate.

However, let's remember that we're still headed for war with China.
When a "regeneracy event" occurs, such as a major military setback or
a major attack on American soil, then the entire country, both
Democrats and Republicans, will put aside their political differences
and unite behind the president, just as they did after the attack on
Pearl Harbor and the Bataan Death March.

What if the 2020 election goes ahead and there is no war with China or Iran? Couldn't a civil war erupt? Your premise seems to rest on war uniting the country, but what if war doesn't happen until, let's say, 2023, then what?

** 14-Dec-2019 Schumer's statement

Guest wrote: > Why did Senator Chuck Schumer say that trump sold out in regards
> to the trade deal that is in the works? What is your take on phase
> 1 of the agreement?

Trump's problem is to use tariffs to change China's behavior without
getting the CCP so angry that they break off communications and
retaliate. So Trump is walking a line, threading a needle (choose
your own metaphor).

Schumer is making a political statement. He may or not believe
what he's saying. He may be criticizing Trump for some reason
related to the impeachment.

** 15-Dec-2019 World View: Uniting the country

> The Democrats have shown themselves to be angry, hysterical, and
> hormonal men and women, totally irrational and a completely out of
> control mob for the last three years. What will they do in the
> next four years? It's not pleasant to contemplate.

> However, let's remember that we're still headed for war with
> China. When a "regeneracy event" occurs, such as a major military
> setback or a major attack on American soil, then the entire
> country, both Democrats and Republicans, will put aside their
> political differences and unite behind the president, just as they
> did after the attack on Pearl Harbor and the Bataan Death
> March.

Guest wrote: > What if the 2020 election goes ahead and there is no war with
> China or Iran? Couldn't a civil war erupt? Your premise seems to
> rest on war uniting the country, but what if war doesn't happen
> until, let's say, 2023, then what?

First off, we're not going to war with Iran. Iran is becoming more
and more pro-Western and pro-American every day, as the old geezers
who survived the 1979 civil war die off, and the younger generations
embrace the West.

As I said in the article, for the last ten years the Democrats have
been increasingly willing to incite violence against the 63 million
smelly, loathsome, hated Tea Partiers / Trump supporters. I expect
this use of violence to increase, especially if Democrats have to face
the horror of another four years with the same 63 million smelly,
loathsome, hated Tea Partiers / Trump supporters in control.

So I expect the incidents and intensity of violence to continue to
increase. The violence won't go too far for an ironic reason: The
people with the guns are Tea Partiers, who are Second Amendment
supporters.

However, as I've said many times, there is absolutely no sign
whatsoever that this is leading to a civil war. Maybe if the Tea
Partiers managed to control the presidency for another 20 years we
might get to that point, but we're nowhere near it now. A Democratic
presidential victory in 2024 would bring the worst of the violence to
an end at that time.

Most of all, a "regeneracy event," such as a Chinese missile attack on
the United States or even on Taiwan or Japan, would cause the
population, both Republicans and Democrats, to put aside their
political differences and unite behind the president.

** 15-Dec-2019 World View: Chaos Theory and World War

FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > Apparently, the US and USSR actually WEREN'T truly existential
> threats to one another!

> ..how wacky is that to discover after all this time,.. and
> expense!? <chuckle, chuckle, chuckle!>

I agree, but that didn't stop the two sides from THINKING that they
were mutual existential threats.

FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > As you've said, the REALLY REAL existential threat to China is
> CHINA! China is most worried about the internal threat of their
> own population who seem addicted to regular-ish rebellion.

> ..but they try to maintain their "stability" through demonizing
> "outside powers".

> I suppose that one could surmise that we should have known that
> Russia and the US weren't really existential threats to one
> another long long ago simple by the fact that we hadn't
> "exponentially heightened" our mutual antagonisms into war
> somewhere in the 1970's or 1980's,.. or more likely the
> 1960's.

That's an interesting way of looking at, and it seems to be valid.

FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > So, how do we decide that there will be war between antagonists,
> if not by their mutual level of antagonism?

> ..we "know" there will be war because their generational
> condition(s) "matches" the "gotta have a WAR!" template for (one
> or both of) the belligerents.

> BUT,.. it is possible to speed up or slow down the commencement of
> a war by being "naughty or nice" to "the enemy", while the
> inevitability of said war is not effected at all.

Now you've REALLY hit on something extremely complicated that I've
been writing on the edges of, but never fully developed. I love
dangling prepositions. Don't you?

