Generational theory, international history and current events
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Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Aug 02, 2020 2:15 pmThe collapse in the birth rate continued in Q4 2019, though it does appear to be slowing. The collapse should pick up speed again when the post coronavirus numbers come in in a couple quarters.Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:19 pm There was a massive collapse in the birth rate in Q3 2019. I've been anticipating this collapse because it's my belief that the US went from recession to depression 3 quarters prior to Q3 2019 in terms of what the common person of prime reproductive age in the US is actually experiencing.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/nata ... hboard.htm
The 12 month-ending birth rate(s) increased when comparing 2018 Q3 with 2019 Q3 for the following age group(s):
40-44 years (11.8 to 11.9).
The 12 month-ending birth rate(s) decreased when comparing 2018 Q3 with 2019 Q3 for the following age group(s):
15-19 years (17.7 to 16.7).
20-24 years (68.8 to 66.2).
25-29 years (95.9 to 93.1).
30-34 years (100.0 to 97.8).
35-39 years (52.6 to 52.3).
The 12 month-ending birth rate(s) increased when comparing 2018 Q4 with 2019 Q4 for the following age group(s):
40-44 years (11.8 to 12.0).
The 12 month-ending birth rate(s) decreased when comparing 2018 Q4 with 2019 Q4 for the following age group(s):
15-19 years (17.4 to 16.6).
20-24 years (68.0 to 66.6).
25-29 years (95.3 to 93.7).
30-34 years (99.7 to 98.3).
No significant change was seen in the 12 month-ending birth rate(s) when comparing 2018 Q4 with 2019 Q4 for the following age group(s):
35-39 years (52.6 to 52.7).
45+ years (0.9 to 0.9).
In June the Brookings Institution released a study predicting the U.S. is headed for “a large, lasting baby bust.” Its researchers forecast there will be 300,000 to 500,000 fewer children born in the U.S. in 2021 than there would have been absent the crisis, which amounts to a decrease of roughly 10% from 2019. That means the number of babies never born is likely to greatly exceed the number of Americans who’ve died from coronavirus, which is now about 150,000. The effect on population will be longer-lasting as well: Many of the babies who aren’t being born would have lived into the 22nd century.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -in-crisisIn the second half of the 20th century, the pattern in the U.S. and elsewhere was that fertility tended to fall during recessions and then bounce back when the economy recovered. Demographers expected that to happen after the 2007-09 recession, which at the time had been the deepest since the Depression. “People put off having children during the economic downturn and then catch up on fertility once economic conditions improve,” Pew Research Center wrote in an October 2011 report.
But the pattern broke. The post-recession rebound never came even as the U.S. economy staged the longest expansion on record. Birthrates for women in their 20s, which had dropped 25% or more during and shortly after the recession, kept falling, and they stayed flat for women in their 30s. “Had prerecessionary fertility patterns been sustained through 2019, there would have been 6.6 million more births, and nearly 3 million more women would have had their first child over the last 11 years,” says Kenneth Johnson, a sociologist and demographer at the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy.
Early indicators point to the birthrate moving down another notch in this recession. The Wedding Report Inc. says its surveys show that slightly over 60% of weddings scheduled for 2020 have been postponed until later this year or 2021. That’s bound to delay some couples from starting a family.
Also, when the pandemic broke out, birth control providers reported an increase in sales from people stocking up in case of shortages. Some sources have also seen a bump in demand for long-lasting forms of birth control. The Pill Club Holdings Inc. logged a 65% increase in June in new patient requests for Annovera, a vaginal ring that prevents pregnancy for up to a year.