Anyway, I'll start with one of my favorite examples, that I mention
frequently: The 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Arguably, everybody already "knew" that a war between Israel and
Lebanon would be coming some day, but didn't know when. Various
diplomatic steps were being taken all the time -- by the Lebanese, the
Israelis, the United Nations, the United States, Russia, and other
interested parties to prevent such a war, or at least to postpone it
as long as possible.

However, as it turned out, all those massive diplomatic steps were
100% USELESS. Here's what happened on or around July 12, 2006:

• Two Israeli soldiers just happened to be patrolling near the
  border with Lebanon.
• Some members of the Hezbollah militia just happened to see them,
  and decided to cross the border and abduct them.
• Israel's government went into a state of total panic.
• Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called this "an act of war,"
  and within a few hours, Israel was mobilized for war.
• Israel launched the war with no plan and no objective. Each day,
  Israel lurched from one plan and objective to the next, as the
  previous one failed. In the end, the war was a disaster for both
  Israel and Lebanon, and accomplished nothing except the destruction of
  a lot of Lebanon's infrastructure. The war fizzled quickly because
  Lebanon and Hezbollah were in a generational Awakening era.

So all that multi-national diplomacy was for nothing, because of a
chaotic event that could not be predicted: That Israel's government
went into a state of total panic.

So, that brings us back to your question: Can you speed up or delay an
inevitable war? If it's a war triggered by a chaotic event during a
generational Crisis era, then the answer is NO. There's no action
that you can take that will either cause or prevent such a war, or
that will speed up or delay such a war.

This takes us to the concepts of Chaos Theory. You cannot predict,
cause, delay or speed up a chaotic event.

The iconic example is that if a butterfly flaps its wings in China,
then it will trigger a chain of events that could cause a hurricane in
North America.

So you might say, "Gee, it would be fun to take a trip to Beijing, and
while I'm there I'll get a butterfly to flap its wings and cause a
hurricane in North America."

Obviously that won't work, because there's more to the iconic example.
A butterfly flapping its wings in China will almost certainly have no
effect at all, but it MIGHT cause a hurricane in North America, or it
MIGHT prevent a hurricane from occurring that otherwise would have
occurred, or it MIGHT speed up or delay such a hurricane. It's
impossible to predict.

So all those diplomatic efforts to prevent a war between Israel and
Hezbollah might actually have CAUSED the war. For example, maybe it
was because of all those diplomatic efforts that both Israel's
military and Hezbollah's militia were patrolling on opposite sides of
the border on July 12, 2006, resulting in the abduction and the war.
Maybe if there hadn't been any diplomatic efforts, there wouldn't have
been a war at all. It's impossible to say, one way or the other.

However, there's another important side to all this: Preparation.

You can't take steps to cause, prevent, speed up or delay a chaotic
event that triggers a war, but if you know that the war is inevitable,
then you can prepare for the war, and you can try to prevent your
enemy from preparing.

So China's military is preparing for war by heavily subsidizing Huawei
and TikTok, and both are wildly successful at collecting massive
amounts of information to be stored in China's massive big data social
database. This will give China the information it needs to bribe or
threaten any Western politician or soldier at any time, or to take
complete control of foreign networks at time of war.

Trump is preparing for war by increasing the defense budget.

Trump is using the trade dispute as a means to cripple the Chinese
military's supply chain, in order to weaken it. Trump is also
blocking use of Huawei in the networks of America and its allies.

None of these steps will prevent a war. In fact, as I've pointed out
many times, the US established an embargo on oil and gasoline exports
to Japan on August 1, 1941, and on December 7, Japan bombed Pearl
Harbor. A lot of people have said (and I've said) that the US embargo
resulted in the Pearl Harbor bombing, but in fact it's far from clear
whether the Pearl Harbor bombing would have occurred anyway.

So will Trump's US-China trade sanctions cause a war with China? I
happen to believe not. I still expect the war to be triggered by some
trivial event, the equivalent of the abduction of two soldiers,
occurring in Kashmir, the Mideast, the South China Sea, Central Asia,
or anywhere else.

This brings us back to the statement by Carlos Gutierrez that I was
criticizing on Friday, the implication that by merely calling China a
strategic threat, then you will cause a war with China. As I've said,
there is no way to cause, prevent, speed up or delay an inevitable war
with China, least of all by calling China a strategic threat.

John, I refer you to a great technothriller writer I follow and his latest book Veracity.
It is about the invention of a perfect lie detector that works over video or otherwise surreptitiously.
China wants to get it and keep America from getting it.
In the Afterword, the author tells how he had really had his eyes opened researching the book. He had thought that China was moderating and would not be a threat to America, but totally revised this opinion to hold that China is a peril to the United States and the world.
https://www.amazon.com/Veracity-Douglas ... B07NKP8XH7

Obviously that won't work, because there's more to the iconic example.
A butterfly flapping its wings in China will almost certainly have no
effect at all, but it MIGHT cause a hurricane in North America, or it
MIGHT prevent a hurricane from occurring that otherwise would have
occurred, or it MIGHT speed up or delay such a hurricane. It's
impossible to predict.

Quibble:
Actually, Chaos theory says that the butterfly does make a difference. That's not the problem. The problem is that all the billions of other butterflies in the world, not to mention houseflies, mosquitos. seagulls, and gnats (and everything else, of course) are also making differences, by the trillion every second, and you can't separate them all out from each other.

** 15-Dec-2019 World View: Karma

Tom Mazanec wrote: > John, I refer you to a great technothriller writer I follow and
> his latest book Veracity.

> It is about the invention of a perfect lie detector that works
> over video or otherwise surreptitiously.

> China wants to get it and keep America from getting it.

> In the Afterword, the author tells how he had really had his eyes
> opened researching the book. He had thought that China was
> moderating and would not be a threat to America, but totally
> revised this opinion to hold that China is a peril to the United
> States and the world.

> https://www.amazon.com/Veracity-Douglas ... B07NKP8XH7

China is unique in world history in that they've never done a good
thing for any other country except to exploit good deeds by other
countries. Whether it's the United Nations, WTO, the climate
conference, the law of the sea, the BRI, or anything else, the world
reaches out to China to help them and to make them a welcome part of
the world community, and they take advantage of that help and kindness
to exploit others and harm others. They even continue to claim that
they're an "underdeveloped nation," which makes me want to vomit.
They constantly demand that everyone else obey international law, but
they claim that no international law or international contract that
they've signed applies to them.

The United States and other Western countries -- and in fact all other
countries -- do lots of good deeds to help people in other countries.
But not China. I've studied China, and I've written a book on China.

I'm not aware of any good that China has ever done for someone else
except to exploit them. Even Putin sometimes tries to help other
people. But not China. Not ever.

This is because of the Chinese view that they're the Master Race and
everyone else is a barbarian. America is kinder to rattlesnakes and
desert rats than China is to people of any other nation. The American
population is diverse ethnically, religiously and nationally. The
American people see themselves as the same as people anywhere else in
the world, except that we're lucky enough to live in the greatest and
most exceptional country of the world. But the CCP don't see any
point in being kind or helpful to anyone else because all other people
are barbarians and worth less than desert rats.

More and more, China appears to me to be pure evil. I'm not a
religious person, but I do believe in Karma or Karuma (the Japanese
word for Karma) or Kismet or comeuppance. China is headed for its own
self-destruction, and will take much of the rest of the world with it
as it can.

John wrote:... Now you've REALLY hit on something extremely complicated that I've
been writing on the edges of, but never fully developed. I love
dangling prepositions. Don't you?

Yes, I love writing on the edges of, too,.. a lot!

... So all that multi-national diplomacy was for nothing, because of a
chaotic event that could not be predicted: That Israel's government
went into a state of total panic.

Once again, as you've said, mobs (groups) can't avoid panic, but individuals can (avoid panic), usually.

I think one place where (most) people can't avoid panic is that visceral "a brain eating boring worm has just slithered into my ear" type occurrence.

Groups have those visceral panics when their "innocent" members are brutally abused by "the enemy".

Direct insult and de-personalization (being treated as an "animal") of an "innocent" member will make a group abjectly indignant to the point of panic ridden flailing hostility.

I don't KNOW this, but I suspect that EVERY gen-crisis war "trivial" trigger was an example of this kind of indignant outrage panic trigger.

So, that brings us back to your question: Can you speed up or delay an
inevitable war? If it's a war triggered by a chaotic event during a
generational Crisis era, then the answer is NO. There's no action
that you can take that will either cause or prevent such a war, or
that will speed up or delay such a war.

I don't fully agree with that.

You can't change the inevitability of it, but you can ACCIDENTALLY speed it up or slow it down by "inoculating" (desensitizing) the "population" from "panic reacting" to the various possible panic stimuli.

I personally believe that "war video gaming" and the media and politicians actively promoting open SJW-vs-Normalcy verbal and physical violence is a "scattershot" attempt to desensitize/inoculate people to triggers from "outsiders" whereby they (the "outsider") would "brutally de-humanize members" by "accident" or "less than massively provocative" intent.

Basically, if de-humanization is "normal" then people are less likely to "overreact" to those stimuli.

..we put up with MUCH more indignation, without "panicking", than our parents would have, and in fact I put up with much more than I would have put up with only a handful or two years ago.

This takes us to the concepts of Chaos Theory. You cannot predict,
cause, delay or speed up a chaotic event.

The iconic example is that if a butterfly flaps its wings in China,
then it will trigger a chain of events that could cause a hurricane in
North America....

You CAN dampen or speed up a chaotic system, if you know one (or more) of it's resonant frequencies, AND you know what to do with that information.

High power chaotic processes are generally NOT "stoppable" by "puny" applications of force, and ALL societal chaotic processes are HUGE power flows, and most "socially acceptable" applications of social force are indeed "puny", so people trying to "steer" chaotic social systems is a bit of a joke.

But people (of ENORMOUS ego and hubris, aka: brave stupidity) do try to do so, which occasionally takes the form of very socially non-acceptable methods,.. which if "timed just right" (within the context/environment of said chaotic social system that is wished to influence) brings on...

... Genocidal Crisis War.

So all those diplomatic efforts to prevent a war between Israel and
Hezbollah might actually have CAUSED the war. For example, maybe it
was because of all those diplomatic efforts that both Israel's
military and Hezbollah's militia were patrolling on opposite sides of
the border on July 12, 2006, resulting in the abduction and the war....

There are too many trivial variables that are very influential in these chaotic systems to "find" and keep track of to make "suppressing war triggers" very effective.

But, that really doesn't matter much, because the system is gonna do what it's gonna do, regardless, and the "inevitable" outcomes are relatively easy to see.

However, there's another important side to all this: Preparation.

You can't take steps to cause, prevent, speed up or delay a chaotic
event that triggers a war, but if you know that the war is inevitable,
then you can prepare for the war, and you can try to prevent your
enemy from preparing.

And of course THAT is the "creative" part of the "cyclic impulse" system that GenDynamics describes!

The reason that we (and all negentropic systems) MUST go through this cycle is to continue the evolution of the (focused upon cyclic) system.

The birth to death, with early mid-stream reproduction, system provides a ratcheting rearranging method to "safely" improve a system over time.

To wish to obliterate "war" is to wish to obliterate "birth".

If humans (or any other negentropic entity category) REALLY understood that war is birth, and the obverse, then the "much less pleasant" parts of both would be made MUCH more pleasant.

... As I've said, there is no way to cause, prevent, speed up or delay an inevitable war with China, least of all by calling China a strategic threat.

That can only be said, accurately, in retrospect.

We'll have to have some patience to find out.

But, considering the utter incompetence and ineffectuality of ANY whining "politician", it's highly unlikely that any of their squeeking and chirping will have any effect on anything.

John wrote:** 15-Dec-2019 World View: Karma

Tom Mazanec wrote: > John, I refer you to a great technothriller writer I follow and
> his latest book Veracity.

> It is about the invention of a perfect lie detector that works
> over video or otherwise surreptitiously.

> China wants to get it and keep America from getting it.

> In the Afterword, the author tells how he had really had his eyes
> opened researching the book. He had thought that China was
> moderating and would not be a threat to America, but totally
> revised this opinion to hold that China is a peril to the United
> States and the world.

> https://www.amazon.com/Veracity-Douglas ... B07NKP8XH7

China is unique in world history in that they've never done a good
thing for any other country except to exploit good deeds by other
countries. ...

More and more, China appears to me to be pure evil. I'm not a
religious person, but I do believe in Karma or Karuma (the Japanese
word for Karma) or Kismet or comeuppance. China is headed for its own
self-destruction, and will take much of the rest of the world with it
as it can.

Quibble: If you believe in "Kismet/et al", then you're religious.

..but that's a distinction without a difference, as we're all, by "biological definition", religious.

(( ..you can't be a negentropic entity without "belief" [predictive apprehension], and being "religious" is nothing more [whatsoever] than possessing one or more [almost always many more] beliefs. ))

"Racism" is by definition pure evil.

A society constructed on the foundation of racism is (obviously) evil.

Chinese society is evil. But while people are heavily influenced by their society, they are simply people.

Remove the cancer that is racism, and people adjust.

Is that why, perhaps, the Chinese people are "allowing" their evil rulers to choose an obvious path to suicide,.. so as to free them?

"..as an inconsequential cog in a vast evil racist machine, where I have no power but to choose between existence and nonexistence, might "hope", or simple curiosity, motivate me to continue watching the all-surrounding grotesque beastly machine stride the obvious path toward it's grinding extinction?

..what do I have better to do?"